{"id":20455,"date":"2012-10-05T15:07:53","date_gmt":"2012-10-05T13:07:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=20455"},"modified":"2012-10-05T15:08:01","modified_gmt":"2012-10-05T13:08:01","slug":"savastik-baristik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/savastik-baristik\/","title":{"rendered":"Sava\u015ft\u0131k&#8230;Bar\u0131\u015ft\u0131k&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>Yine para piyasalar\u0131nda m\u00fcthi\u015f bir haftay\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1035883095\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sava\u015ft\u0131k\u2026Bar\u0131\u015ft\u0131k\u2026Yok..Yoktu\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Fakat bunlardan \u00f6nce birka\u00e7 konuya sard\u0131m bunlar\u0131 sizlerle payla\u015fmak istiyorum\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Son d\u00f6nemde Meclis\u2019te gelen vergilerle do\u011fru orant\u0131l\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde ekonomiden sorumlu ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f var.Diyeceksiniz ki Sanane \u00d6zavc\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Hay\u0131r \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm odakl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar g\u00f6rece\u011fimizi bilsem b\u00fct\u00fcn milletvekilleri ekonomiden sorumlu olsun..Fakat ilk t\u00f6kezlemede sopay\u0131 alan ya Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n ya da bankalar\u0131n pe\u015fine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fcnen tablo \u201cSen a\u011fa ben a\u011fa inekleri kim sa\u011fa?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u015eikayetim var\u2026C\u00fcmle yasaktan\u2026Dillerimi hakim bey ba\u011flasan durmaz\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u015eaka bir yana yi\u011fidi \u00f6ld\u00fcr hakk\u0131n\u0131 ver..Demi\u015fler verelim\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2218578684\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bakan \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 eylem plan\u0131n\u0131 olumlu bir ad\u0131m oldu\u011funu ve bu konunun \u00fczerinde \u015fiddetle durulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi taraftar\u0131y\u0131m.Ge\u00e7en hafta yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m i\u00e7in kafan\u0131z\u0131 \u015fi\u015firmeyeyim ama hepimizin bir a\u011f\u0131zdan \u015fikayet etti\u011fi dolayl\u0131 vergilere gelen zamlardan kurtulman\u0131n yolu buradan ge\u00e7iyor\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Ve tabi ki Ali Babacan\u2026Ekonomiden sorumlu bakan oldu\u011funda 40 ya\u015f\u0131ndayd\u0131..<\/p>\n<p>Nereden biliyorum..\u0130lk televizyona \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u201cbu \u00e7ocuk mu ekonomiyi y\u00f6netecek\u201d demi\u015flerdi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Nitekim duru\u015funu hi\u00e7 bozmad\u0131.Ele\u015ftirilere verdi\u011fi yan\u0131t\u0131n dozunu hep ayn\u0131 tuttu.M\u00fctevazili\u011fi ile ger\u00e7ekten koltu\u011funun hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u2026Ne var yani bende 27 ya\u015f\u0131nda Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr Yard\u0131mc\u0131\u2019s\u0131 oldum\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2830017009\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Benim i\u00e7inde \u201cbu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck k\u0131z m\u0131 ekonomiyi anlat\u0131yor\u201d diyorlar duyuyorum.Merak edenler i\u00e7in efendim ya\u015f\u0131m \u015fu an 33\u202612 y\u0131ld\u0131r bu i\u015fi yap\u0131yorum\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetle kim ne derse desin\u2026Ekonomi de temel \u201cg\u00fcven\u201dden ge\u00e7er\u2026G\u00fcven ortam\u0131n\u0131 koruyamazs\u0131n\u0131z insanlar\u0131n cebine para koysan\u0131z da o paran\u0131n ekonomiye harcama olarak d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc sa\u011flayamazs\u0131n\u0131z\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Baz\u0131lar\u0131 paray\u0131 sa\u00e7arsan\u0131z(yada faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrseniz)ekonominin canlanaca\u011f\u0131 hayaline kap\u0131l\u0131r.Ancak paran\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc gelece\u011fe dair hayaller ve kayg\u0131lar belirler\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Faiz indiriminin etkilerini g\u00f6zlemlemek ad\u0131na bankalar\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz oranlar\u0131na bakt\u0131m.G\u00f6r\u00fclen tabloda kredi aya\u011f\u0131nda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zel bankalar\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konut ve ihtiya\u00e7 kredisi oranlar\u0131 birbirine olduk\u00e7a yak\u0131n\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Konutta oranlar %0,94-%1,15 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u0130htiya\u00e7 ve destek kredisi aya\u011f\u0131nda % 1,27-% 1,65 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen faiz oranlar\u0131 uygulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Uygulanan oranlar\u0131n konut k\u0131sm\u0131nda enflasyon beklentileriyle do\u011fru orant\u0131l\u0131 ve bence var olan seviye makul.\u0130htiya\u00e7 ve destek kredileri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z riskli kredi kapsam\u0131na girdi\u011fi i\u00e7in faiz oran\u0131 elbette konut kredisinden y\u00fcksek olacak ancak bence a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in bir miktar daha yeri var\u2026 E\u011fer harcama aya\u011f\u0131nda kredi \u00fczerinden b\u00fcy\u00fcme canland\u0131r\u0131lmak isteniyor ise bu hareketin kamu bankalar\u0131 \u00f6nderli\u011finde olmas\u0131nda fayda var.Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn genel ve hakl\u0131 kayg\u0131s\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama\u00a0 ile birlikte sorunlu krediler(geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olmayan)taraf\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f ve likidite probleminin ya\u015fanabilece\u011fidir.Hakl\u0131 bir kayg\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme sadece kredi odakl\u0131 desteklenemez.Ancak b\u00fct\u00e7ede ya\u015fanan bozulma nedeniyle Maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme destek olabilece\u011fi alan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gelelim as\u0131l konumuza\u2026Para piyasalar\u0131\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Suriye ile ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gerginli\u011fin s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmemesi sonucu para piyasalar\u0131nda tansiyon d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.Ancak unutulmamas\u0131 gereken bu olayda 2 soru vard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Biri gerginlik t\u0131rmanacak m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>\u015eu an bulundu\u011fumuz noktaya derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n tepkisi ne olacak?<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lk sorumuzun yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 ald\u0131k.Ancak ikinci sorunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 hen\u00fcz bilmiyoruz\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Ekim ay\u0131nda bu konu ile ilgili a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n gelmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Yine hafta i\u00e7i i\u00e7eride enflasyon verisi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.Beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde gelen veri ile y\u0131l sonu enflasyonu \u015fu an % 9,19\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131 ve bu rakama t\u00fcm zamlar yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f de\u011fil.Ekim ay\u0131nda do\u011falgaz ve elektrik zamlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle y\u00fcksek enflasyonla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lacak olmas\u0131 tedirginli\u011fi artt\u0131rabilir.Son gelen zamlar\u0131n enflasyona etkisinin\u00a0 %1,16 olaca\u011f\u0131 hesaplan\u0131yor.\u015eu an faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131 10.Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla enflasyonun geldi\u011fi nokta Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimlerine sekte vurabilir.Yine de y\u0131lsonuna kadar 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirim daha g\u00f6rece\u011fimizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta i\u00e7eride cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve sanayi \u00fcretimi verilerini takip edece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130MKB\u2019nin alt\u0131n\u0131 dolduran tek bir beklenti kald\u0131\u2026O da not art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\u2026Ve ya derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan not hakk\u0131nda negatif bir a\u00e7\u0131klama\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7eride b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinini sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar(olumlu) ,iyile\u015fen cari a\u00e7\u0131k verisi(olumlu) ,yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme(olumsuz) ve y\u00fckselen enflasyon(olumsuz),T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin olu\u015fan jeopolitik riskleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde her iki ad\u0131ma verdi\u011fim olas\u0131l\u0131k\u00a0 %50-50<\/p>\n<p>Temkinli olmay\u0131 tercih ederim\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Abd taraf\u0131nda bilan\u00e7o sezonu ba\u015fl\u0131yor.Dow Jones endeksi bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6nemlerinde genelde iyi bir performans sergiler.Her ne kadar bu sezon karl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik beklentiler \u00e7ok olumlu de\u011filse de Fed Aral\u0131kta varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fletilece\u011fi (40 milyar dolarl\u0131k mortgage tahvili yan\u0131nda 40 milyar dolarl\u0131k daha devlet tahvili alabilece\u011fi) sinyalini veriyor.\u00d6zetle k\u00f6t\u00fc veri Fed.\u0130yi veri iyi veri oyunu Kas\u0131m se\u00e7imlerine kadar devam edecek.<\/p>\n<p>6 Kas\u0131m\u2019dan sonra yeni bir d\u00fcnyaya uyanabiliriz.Bu tarihten sonras\u0131na dikkat edilmeli..<\/p>\n<p>Uyuyan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uyan\u0131\u015f\u0131 vs gibi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa\u2019da \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ekici!?\u201d teklifine ne kadar dayanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 takip ediyoruz.21 Ekim beklenen bence dayanabildi\u011fi kadar direnecek.Yunanistan konusu hala masada\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Ve haftaya Avrupa\u2019da sanayi \u00fcretimi verilerini takip edece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fin teknik k\u0131sm\u0131na gelince..<\/p>\n<p>Alt\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz sebep yok.D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler hala sadece d\u00fczeltme.1800 ayl\u0131k iyi bir diren\u00e7.Ge\u00e7ilebilirse 1930 hedef olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Parite 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131 1,2825 alt\u0131na gelmemekte kararl\u0131\u20261,3045-1,3170 diren\u00e7ler\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Almanya(dax) endeksi 7100(50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Hareketli ortalama) destek takip edilmeli.<\/p>\n<p>7370-7490 diren\u00e7 seviyeleri\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Dolar 1,81-1,78 Tl bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hareket..<\/p>\n<p>\u0130MKB:66,200 (50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama)destek kritik takip edilmeli.Yukar\u0131da 67,800dire\u00e7..<\/p>\n<p>68,500 diren\u00e7 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilirse yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket sertle\u015febilir.<\/p>\n<p>Son not:Ne demi\u015fler\u2026 \u201cE\u015fe\u011fin kuyru\u011funu kalabal\u0131kta kesme biri uzun biri k\u0131sa der&#8230;\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yine para piyasalar\u0131nda m\u00fcthi\u015f bir haftay\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k\u2026 Sava\u015ft\u0131k\u2026Bar\u0131\u015ft\u0131k\u2026Yok..Yoktu\u2026 Fakat bunlardan \u00f6nce birka\u00e7 konuya sard\u0131m bunlar\u0131 sizlerle payla\u015fmak istiyorum\u2026 Son d\u00f6nemde Meclis\u2019te gelen vergilerle do\u011fru&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14450,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20455","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20455"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20455\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20455"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20455"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20455"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}