{"id":20208,"date":"2012-09-30T21:48:07","date_gmt":"2012-09-30T19:48:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=20208"},"modified":"2012-09-30T22:08:26","modified_gmt":"2012-09-30T20:08:26","slug":"basarili-ekonomi-nin-gercek-yuzu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/basarili-ekonomi-nin-gercek-yuzu\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 Ekonomi&#8217; nin Ger\u00e7ek y\u00fcz\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan hafta sonu kongrede partililerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck tevecc\u00fch\u00fc i\u00e7inde bir konu\u015fma yapt\u0131\u2026 \u0130ki bu\u00e7uk saati bulan bu konu\u015fma i\u00e7erisinde 10 y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6zetini yapmay\u0131 da ihmal etmedi. Elbette hitab\u0131n i\u00e7indeki pek \u00e7ok unsuru analiz etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn\u2026 Fakat ben ekonomi ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na mercek tutmak istiyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1473569728\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle \u2018ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 ekonomi\u2019 \u0131srar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7medi. Ama baz\u0131 detaylar\u0131 verirken durumu \u00e7arp\u0131tt\u0131. Mesela T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 10 y\u0131l \u00f6nceki ve mevcut ihracat rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131, ama ithalata de\u011finmedi. Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 gelirden bahsetti, ama ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 borcu es ge\u00e7ti. \u00c7ok otomotiv satmakla \u00f6v\u00fcnd\u00fc, ama bu otomobillerin \u00e7o\u011funun ithal edildi\u011fini belirtmedi.<\/p>\n<p>Bire bir hepsine verilecek bir cevap var. Fakat bunu yapmak yerine yine devlete ait baz\u0131 rakamlarla \u2018ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 ekonomi\u2019nin ger\u00e7ek y\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fc payla\u015fal\u0131m. Zira Maliye Bakan\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek olan bir iktidar\u0131n ekonomiye bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 da malum. Mesela \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in ekonomisinin durumuna bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7ok y\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fcld\u00fcren bili\u015fim sekt\u00f6r\u00fc de\u011fildi. Y\u00fczde 36 geliriyle Cumhuriyet Alt\u0131n\u0131\u2019yd\u0131\u2026\u00a0 Sadece bu veri bile ekonomiye bak\u0131\u015f\u0131 net bir bi\u00e7imde sergiliyor. \u2018Piyasalar\u2019 alg\u0131s\u0131ndan sermaye ve finans piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 alg\u0131layan, not verenlere sitem edip, 32 milyar dolara mal olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen bir zihniyet\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Peki ger\u00e7ek ekonomi ne durumda? Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n de\u011finmediklerini biz payla\u015fal\u0131m. Hazine verilerine g\u00f6re 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda kamu i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f toplam bor\u00e7 stoku 85,8 milyar TL, AKP iktidar\u0131 al\u0131rken kriz sonras\u0131 etkiyle 252,7 milyar TL, 2012 ilk \u00e7eyrek itibariyle de 548,3 milyar TL\u2026<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6nen \u00e7ek say\u0131s\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re bir misli artarken, senet say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n da patlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Rifat Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu Merkez Bankas\u0131 kay\u0131tlar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00e7ekle ilgili 220 bin dosya oldu\u011funa ve gerekli d\u00fczenleme yap\u0131lmazsa hapishanelerde yer bulunamayaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Protestolu senet miktar\u0131 ise yine Merkez Bankas\u0131 kay\u0131tlar\u0131na g\u00f6re 675 bin adede \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Sizce bu sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir piyasa g\u00f6stergesi mi?<\/p>\n<p>OECD raporlar\u0131na d\u00f6nelim bir de\u2026 Ba\u015fbakan refah d\u00fczeyi artan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den bahsetti de\u011fil mi? Oysa ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar g\u00f6steriyor ki, T\u00fcrk Halk\u0131\u2019n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli \u00fc\u00e7 harcama kalemini g\u0131da, bar\u0131nma ve giyim olu\u015fturuyor. Ek not verelim AC Nielsen\u2019in raporuna g\u00f6re de bu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn kredi kart\u0131 harcamalar\u0131ndaki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 80\u2019lere vuruyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yine OECD verisine d\u00f6nersek \u00fc\u00e7 kalem harcaman\u0131n i\u00e7indeki g\u0131dan\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 29 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Peki bunu nas\u0131l yorumlayaca\u011f\u0131z. Yorumunu piyasan\u0131n i\u00e7inden bir isim, \u0130stanbul G\u0131da Toptanc\u0131 T\u00fcccarlar\u0131 Derne\u011fi, yani Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6v\u00fcnerek i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fi Rami\u2019nin Eski Genel Sekreteri B\u00fclent Baykal yap\u0131yor. \u2018Bu oran gelirin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir.\u201d<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1704039042\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Peki OECD raporuna g\u00f6re refah d\u00fczeyi ne? O bu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnden sonraki harcamalarda ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Haberle\u015fme, \u0131s\u0131nma, ula\u015f\u0131m, sa\u011fl\u0131k, ayd\u0131nlanma, temizlik, spor, e\u011fitim, k\u00fclt\u00fcr, ev e\u015fyas\u0131, \u00e7evre, su ve tatil\u2026 Bunlar zor elde ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Kan\u0131t m\u0131? T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 sonu itibar\u0131yla ortaya koydu\u011fu, Gelir ve Ya\u015fam Ko\u015fullar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re, kurumsal olmayan n\u00fcfus i\u00e7inde 62,6 milyon ki\u015fi tatil yapam\u0131yor. Dikkatinizi \u00e7ekerim refah denilen ayn\u0131 zamanda s\u00fcrekli zam yedi\u011fimiz ba\u015fl\u0131klar. \u0130ktidar\u0131n bizim refah\u0131m\u0131zda g\u00f6z\u00fc m\u00fc var acaba?<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fin latifesi bir yana, \u00fc\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde yumurtan\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 12 kuru\u015ftan 24 kuru\u015fa geldi\u011fi bir \u00fclkede ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Ba\u015fbakan diyor ya \u2018ekonomi iyi\u2019 diye, o zaman sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcte\u015febbislerden yapal\u0131m:<\/p>\n<p>2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda esnaf say\u0131s\u0131 808 bin 89, \u015fimdi ise 710 bin 365. Yani basit usule tabi esnaf ve sanatk\u00e2r\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 97 bin 724 azal\u0131yor. D\u00f6nelim t\u00fcccara, yani gelir vergisi m\u00fckelleflerine\u2026 2002 senesinde 1 milyon 761 bin 777, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda 1 milyon 754 bin 972\u2026 \u00dczerine bir de n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 koyun ve \u00f6yle yorumlay\u0131n.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3660712759\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hadi diyelim ki bunlar i\u015flerini bilememi\u015fler. D\u00f6nelim \u015firketlere: 2002 senesinde \u00fclkede 2 milyon 874 bin 927 \u015firket var. Geliyoruz muhte\u015fem ba\u015far\u0131la imza at\u0131lan 10 y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda 2012 senesine; say\u0131, 2 milyon 339 bin 26\u2026 Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde 535 bin 901 \u015firket kapanm\u0131\u015f. Kaynak m\u0131? Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na ba\u011fl\u0131 Gelir \u0130daresi Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n internet sitesi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Farz edelim ki, bunlar da ihracat\u0131 becerememi\u015f\u2026 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracatta lokomotif say\u0131lan firmalar\u0131na d\u00f6nelim. Orada da kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u0130stanbul Sanayi Odas\u0131 verileri \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00dclke \u00fcretiminden ihracat\u0131na s\u00f6z sahibi olan ilk 500 \u015firket ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda zarar bildiren say\u0131s\u0131 66 adet. 2011 senesinde rakam 120 sanayi kurulu\u015funa y\u00fckseliyor. Zarar bildiren say\u0131s\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 81.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci 500\u2019de zarar bildirenler, yani a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 KOB\u0130\u2019nin orta b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte olan\u0131 ne durumda? 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 58 sanayi kurulu\u015fu, 2011 senesinde 120 sanayi kurulu\u015fu\u2026 Zarar bildiren say\u0131s\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 126\u2026 Toplamda \u00fclkenin ilk 1000 sanayi kurulu\u015funun 245 tanesi zarar ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 verilerine d\u00f6nelim. Yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;deki yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve al\u0131nan d\u0131\u015f krediler gibi uluslararas\u0131 y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin d\u0131\u015f varl\u0131klarla kar\u015f\u0131lanamayan k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden, uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m pozisyonu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2012 Temmuz itibar\u0131yla 377,3 milyar dolar seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Olduk\u00e7a ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n alt\u0131na batma noktas\u0131ndaki tar\u0131ma gizlenen i\u015fsizlik ger\u00e7e\u011fini, dolayl\u0131 vergilerle halk\u0131n hortumlanmas\u0131n\u0131, zam \u00fczerine gelen zamlar\u0131, kazan\u00e7 noktas\u0131nda azalan turizm gelirlerini, konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn de olumsuzlu\u011fuyla gerileyen ihracat\u0131, d\u00fc\u015fen sanayi \u00fcretimini, kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, alarm veren in\u015faat ve otomotiv sekt\u00f6rlerini koyun.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130thalata teslim edilen tar\u0131mda, bug\u00fcn artan motorin fiyatlar\u0131, \u00f6denemeyen krediler g\u00f6ze \u00e7arp\u0131yor. Rakamlara bak\u0131n. Besicilikte kullan\u0131lan 25 kg\u2019lik saman balyas\u0131 ge\u00e7en sene 3 TL idi, bu y\u0131l 10 \u2013 13 TL aras\u0131nda geziyor. K\u00f6yl\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00fct\u00fc ise sadece 70 kuru\u015ftan, 95 kuru\u015fa \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcnlerde konu\u015fulan tek \u015fey ise alt \u00fcst olan b\u00fct\u00e7e nedeniyle arka arkaya gelen ve gelecek zamlar\u2026 Daha kongrenin ak\u015fam\u0131na do\u011falgaz ve elektri\u011fe zam geldi. \u00dcstelik bu y\u00fck\u00fc T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re 44,7 milyon ki\u015fisi bor\u00e7 ve taksitle ya\u015fayan bir milletin s\u0131rt\u0131na day\u0131yorsunuz.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dcst\u00fcne bir de 12 milyonu a\u015fk\u0131n yata\u011fa a\u00e7 gireni koyun. Rakam azald\u0131k\u00e7a AKP\u2019liler de ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ne diyeyim Ba\u015fbakan \u0131srarla ekonominin \u2018ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131\u2019ndan bahsediyor. Oysa o \u2018ba\u015far\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek y\u00fcz\u00fc, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir alarm veriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Say\u0131n Ba\u015fbakan ve kurmaylar\u0131 taraftarlar\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu salondan \u00e7\u0131ks\u0131n da, vatanda\u015f\u0131n ger\u00e7ekleri y\u00fcz\u00fcne korkudan s\u00f6ylemekten \u00e7ekinmedi\u011fi bir T\u00fcrkiye yarats\u0131n. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0131srarla alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyorum, bu tabloda kurmaylar\u0131n\u0131n kendisine aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018ekonomide ba\u015far\u0131\u2019 bilgisi koca bir palavrad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan hafta sonu kongrede partililerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck tevecc\u00fch\u00fc i\u00e7inde bir konu\u015fma yapt\u0131\u2026 \u0130ki bu\u00e7uk saati bulan bu konu\u015fma i\u00e7erisinde 10 y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6zetini yapmay\u0131 da ihmal&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":14653,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20208","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20208"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20208\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}