{"id":19386,"date":"2012-09-07T12:29:48","date_gmt":"2012-09-07T10:29:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=19386"},"modified":"2012-09-07T12:29:48","modified_gmt":"2012-09-07T10:29:48","slug":"fed-resesyon-gostergesini-bozdu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/fed-resesyon-gostergesini-bozdu\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed &#8220;Resesyon G\u00f6stergesini&#8221; Bozdu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Fed&#8217;in\u00a0faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmak \u00fczere uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 parasal geni\u015fleme programlar\u0131, 1970&#8217;den bu yana\u00a0ABD&#8217;dekiresesyonlar\u0131 do\u011fru \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olan tahvil piyasas\u0131g\u00f6stergelerinin yetene\u011fini kaybettirdi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1178240152\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>SLJ Macro Partners LLP&#8217;nin 29 A\u011fustos tarihli raporunda Stephen Jen ve Fatih Y\u0131lmaz,\u00a0Fed&#8217;in 2 tur parasal geni\u015flemesinin, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k hazine tahvilleri ile 3 ayl\u0131k tahvillerin getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 bozarak,\u00a0resesyon\u00a0riski \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini sa\u011fl\u0131ks\u0131z h\u00e2l\u00e2 getirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Getiri e\u011frisinin\u00a0Fed\u00a0politikalar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimlere ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyon ve ekonomiye ili\u015fkin beklentilerine geleneksel ve istikrarl\u0131 tepkileri, bu arac\u0131 iyi bir\u00a0resesyon\u00a0g\u00f6stergesi h\u00e2line getirmi\u015fti. \u00d6rne\u011fin, k\u0131sa vadeli val\u0131klar\u0131n getirisinin, uzun vadelilerin \u00fczerinde seyretmesiyle olu\u015fan ters e\u011fri,\u00a0faizlerin y\u00fckselece\u011fi ve enflasyonun yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini yans\u0131tmas\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc bir\u00a0resesyon\u00a0g\u00f6stergesi olarak alg\u0131lan\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak\u00a0Fed&#8217;in\u00a0faizleri s\u0131f\u0131ra yakla\u015ft\u0131ran a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 esnek para politikas\u0131 bu durumu de\u011fi\u015ftirerek,\u00a0faize\u011frisinin \u015feklini bozdu.<\/p>\n<p>SLJ&#8217;nin analistleri di\u011fer konjonkt\u00fcr g\u00f6stergelerinde de bozulmalar oldu\u011funu belirterek, bu g\u00f6stergelerin finansal sekt\u00f6rde artan etkileri ve bunun varl\u0131k \u00fczerindeki etkisi ile\u00a0ABD&#8217;nin hizmet, istihdam sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 alg\u0131layacak d\u00fczeyde geli\u015fmi\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n<p>SLJ bu sebeple mevcut tahvil piyasas\u0131 g\u00f6stergeleri yerine, resesyon ihtimalinin uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme ile artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011fal konjonkt\u00fcr yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nerdi.<\/p>\n<p>BloombergHT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed&#8217;in\u00a0faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmak \u00fczere uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 parasal geni\u015fleme programlar\u0131, 1970&#8217;den bu yana\u00a0ABD&#8217;dekiresesyonlar\u0131 do\u011fru \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olan tahvil piyasas\u0131g\u00f6stergelerinin yetene\u011fini kaybettirdi. SLJ Macro Partners LLP&#8217;nin 29 A\u011fustos tarihli&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5649,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19386"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19386\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5649"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}