{"id":20377,"date":"2012-10-04T07:17:52","date_gmt":"2012-10-04T05:17:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=20377"},"modified":"2012-10-04T07:18:01","modified_gmt":"2012-10-04T05:18:01","slug":"gercekten-bir-savas-cikar-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/gercekten-bir-savas-cikar-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ger\u00e7ekten Bir Sava\u015f \u00c7\u0131kar m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ile Suriye aras\u0131nda ipler gerildi. D\u00fc\u015fen bir top mermisi, hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybeden vatanda\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z, yaralananlar, akabinde ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc toplant\u0131 ve \u2018nokta vuru\u015flar\u2019 ile misilleme yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131\u2026 Peki ger\u00e7ekten bir sava\u015f \u00e7\u0131kar m\u0131?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-386114015\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Elbette kimsenin akl\u0131n\u0131 okumak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re bu sorunun do\u011fru yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 bilmemiz m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu \u00fclkede ak\u0131l uzun s\u00fcredir tatilde\u2026 O zaman resmin detaylar\u0131na bakarak bir fikir edinmemiz gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Uzun s\u00fcredir b\u00f6lgede sava\u015f \u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131rtkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapan ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de direkt cepheye s\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ellerinden geleni ard\u0131na koymayanlar\u0131n durum de\u011ferlendirmesini yapmak \u015fart. Ba\u015fta ABD, b\u00f6yle bir sava\u015fa s\u0131cak bakar m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>\u015eu \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda ve se\u00e7ime giderken, kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan \u00f6nce b\u00f6ylesi bir harekete Amerika\u2019n\u0131n ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sanm\u0131yorum. Fakat kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tabloya istinaden yeniden de\u011ferlendirme yapma ihtiyac\u0131 do\u011facakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca o \u015fartta bile ABD\u2019nin direkt m\u00fcdahil olma ihtimali, i\u00e7 kamuoyu bask\u0131s\u0131 ve mali portresi nedeniyle g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Obama\u2019n\u0131n konu\u015fmalar\u0131nda sadece bir c\u00fcmle Suriye\u2019den bahsediyor olmas\u0131 da, bu tezin en az\u0131ndan se\u00e7imlere kadar ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcndeminde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6nelim Avrupa\u2019ya\u2026 ABD\u2019ye oranla daha hantal bir yap\u0131 sergileyen ve i\u00e7te ekonomik, siyasi sorunlarla bo\u011fu\u015fan Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n da bu i\u015fe bug\u00fcn \u2018evet\u2019 demesi zor. \u0130ran, Rusya fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn de etkisiyle bu b\u00f6lgedeki bir operasyon Kuzey Afrika ya da Irak\u2019tan daha netameli bir durum ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u0130spanya, Portekiz, \u0130talya ve Yunanistan ile u\u011fra\u015fan AB\u2019nin bu a\u015famada farkl\u0131 konsantrasyonlar\u0131 var.<\/p>\n<p>Her ikisini ayn\u0131 potada ekonomik bak\u0131mdan analiz edersek, ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fi belli olmayan, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme riski olan bir sava\u015f\u0131 finansal olarak kald\u0131rma olanaklar\u0131 yok. ABD ve AB ekonomilerinin berbat oldu\u011fu zaten biliniyor. Lakin bug\u00fcn IMF Ba\u015fekonomisti Blanchard\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru okumakta fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>Blanchard, 2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flayan finansal krizin ne zaman bitece\u011fine dair \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klarken, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin aya\u011fa kalkmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcnde en az 10 y\u0131l oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Bu veri d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde bir sava\u015f ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterse de, bug\u00fcn\u00fcn do\u011fru zaman olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmek gerekir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1263482463\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Gerek Amerikan se\u00e7imleri, gerekse de AB\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki acil kriz noktalar\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131na kap\u0131 a\u00e7acak bir vuru\u015fma i\u00e7in \u2018bug\u00fcn de\u011fil\u2019 yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Peki asker olarak sahaya s\u00fcr\u00fclmek isteyenle, Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclenin durumu ne?<\/p>\n<p>Suriye bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapt\u0131. Kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ile ilgili sayg\u0131 duyduklar\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi. Daha \u00f6nceki s\u00f6ylemlerini de dikkate al\u0131rsan\u0131z, b\u00f6yle bir sava\u015f\u0131n Suriye taraf\u0131ndan ba\u015flat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Gelelim bize\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Davuto\u011flu ne kadar bu i\u015fin merakl\u0131s\u0131 da olsa, AKP\u2019nin i\u00e7 kamuoyunu g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etme \u015fans\u0131 yok. Ve kendi se\u00e7meni de dahil, bu i\u015fe \u2018hay\u0131r\u2019 diyor\u2026 Bu nedenle bug\u00fcn b\u00f6yle bir \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131k halini ya\u015fanmas\u0131 zor\u2026 Peki bu top mermisi buna yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131? O zaman akl\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 i\u015fletelim. S\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n i\u00e7inden mi d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan m\u0131 at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bile \u00e7ok belli olmayan bu top mermisi, her ne kadar vatanda\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n kayb\u0131na neden olmas\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00fcz\u00fcc\u00fc de olsa, sava\u015f u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden daha a\u011f\u0131r bir durum mudur? Hay\u0131r\u2026 \u00d6yleyse mant\u0131k y\u00fcr\u00fcterek bir iki ba\u011f\u0131r\u0131p, \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rma d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bu i\u015fin sava\u015fa neden olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek g\u00fc\u00e7.<\/p>\n<p>O zaman t\u00fcm bu nokta analizlerin tamam\u0131nda geriye tek bir mant\u0131kl\u0131 nokta kal\u0131yor. \u0130ktidar bu i\u015fi, ba\u015fka i\u015flerin vesilesi yapacakt\u0131r. Buna ister son zamlar\u0131n etkisinden ar\u0131nmak deyin, isterseniz de 20 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde ge\u00e7irilmesi gereken ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin gelece\u011fi ad\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131 olan yerel y\u00f6netim reformu\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4079726307\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130\u015fin \u00f6z\u00fc, benim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015feme g\u00f6re buradan sava\u015f \u00e7\u0131kmaz. Ekonomik ve siyasi tablo da buna imk\u00e2n vermiyor. Ama uyan\u0131k olmazsak, bu \u015fapkadan fark\u0131nda olmadan tav\u015fan diye fil \u00e7\u0131kacak. Bence biraz sakin olun ve bir ad\u0131m geri \u00e7ekilip, bu s\u0131rada ba\u015fka neler oluyor diye bak\u0131n.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ile Suriye aras\u0131nda ipler gerildi. D\u00fc\u015fen bir top mermisi, hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybeden vatanda\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z, yaralananlar, akabinde ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc toplant\u0131 ve \u2018nokta vuru\u015flar\u2019 ile misilleme yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131\u2026 Peki&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":14653,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20377","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20377"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20377\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}