{"id":19650,"date":"2012-09-14T14:25:03","date_gmt":"2012-09-14T12:25:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=19650"},"modified":"2012-09-14T14:25:12","modified_gmt":"2012-09-14T12:25:12","slug":"draghi-nin-tahvil-alimi-dolar-ve-altinin-degerini-yukseltebilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/draghi-nin-tahvil-alimi-dolar-ve-altinin-degerini-yukseltebilir\/","title":{"rendered":"Draghi&#8217; nin Tahvil Al\u0131m\u0131, Dolar ve Alt\u0131n\u0131n De\u011ferini Y\u00fckseltebilir"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta i\u00e7inde hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z, Avrupa ve Amerika Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n, mevcut k\u00fcresel durgunluk ve i\u015fsizlikle m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in, parasal geni\u015fleme sinyalini hayata ge\u00e7ireceklerinden bahsetmi\u015ftik. Ard\u0131ndan, ilk \u00f6nce Draghi; daha sonra, Bernanke bir kez daha, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rarak tahvil al\u0131m programlar\u0131n\u0131 ilan ettiler. \u015eimdi esas soru \u015fu , bu tahvil al\u0131m\u0131 ne kadar s\u00fcre devam edecek ve ne derece\u00a0 faydal\u0131 olacak ?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1020457412\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130lk \u00f6nce ABD\u2019den ba\u015flayal\u0131m. Amerikan ekonomisi , 2007 Mortgage krizi ile birlikte, benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir ekonomik buhrana s\u00fcr\u00fcklenerek, trilyon dolarca zarar ve istihdam kayb\u0131 ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ve halen de ya\u015famaya devam etmektedir. Ancak, parasal geni\u015fleme tek ba\u015f\u0131na sihirli de\u011fnek de\u011fildir. Merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmetin, ekonomi programlar\u0131 ile koordineli hareket etmesi durumunda ba\u015far\u0131 elde edilece\u011fini unutmamak gerekir. Ba\u015fkan Bernanke, d\u00fcn ki konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ortalar\u0131na kadar faizleri \u201c0\u201d baz puana yak\u0131n tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 ve istihdam piyasas\u0131 iyile\u015fene kadar ki bu oran bence % 5-6 aras\u0131 olarak hedefleniyor, tahvil al\u0131m\u0131na devam edece\u011fini belitti. Yani, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar kademeli olarak alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fini net bir \u015fekilde s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Ne zaman ki enflasyonist bask\u0131lar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak i\u015fte o zaman, bankalara ve piyasalara enjekte edilen likit para, FED taraf\u0131ndan geri al\u0131nmaya ba\u015flanacak ki \u015fu an bu beklentinin \u00e7ok \u00e7ok\u00a0 uza\u011f\u0131nday\u0131z . Tahminlerime g\u00f6re e\u011fer ki Avrupa da ki ekonomik ve siyasi geli\u015fmeler, R\u00f6nesans k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fimine katk\u0131 sa\u011flayamaz ise 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar ABD ekonomisinin y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yakalamas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa i\u00e7in ise, tahvil al\u0131m\u0131 bence g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtarmaktan \u00f6teye gidemiyor. Almanya Anayasas\u0131 \u015fartl\u0131 olarak tahvil al\u0131m\u0131na onay verdi. \u0130spanya ve Yunanistan , ekonomik tedbirleri uygulamada isteksiz davran\u0131yor. \u0130talya, Portekiz, \u0130ngilterenin de ekonomik durumu pek parlak de\u011fil. Fransa ise zorlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0 Draghi, istedi\u011fi kadar tahvil al\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirsin, Avrupa\u2019da ortak ses \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 durumunda,\u00a0 resesyon zilleri Avrupa i\u00e7in 2012 son \u00e7eyrekde\u00a0 \u00e7almaya ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r. Bir di\u011fer husus ise, tahvil al\u0131m program\u0131, Euro para biriminin de\u011ferini\u00a0 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde ki aylardan itibaren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7irmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Nedeni ise, Avrupa da ki ekonomi koordinasyonda ki yetersizlik ve tahvil al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mlara ve istihdama olumlu katk\u0131 yapamayaca\u011f\u0131 ku\u015fkusudur. Bu durumda, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak Dolar para birimi, Euronun yerini \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde ki y\u0131llarda almaya ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r. Alt\u0131n ise, her iki ko\u015fulda likidite bollu\u011fu ve k\u00fcresel endi\u015felerin artmas\u0131 neticesi ile g\u00fcvenli liman konumunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye devam edecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Dip not olarak belirtmek gerekirse; T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankas\u0131 say\u0131n Erdem\u00a0 Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, k\u00fcresel para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 neticesi ile, yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131n\u0131n ivme kazanmas\u0131 ad\u0131na, \u00a0faiz koridorunu \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde ki g\u00fcnlerde\u00a0 daha erken\u00a0\u00a0 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><strong>Dr. \u0130smet DEM\u0130RKOL<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta i\u00e7inde hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z, Avrupa ve Amerika Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n, mevcut k\u00fcresel durgunluk ve i\u015fsizlikle m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in, parasal geni\u015fleme sinyalini hayata ge\u00e7ireceklerinden bahsetmi\u015ftik. Ard\u0131ndan, ilk \u00f6nce Draghi;&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":934,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19650","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19650","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19650"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19650\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/934"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}