{"id":19467,"date":"2012-09-11T08:22:35","date_gmt":"2012-09-11T06:22:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=19467"},"modified":"2012-09-11T08:22:48","modified_gmt":"2012-09-11T06:22:48","slug":"ekonomiyi-ihracatci-sirtladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ekonomiyi-ihracatci-sirtladi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomiyi \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131 S\u0131rtlad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmede d\u00fcnya rekorlar\u0131 geride kald\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ihracat sayesinde y\u00fczde 2,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Ekonomistler gelecekten umutsuz. Sanayici Merkez&#8217;den acil faiz indirimi bekliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1469846220\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Temmuz ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde ikinci \u00e7eyrekteki olas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ne olabilece\u011fi hakk\u0131nda epey ahk\u00e2m kesmi\u015ftim. 17 Temmuz\u2019daki \u015f\u00f6yle: \u201cBu olas\u0131l\u0131k bir tarafa b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2. \u00e7eyrekteki b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n ilkinden pek de farkl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, bir fark olu\u015fmu\u015fsa da bunun biraz daha y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00f6nde olaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.\u201d Ba\u015fka yaz\u0131larda da benzeri ifadeler var. Mesela 10 Temmuz: \u201cFarkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle, 2. \u00e7eyrek ilkinden pek farkl\u0131 de\u011fil. Olsa olsa biraz daha y\u00fcksek beklemek gerekiyor. Ama \u2018biraz daha y\u00fcksek\u2019, \u2018daha y\u00fcksek\u2019 de\u011fil, \u2018y\u00fcksek\u2019 hi\u00e7 de\u011fil.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>2. \u00e7eyre\u011fe ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fcn \u00f6\u011frendik: Bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla ekonomimiz y\u00fczde 2.9 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte ise y\u00fczde 3.3 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck (0.1 puanl\u0131k yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru g\u00fcncelleme yap\u0131ld\u0131). Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z ise y\u00fczde 3.1 oldu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, 2. \u00e7eyrekte ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla biraz daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck; daha \u00f6nce bu k\u00f6\u015fede yer alan \u201cilk \u00e7eyrek ile ikinci \u00e7eyrek aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pek bir fark olmayaca\u011f\u0131\u201d tahmini tuttu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, arada fark olacaksa, 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin biraz daha y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordum. Tersi oldu; 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi az da olsa daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Dikkatimi \u00e7eken birka\u00e7 noktan\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izeyim. Birincisi, 2012\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 3,1\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme, y\u00fczde 4,5-5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olan potansiyelimizin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda. \u0130kincisi, \u00f6zel kesimin yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda2. \u00e7eyrekte azalma var; bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 7,9. Y\u00fcksek bir oran. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da ayn\u0131 olumsuz durum ge\u00e7erli: 2011\u2019in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 3,5 daha az yat\u0131r\u0131m yapm\u0131\u015f \u00f6zel kesim. \u015ea\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil; bir s\u00fcredir i\u015fadamlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lan anketler ekonomiye duyulan g\u00fcvende erozyona i\u015farete ediyordu. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, y\u0131l\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00f6zel kesim t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 da azald\u0131. Ekonomimizin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmemesinin tek nedeni, ithalata k\u0131yasla ihracattaki \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015f. Net d\u0131\u015f talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 5.7 puan oldu; olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.radikal.com.tr\/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalYazar&amp;ArticleID=1099915&amp;Yazar=FATIH-OZATAY&amp;CategoryID=101\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><strong>TIKLAYINIZ.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmede d\u00fcnya rekorlar\u0131 geride kald\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ihracat sayesinde y\u00fczde 2,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Ekonomistler gelecekten umutsuz. Sanayici Merkez&#8217;den acil faiz indirimi bekliyor. Temmuz ay\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19467"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19467\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}