{"id":2017,"date":"2011-06-27T09:30:43","date_gmt":"2011-06-27T06:30:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2017"},"modified":"2011-06-27T11:19:03","modified_gmt":"2011-06-27T08:19:03","slug":"yurtdisinda-varlik-fiyatlari-dusecek-altin-da","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yurtdisinda-varlik-fiyatlari-dusecek-altin-da\/","title":{"rendered":"Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda Varl\u0131k Fiyatlar\u0131 D\u00fc\u015fecek, Alt\u0131n da&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (IEA) \u2018bayram de\u011fil, seyran de\u011fil\u2019 stratejik stoklar\u0131ndan 60 milyon varili kullan\u0131ma sunaca\u011f\u0131 haberi petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Emtia cephesindeki as\u0131l ilgin\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerden biri alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>Varl\u0131k<\/strong><\/span><\/a> piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n geneline yay\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015f hareketinden alt\u0131n da etkilendi! Hani alt\u0131n g\u00fcvenli limand\u0131? 1.500 dolardan kapanan alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131, hafta i\u00e7inde 1.440-1.474 seviyelerinden birine kadar gerileyebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2936273660\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) II. Bedava\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>Para<\/strong><\/span><\/a> Paketi\u2019nin (BPP) sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131rken, ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke piyasalar\u0131nda karars\u0131zl\u0131k daha do\u011frusu \u201cFed olmay\u0131nca nas\u0131l ayakta dururuz\u201d endi\u015fesi piyasalara sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 getiriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Bernanke\u2019nin faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmedikleri FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan sonra yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc koruyacaklar\u0131n\u0131 (vadesi dolan hazine ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n yenileriyle de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor!) ancak III. BPP\u2019nin olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 korkuttu. Korku da\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>sat\u0131\u015f<\/strong><\/span><\/a> getirdi. Zira piyasa kazan\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na at\u0131lacak yeni odun olmay\u0131nca di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle piyasalar\u0131 daha yukar\u0131 g\u00f6t\u00fcrecek yeni likidite gelmeyince \u201ck\u00e2r realizasyonu\u201d ister istemez hayata ge\u00e7iyor. Zira herkes piyasalar yukar\u0131 gidecek diye \u201cbo\u011faz\u0131na kadar mala\u201d girince kim gelecek de onlar\u0131 bu mallardan kurtaracak? Fed mi yoksa Yunanistan problemiyle u\u011fra\u015fan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) m\u0131 yoksa ba\u015fkan\u0131 tacizle su\u00e7lan\u0131nca yeni ba\u015fkan se\u00e7me tela\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f IMF mi?<\/p>\n<p>IMF ve ECB\u2019yi bir kenara b\u0131rakal\u0131m. Zira Fed \u00f6nayak olmad\u0131k\u00e7a onlar piyasalar i\u00e7in bir \u015fey yap(a)mazlar! Fed ad\u0131m atacak m\u0131? Korkar\u0131m o\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>da<\/strong><\/span><\/a> hay\u0131r. Neden derseniz&#8230; I.BPP i\u015fe yaramay\u0131nca II.BPP\u2019nin gelmesinin nedeni ABD\u2019nin \u201cdeflasyon riski\u201d ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olmas\u0131yd\u0131. I.BPP\u2019ye ra\u011fmen fiyatlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyordu, \u00f6zellikle de konut fiyatlar\u0131. Bu tehlikeyi bertaraf etmek i\u00e7in II.BPP devreye al\u0131nd\u0131! \u015eimdilik de deflasyon tehlikesi azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Fed; her ne kadar ben piyasalar\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u00fcyor kolluyor- olaca\u011f\u0131m dese de; III.BPP\u2019ye s\u0131cak bakm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu mesaj\u0131 \u201cnet olarak\u201d alan, daha do\u011frusu Bernanke\u2019nin a\u011fz\u0131ndan duyan piyasalar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>karar<\/strong><\/span><\/a> verdiler. ABD borsalar\u0131na daha do\u011frusu hisse ve emtia piyasalar\u0131na ciddi sat\u0131\u015flar geldi!<\/p>\n<p>ABD hisse senetlerinin \u201charbi\u201d endeksi S&amp;P 500\u2019de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz 2 haftan\u0131n Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnlerinde 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya (HO) kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler oldu. Hisse senetleri bu seviyelerden d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Ancak endekslerin, haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinden kapanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 bu hafta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f hareketinin devam edece\u011fi fikrini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu hafta; ortalama 1.261 seviyesinden ge\u00e7en S&amp;P 500\u2019\u00fcn 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO\u2019n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, 1.250\u2019deki psikolojik destekte\u011fi de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ge\u00e7erek 1.235 seviyesine kadar gerilemesini bekliyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Bu fikri g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren bir ba\u015fka ipucu da emtia piyasalar\u0131ndan geliyor. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (IEA) \u2018bayram de\u011fil, seyran de\u011fil\u2019 stratejik stoklar\u0131ndan 60 milyon varili kullan\u0131ma sunaca\u011f\u0131 haberi petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu karar\u0131 alk\u0131\u015flayan ve \u201cdestekleyen\u201d ABD de bu miktar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 serbest b\u0131rakarak bu \u00e7abay\u0131 destekledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz aylarda Obama, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u015fikayet etmi\u015fti! Zamanlama ilgin\u00e7 oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Fed\u2019in likiditesi ile piyasalar\u0131\u201cbesleyemeyece\u011fini\u201d farkeden ABD y\u00f6netimi, petrol \u00fczerinden piyasalara m\u00fcdahale etmeye karar verdi anla\u015f\u0131lan. Ucuz petrol ile piyasalara bir kez daha \u201ccan suyu\u201d verilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lacak. Karar sonras\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 5\u2019lere yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ger\u00e7i onlar m\u00fcdahale etmeseydi de d\u00fc\u015fecekti, sadece biraz daha uzun zamanda. IEA ve \u201ci\u015fbirlik\u00e7ileri\u201d bunu h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131lar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-719308764\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hem karar, hem de piyasadaki olumsuz hava nedeniyle ABD hampetrol\u00fc (WTI) ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftay\u0131 91.16 varil\/dolar fiyat\u0131yla; hem 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO, hem de \u015eubat 2009\u2019dan bu yana gelen ve teknik analiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a sa\u011flam olan y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin alt\u0131nda kapatt\u0131. G\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc 83 dolara dikmi\u015f durumda. Bizim i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli olan Brent fiyatlar\u0131nda da WTI kadar olmasa da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131, ancak 102 dolardan ge\u00e7en 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na inilmedi. Bu hafta inilecek olur ise 92.50 dolar\u0131n yolu a\u00e7\u0131lacak ki bu durum bizim cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in iyi bir haber olarak alg\u0131lanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Emtia cephesindeki as\u0131l ilgin\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerden biri alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f idi. Varl\u0131k piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n geneline yay\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015f hareketinden alt\u0131n da etkilendi! (Hani alt\u0131n g\u00fcvenli limand\u0131?)<\/p>\n<p>Gelen sat\u0131\u015flarla, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1.520\u2019den ge\u00e7en 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir kapan\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti! Bu hafta i\u00e7inde 1.440-1.474 seviyelerinden birine kadar devam edecek sat\u0131\u015flarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>1996 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana alt\u0131nda ya\u015fananlara yani daha b\u00fcy\u00fck resme bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaysa alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda (g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fteki daha da dikkat \u00e7ekici) kayda de\u011fer bir gerileme olmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. Zira haftal\u0131k grafi\u011fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fiyatlar\u0131n daha yukar\u0131 gitmesi i\u00e7in zamanda geri gidilmesi gerekiyor ki bu mal\u00fbmunuz \u201c\u015fimdilik\u201d imk\u00e2ns\u0131z! Kayda de\u011fer d\u00fczeltmeden kast\u0131m ise 1.235 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na kadar geri \u00e7ekilmeden s\u00f6z ediyorum. \u015eimdilik buna zaman var!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3187119625\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Unutmadan k\u0131sa k\u0131sa&#8230;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Euro\/dolar paritesinde 1.41\u2019in alt\u0131na inilmesi ve 1.3940 seviyelerinin test edilmesi ihtimali y\u00fcksek!<\/p>\n<p>Pariteye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak dolar\/TL\u2019de 1.6450-1.6570 band\u0131na kadar bir y\u00fckseli\u015f olmas\u0131 ihtimali var. Sonras\u0131nda bask\u0131 azalacakt\u0131r!<\/p>\n<p>\u0130MKB\u2019de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201chormonlu talebin\u201d azalmas\u0131 ve yukar\u0131da bahsetti\u011fim varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemeyle birlikte \u201cnormale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d ya\u015fanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ali A\u011eAO\u011eLU<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (IEA) \u2018bayram de\u011fil, seyran de\u011fil\u2019 stratejik stoklar\u0131ndan 60 milyon varili kullan\u0131ma sunaca\u011f\u0131 haberi petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Emtia cephesindeki as\u0131l ilgin\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerden biri&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2017","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2017","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2017"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2017\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2017"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2017"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2017"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}