{"id":20158,"date":"2012-09-28T08:12:55","date_gmt":"2012-09-28T06:12:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=20158"},"modified":"2012-09-28T08:13:32","modified_gmt":"2012-09-28T06:13:32","slug":"iki-tez-iki-test","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/iki-tez-iki-test\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ki Tez, \u0130ki Test"},"content":{"rendered":"

Biz “zor zamanda iktisat politikas\u0131” falan diye tak\u0131l\u0131rken tart\u0131\u015fma t\u0131rman\u0131verdi. Ekonomi yorumcular\u0131na h\u00fck\u00fcmet \u00fcyeleri de kat\u0131ld\u0131.\u00a0 Ekonomiden sorumlu eski bir bakan da topa girdi. Bir\u00a0 gaz-fren meselesinin i\u00e7ine yuvarland\u0131k.
\nSorunun bir boyutu b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015fl\u0131yor olmas\u0131yla ilgili. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme say\u0131lar\u0131 beklenenden k\u00f6t\u00fc geldi. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi hen\u00fcz bilmiyoruz ama i\u015faretler \u00e7ok i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Sanki y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan k\u0131sm\u0131nda ekonomi daha da yava\u015flayacakm\u0131\u015f gibi bir beklenti olu\u015ftu. Bunun \u00fczerine resmi ve gayri resmi gaza basma istekleri yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131.
\nBiz b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131rken b\u00fct\u00e7e ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. B\u00fct\u00e7ede hedeflenenin epeyce \u00f6tesinde bir a\u00e7\u0131k olu\u015ftu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Son y\u0131llarda en b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyakas\u0131 “mali disiplin” olan ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin can\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n denetim alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7in frene bas\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.
\nAsl\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ile b\u00fct\u00e7ede bozulma olmas\u0131 birbirinden pek ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z de\u011fil. Ekonomi yava\u015flay\u0131nca gelir olu\u015fumu da yava\u015fl\u0131yor.\u00a0 Gelir art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131\u00a0 yerli ve yabanc\u0131 mal-hizmet talebinin de yava\u015flamas\u0131na neden oluyor. Bu arada b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131nda etkili olan beklenti bozulmas\u0131 da harcamalar\u0131n azalmas\u0131na katk\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7ta harcamalardan elde edilen dolayl\u0131 vergi geliri de azal\u0131yor. Bizim gibi vergi yap\u0131s\u0131 fazlas\u0131yla dolayl\u0131 vergilere\u00a0 yaslanan ekonomilerde bu t\u00fcr vergi azalmas\u0131\u00a0 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck boyutlu oluyor. Sonu\u00e7ta b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.
\nYani sorun birken (b\u00fcy\u00fcme)\u00a0 iki oluyor (b\u00fcy\u00fcme art\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e). Yava\u015flayan ekonomin yan\u0131na bir de kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonomi geliyor.<\/p>

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