Ekonominin belki de en ilgi \u00e7ekici taraf\u0131, piyasan\u0131n z\u0131t kutuplar \u00fczerine i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesidir.\u00a0 Diyelim ki T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcmek istiyor. Bu durumda ne yap\u0131yoruz. \u0130thalat\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131rarak, ithalattan al\u0131nan vergi gelirlerinde ki art\u0131\u015f ile, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fckseltiyoruz. Ancak bir yandan da cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyoruz. Tam tersi durumda ise, ekonominin so\u011fumas\u0131n\u0131 istiyorsak,\u00a0 bu sefer faiz koridorunu y\u00fckselterek, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, kredi taleplerini frenlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bu durumda ise, i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimin azalmas\u0131 ve ithalat\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 nedeni cari a\u00e7\u0131k daral\u0131yor. Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131 g\u00fczel bir geli\u015fme olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen,\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme de sorun ya\u015famaya ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz. ve ekonomide k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme d\u00f6nemine giriyoruz. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 itibari ile, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de\u00a0 tasarruflar\u0131n, GSMH\u2019ye oran\u0131\u00a0 % 12 olarak ifade ediliyor. Bu rakamlar, bundan 10 \u2013 15\u00a0 y\u0131l kadar \u00f6nce, Mahfi E\u011e\u0130LMEZ hocam\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na g\u00f6re,\u00a0 daha y\u00fcksekti. T\u00fcrkiye de ekonomiyi y\u00f6netenler, tasarruflar\u0131n GSMH\u2019ya oran\u0131n\u0131n % 15 ve daha yukar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ancak,\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019 nin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n gelecek aylarda ve 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7inde\u00a0 artmas\u0131 i\u00e7in de Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizleri indirip gaza basmas\u0131 isteniyor. \u015eimdi merak etti\u011fim soru \u015fu, hem b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131z, hem tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmak isteyece\u011fiz, hem de cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daraltmak i\u00e7in \u00e7aba sarf edece\u011fiz. Yapabilirsek de i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutarak, istihdam\u0131 artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131z.\u00a0 \u0130\u015fte bu d\u00f6rt g\u00f6stergeyi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek, \u015fu an ki konjonkt\u00fcrde son derece zor. Yaz\u0131m\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda belirtti\u011fim, z\u0131t kutuplar i\u00e7inde s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p kal\u0131yoruz. TCMB, bug\u00fcn ki Para Politikas\u0131 Kurul toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131, faiz koridorunda ki \u00fcst band\u0131; % 9,5\u2019e \u00e7ekti. Rezerv Opsiyon Katsay\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da ( ROK) 0,1 puan y\u00fckselterek, TCMB d\u00f6viz rezervlerini artt\u0131rarak, piyasan\u0131n likit kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131 ve bankalar\u0131n fonlama maliyetlerini azaltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu durumda, yar\u0131ndan itibaren, bankalar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli kredi kampanyalar\u0131 ile, t\u00fcketim \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesini sa\u011flayacak, b\u00fcy\u00fcme rasyomuz y\u00fckselse bile, tasarruflar da ki % 12 oran\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 m\u0131 inecek, yukar\u0131 m\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacak hep birlikte g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Umar\u0131m, i\u00e7 talep de ki art\u0131\u015f, T\u00dcFE\u2019yi etkilemez ve tasarruflar\u0131n GSMH oran\u0131 % 10 seviyelerine gerilemez. Bu olumlu havaya ra\u011fmen, sanayi \u00fcretiminde g\u00f6receli bir art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanmaz ve Avrupa\u2019da devam eden kronik bor\u00e7 krizi depresyon yaratmaya devam ederse T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeni d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 krizlere kar\u015f\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 duyarl\u0131 hale gelebilir.<\/p>