{"id":19750,"date":"2012-09-18T09:48:19","date_gmt":"2012-09-18T07:48:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=19750"},"modified":"2012-09-18T09:48:27","modified_gmt":"2012-09-18T07:48:27","slug":"2013-yilinda-disarinin-kotulesmemesine-duaciyiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2013-yilinda-disarinin-kotulesmemesine-duaciyiz\/","title":{"rendered":"2013 Y\u0131l\u0131nda D\u0131\u015far\u0131n\u0131n K\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmemesine Duac\u0131y\u0131z"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yurti\u00e7i ekonomi politikas\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir destek beklenmeli. Uluslararas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmemesine duac\u0131y\u0131z<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3674750841\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyre\u011finde potansiyelimizin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na % 9 dolaylar\u0131nda bir kat\u0131l\u0131k olarak yans\u0131d\u0131 bu olgu. D\u00fcn %8,9 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan haziran d\u00f6nemi (mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 bu ataleti bir kez daha kan\u0131tlad\u0131. Bu yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6nemine kar\u015f\u0131 bir ekonomi politikas\u0131 tepkisi verilebilir mi?<\/p>\n<p>Son veriler, Say\u0131n Maliye Bakan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son deme\u00e7leri ve bas\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kan konuyla ilgili haberler maliye politikas\u0131nda bir gev\u015femenin (salt ekonomik gerek\u00e7elerle bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda) m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durumda y\u00fcz\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc para politikas\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fcrebiliriz. \u00d6nce para politikas\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u00fcredir daha gev\u015fek oldu\u011funu vurgulamak gerekiyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MB) bankalara bor\u00e7 verdi\u011fi paran\u0131n bankalara ortalama maliyeti (as\u0131l politika faizi) ilk yedi ayda ortalama % 8,6 d\u00fczeyindeydi. A\u011fustos ay\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ise ortalama fonlama maliyeti % 6,6\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u00d6nemli bir azalma. Kald\u0131 ki son bir haftad\u0131r % 6,2 d\u00fczeyinde ortalama faiz.<\/p>\n<p>Elbette akla hemen \u015fu soru gelebilir: \u201cPolitika faizinin oynayabilece\u011fi aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz koridoru belirliyor. Koridorun \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 ise % 11,5. Bu durumda, politika faizi her an % 11,5\u2019e ya da biraz alt\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu bankalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir belirsizlik. \u00d6yleyse bankalar, kredi maliyetlerini bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da dikkate alarak y\u00fcksek tutarlar m\u0131?\u201d Hakl\u0131 bir soru. Bankalar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00f6yle davrand\u0131klar\u0131na dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 var. Ancak hem enflasyonun son \u00e7eyrekte d\u00fc\u015fecek olmas\u0131 hem artan sermaye giri\u015fleri hem de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi, politika faizinde ani bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Yine de MB\u2019nin koridorun \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 ya da koridoru oldu\u011fu gibi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmesi, bankalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u00f6z konusu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 iyice d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek ve kredi ile mevduat faizlerinde bir miktar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flayabilecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ek olarak, MB\u2019nin zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek bankalar\u0131n elinde daha \u00e7ok krediye \u00e7evrilebilir kaynak b\u0131rakmas\u0131 da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Ancak MB\u2019nin bu t\u00fcr bir politikan\u0131n etkinli\u011fini, zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n ve d\u00f6viz olarak tutulmas\u0131na izin vererek azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate almak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.radikal.com.tr\/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalYazar&amp;ArticleID=1100731&amp;Yazar=FATIH-OZATAY&amp;CategoryID=101\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><strong>TIKLAYINIZ.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yurti\u00e7i ekonomi politikas\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir destek beklenmeli. Uluslararas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmemesine duac\u0131y\u0131z Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyre\u011finde potansiyelimizin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na %&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19750","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19750"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19750\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}