{"id":19552,"date":"2012-09-12T08:11:22","date_gmt":"2012-09-12T06:11:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=19552"},"modified":"2012-09-12T08:11:36","modified_gmt":"2012-09-12T06:11:36","slug":"dusuk-buyumeye-karsi-nasil-bir-ekonomi-politikasi-yaniti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dusuk-buyumeye-karsi-nasil-bir-ekonomi-politikasi-yaniti\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye Kar\u015f\u0131 Nas\u0131l Bir Ekonomi Politikas\u0131 Yan\u0131t\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finin son ay\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131na gelmek \u00fczereyiz. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 2.9 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc yeni \u00f6\u011frendik. Bu oran y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011findeki y\u00fczde 3.3&#8217;l\u00fck orandan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmemizin de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin ilk sinyallerin gelmesiyle politika alternatifleri tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Bunlar neler olabilir?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1438038800\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6nce ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ili\u015fkin dikkatimi \u00e7eken birka\u00e7 noktan\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izeyim. Birincisi, 2012&#8217;nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 3.1&#8217;lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131, y\u00fczde 4.5-5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olan potansiyelimizin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda. \u0130kincisi, \u00f6zel kesimin yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda ikinci \u00e7eyrekte azalma var; bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 7.9. Y\u00fcksek bir oran. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da ayn\u0131 olumsuz durum ge\u00e7erli: 2011&#8217;in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 3.5 oran\u0131nda daha az yat\u0131r\u0131m yapm\u0131\u015f \u00f6zel kesim. \u015ea\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil; bir s\u00fcredir i\u015fadamlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lan anketler ekonomiye duyulan g\u00fcvende erozyona i\u015farete ediyorlard\u0131. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00f6zel kesim t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 da bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla azald\u0131. \u00d6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda azalman\u0131n, yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131ndaki azalmadan daha seyrek g\u00f6zlendi\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmek gerekiyor. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ekonomimizin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmemesinin tek nedeni, ithalata k\u0131yasla ihracattaki \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015f. Net d\u0131\u015f talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 5.7 puan oldu; olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. Ancak, bu katk\u0131ya k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n ihracat ve ithalat\u0131n\u0131n etkisini hari\u00e7 tutarak bakmakta yarar var.<\/p>\n<p>Potansiyelimizin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kalan b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131m\u0131z beraberinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ekonomi politikas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 da getirdi. \u0130lk dile getirilen yine para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feme iste\u011fi oldu. Burada atlanan \u00f6nemli bir nokta var. Para politikas\u0131 temmuz ay\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana gev\u015fiyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n (MB) ger\u00e7ek politika faizi olan &#8216;bankalar\u0131 ortalama fonlama maliyeti&#8217; y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yedi ay\u0131nda ortalama y\u00fczde 8.6 oldu. Oysa a\u011fustos ay\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ortalama fonlama maliyeti y\u00fczde 6.7&#8217;ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131nda ise 6.3 dolaylar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 6.2 oldu.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131, MB zaten politika faizini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Burada elbette akla hemen \u015fu soru gelebilir: &#8220;Politika faizinin oynayabilece\u011fi aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz koridoru belirliyor. Koridorun \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 11.5. Bu durumda, politika faizi her an y\u00fczde 11.5&#8217;e ya da biraz alt\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu bankalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir belirsizlik. \u00d6yleyse bankalar kredi maliyetlerini bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da dikkate alarak y\u00fcksek tutarlar m\u0131?&#8221; Hakl\u0131 bir soru. Ancak, hem enflasyonun (son ay hari\u00e7) MB&#8217;nin istedi\u011fi do\u011frultuya yak\u0131n gitmesi hem de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi, politika faizinde ani bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dunya.com\/dusuk-buyumeye-karsi-nasil-bir-ekonomi-politikasi-yaniti-149530yy.htm\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><strong>TIKLAYINIZ.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finin son ay\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131na gelmek \u00fczereyiz. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 2.9 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc yeni \u00f6\u011frendik. Bu oran y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011findeki y\u00fczde 3.3&#8217;l\u00fck orandan&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19552","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19552"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19552\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}