{"id":19861,"date":"2012-09-20T15:36:53","date_gmt":"2012-09-20T13:36:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=19861"},"modified":"2012-09-20T15:37:01","modified_gmt":"2012-09-20T13:37:01","slug":"2012-buyume-hedefi-yuzde-4-u-asabilecek-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2012-buyume-hedefi-yuzde-4-u-asabilecek-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"2012 B\u00fcy\u00fcme Hedefi Y\u00fczde 4&#8242; \u00fc A\u015fabilecek mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Sorunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 vermeden \u00f6nce, bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ait ikinci d\u00f6nem beklenti anketine bir g\u00f6z atal\u0131m. Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 ikinci d\u00f6nem beklenti anketinde, y\u0131l sonu y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE beklentisi y\u00fczde 6,80&#8217;e y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n birinci d\u00f6nem anketinde beklenti, y\u00fczde 6,76 d\u00fczeyindeydi. B\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi ise,\u00a0 2012 y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,6&#8217;dan y\u00fczde 3,4&#8217;e gerilemi\u015f durumda. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 4,6&#8217;dan y\u00fczde 4,5&#8217;e gerilemi\u015f. Esas ilgimi \u00e7eken konu ise, Dolar \/ TL d\u00f6viz kuru.\u00a0 Dolar\/TL kuru beklentileri, Eyl\u00fcl 2012 sonu beklentisi 1,8004&#8217;e, 2012 y\u0131l sonu\u00a0 i\u00e7in 1,8070&#8217;e gerilerken, gelecek 12 ay sonu i\u00e7in beklenti 1,8256&#8217;ya y\u00fckselmi\u015f.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2554430086\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2012 y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in cari a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisi,\u00a0\u00a0 62,83 milyar dolardan 62,24 milyar dolar seviyesine, gelecek y\u0131l sonu y\u0131ll\u0131k cari i\u015flemler dengesi beklentisi ise 65,9 milyar dolardan 64,3 milyar dolara gerilemi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 performans\u0131 , Avrupa \u00fclkelerine g\u00f6re g\u00f6receli iyi olmakla birlikte, R\u00f6nesans k\u0131tas\u0131nda devam eden kronik bor\u00e7 krizinin derinle\u015fmesi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde ki aylarda, ihracat \u2013 ithalat dengesini negatif y\u00f6nde etkileyecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 hafta i\u00e7inde, politika faizinde \u00fcst band\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmeye devam ediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131nda\u00a0 biraz yava\u015flama ba\u015flad\u0131. Kapasite Kullan\u0131m Oran\u0131 beklentilerin alt\u0131nda geliyor.\u00a0\u00a0 B\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinde ki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de bunu g\u00f6steriyor. Avrupa ve Amerika kaynakl\u0131 krizin 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda derinle\u015fmesi, \u015f\u00fcphesiz, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkileyebilir. Ne zaman ki, Avrupa ve Amerika Merkez Bankalar\u0131, piyasalar\u0131 fonlamak ad\u0131na tahvil sat\u0131n almaya ba\u015flarsa, s\u0131cak paran\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye girmesi olumlu bir geli\u015fme olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak, tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131 ile g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtarmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan Avrupa Ekonomisi, son \u00e7eyrekde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat pazar\u0131n\u0131 derinden etkilemeye devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Muhtemelen, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 % 4 seviyelerine yak\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatacak olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, k\u00fcresel ekonomide ki\u00a0 artan riskler, 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 beklentilerimizi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Dr. \u0130smet DEM\u0130RKOL<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sorunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 vermeden \u00f6nce, bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ait ikinci d\u00f6nem beklenti anketine bir g\u00f6z atal\u0131m. Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 ikinci d\u00f6nem beklenti&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":934,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19861","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19861"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19861\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/934"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19861"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19861"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19861"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}