{"id":19153,"date":"2012-08-31T16:26:05","date_gmt":"2012-08-31T14:26:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=19153"},"modified":"2012-09-01T09:22:26","modified_gmt":"2012-09-01T07:22:26","slug":"haydi-baslayalim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/haydi-baslayalim\/","title":{"rendered":"Haydi Ba\u015flayal\u0131m&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>K\u0131sa bir aradan sonra yeniden merhaba\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3549023990\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ohh \u00d6zavc\u0131 gez gez diyorsunuz amma ve lakin durum sand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z gibi de\u011fil\u2026<\/p>\n<p>O servis senin bu hastane benim..Kasko,trafik\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Yani \u00f6zetle yak\u0131n zamanda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm en serin su \u00e7e\u015fmeden akand\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u0130zmir \u00c7e\u015fme de\u011fil\u2026Bildi\u011finiz musluk suyu\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u015e\u00f6yle bir y\u00fcz\u00fcme vurup serinledim.Kar\u015f\u0131n\u0131zday\u0131m\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7ok s\u0131k\u0131 g\u00fcndemi bol ve yo\u011fun bir Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na haz\u0131r m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p>Haydi ba\u015flayal\u0131m\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3611565160\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn Jackson Hole toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve Ben amca\u2019dan inciler.\u2026<\/p>\n<p>6 Eyl\u00fcl yani Per\u015fembe Draghi(ECB faiz karar\u0131)..Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Abd Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Arada ac\u0131kanlar i\u00e7in aperatif pazartesi T\u00fcrkiye enflasyon ve Per\u015fembe Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak\u2026\u0130yi haber \u00e7aylar \u015firketten\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Dalgac\u0131 Figen \u00d6zavc\u0131 sadede gel\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1535321190\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bende herkesin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi Fed\u2019in tar\u0131md\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisini g\u00f6rmeden net bir mesaj verece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum.Son d\u00f6nemde \u00fcst\u00fc \u00fcste 2 ay berbat son ay s\u00fcrpriz yaparak iyi gelen i\u015fsizlik verisini g\u00f6rmeden Jackson hole toplant\u0131s\u0131nda sadece veriler k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015firse buraday\u0131z mesaj\u0131 vermesini bekliyorum.Nitekim para piyasalar\u0131 bizim tatil oldu\u011fumuz g\u00fcn dahil bu mesaj\u0131 fiyatlama derdinde\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Almanya Anayasa Mahkemesi\u2019n\u0131n ESM ile ilgili karar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmeden herhangi bir ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 beklenmiyor.Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonucunda belki bu standart d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlem s\u00f6ylemi i\u00e7erisinde \u0130spanya ve \u0130talya gibi bor\u00e7 sorunlu \u00fclke tahvili al\u0131m konusunda daha a\u00e7\u0131klayac\u0131 bilgilere sahip olunabilir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetle Fed\u2019in tavr\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdama,Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n tavr\u0131 Almanya\u2019ya ba\u011fl\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Para piyasalar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm genel izlenim art\u0131k insanlar\u0131n \u201caman yarabbim para geliyor\u201d k\u0131yafetinden s\u0131yr\u0131l\u0131p \u201cya tamam gelecekte verilere baksana abi bu para bu krize \u00e7are olabilecek mi?\u201dsorusuna yava\u015f yava\u015f d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Zaman zaman krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f pembeli\u011fine b\u00fcr\u00fcnse de art\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 siyah yar\u0131s\u0131 beyaz\u2026Bu nedenle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gidi\u015fler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fler i\u015ftahl\u0131 de\u011fil.Kat\u0131l\u0131m az\u2026<\/p>\n<p>S\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131k\u2026Y\u00f6n ya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ya da yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lacak\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Bu k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi kritik tarihler Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke\u2019nin yapaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ve tar\u0131md\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi ile olabilir\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Almanya(Dax) endeksine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda k\u0131sa vadede 7,000 seviyesi \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamazsa \u00f6nce 6700(50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama) 6500(200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama) seviyelerine d\u00fczeltme yapma iste\u011finde\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Zira S&amp;P i\u00e7inde ayn\u0131 durum s\u00f6z konusu\u20261400 destek seviyesi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1375 (50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama)1337(200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama) destek seviyelerine d\u00fczeltme ya\u015fanabilir..<\/p>\n<p>Paritede durum biraz farkl\u0131\u20261,2470 destek-1,26 diren\u00e7 band\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda\u2026Hareket etti\u011fi geni\u015f bant 1,2365(50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck H.O) 1,2852 (200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck H.O)<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim i\u00e7eri\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda(111 dolar seviyesi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa petrolde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sertle\u015febilir) ya\u015fanan geri \u00e7ekilme sonras\u0131 eli rahatlayan Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n son yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131 g\u00f6sterge faizde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 dolarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket izliyoruz.Kuvvetle muhtemel bu ay yap\u0131lacak toplant\u0131da 50-100 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz indirimi(koridorun 11,50 olan \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde \u00e7ekilmesi) g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p>Bu beklentiyle g\u00f6sterge faiz 7,60\u2019lara kadar geri \u00e7ekildi.Faizde 7,45 seviyesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131p k\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131 bence izlenmeli..<\/p>\n<p>Dolar kuru teknik olarak enteresan bir yerde.Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftalarda s\u0131k\u00e7a yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m takip edilmesi gereken hem 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hem 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerine atm\u0131\u015f durumdad\u0131r.Bu y\u00fckseli\u015fte takip edilmesi gereken 1,81TL seviyesidir.Bu seviye \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece dolarda yukar\u0131 gitme iste\u011fi artabilir.\u0130zlenmesi gereken diren\u00e7ler 1,8333 TL-1,8770 TL seviyeleridir.<\/p>\n<p>Alt\u0131n ise parasal geni\u015fleme beklentisi haricinde enflasyonist korkular ve g\u00fcvenli liman olma gibi pek \u00e7ok r\u00fczgar\u0131 arkas\u0131na alm\u0131\u015f durumda&#8230;Parasal geni\u015fleme ile ilgili beklentiler zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda borsalara sat\u0131\u015f gelirken alt\u0131nda \u00e7ok fazla geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6rmememizin temel sebebi budur.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130zlenmesi gereken destek seviyesi 1640 (200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck H.O)<\/p>\n<p>Son olarak \u0130MKB\u2026.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00fcn ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e eriyip giden hasta sevgilimi izliyorum\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Nerden ba\u015flasam\u2026Nas\u0131l anlatsam\u2026Ka\u00e7 ki\u015fiydik o zaman ka\u00e7 ki\u015fi kald\u0131 \u015fimdi?<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcn ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n giderek azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015flem hacminin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc borsam\u0131z\u0131 \u00fcz\u00fclerek izliyorum.Benim gibi bir \u00e7ok insan\u0131n g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yap\u0131lan iki kritik hata var ki\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Bir tanesi i\u015flem s\u0131ras\u0131 kapat\u0131lan tahtalar&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011feri \u0130MKB\u2019de son yap\u0131lan de\u011fi\u015fiklikler\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Baz\u0131 hatalar\u0131n telafisi zordur tamam fakat baz\u0131 at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilebilir\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015flem hacminin ben diyim 5 siz diyin 10 hissede yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130MKB\u2019de genelde yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n tercih etti\u011fi endeks hisselerinin y\u00fckseli\u015flere de\u011fil sadece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere e\u015flik etmesi, bu hisselerin talep g\u00f6rmemesi son yap\u0131lan de\u011fi\u015fiklerle \u0130MKB\u2019nin likit olma \u00f6zelli\u011fini kaybetmesinden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebilirim.Maalesef ki son d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fck portf\u00f6yler kolay nakite d\u00f6nebildi\u011fi(yani likit) hisseleri tercih etmektedirler.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi hal b\u00f6yleyken \u0130MKB i\u00e7in teknik yorumum 66,600-66,700 ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini k\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 seviye takip edilmeli.Bu seviye k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ancak 70,000 ler s\u00f6z konusu olabilir\u2026<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 65,600-65,200-63,700 izlenmesi gereken destek seviyeleri\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Piyasalarda Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 sepet havas\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u0130MKB i\u00e7in bu seviyeden sonra yukar\u0131 da gitse \u00f6nerim sepet yap\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r.Eyl\u00fcl kritik geli\u015fmelere gebe bu nedenle portf\u00f6ylerde temkinli duru\u015f sizi zarardan korur.Zaten y\u00fckseli\u015flerin birka\u00e7 hisse de yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 sonucu bu hisselerde bulunmay\u0131p \u00e7ok fazla kar edemeyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n birde d\u00fczeltmeye yakalanmas\u0131 moralleri bozabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn A\u011fustos endeks kontratlar\u0131nda vade sonu sert hareketler sonucu yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 bir hava g\u00f6rebiliriz.Vadenin kapanmas\u0131 ve Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na giri\u015fle hava netle\u015febilir.Her iki y\u00f6nde de hisse pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kademeli olarak nakit veya farkl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131na b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi taraftar\u0131y\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Son not:Ricam \u00fczerine \u201cyat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 neden \u0130MKB\u2019den ka\u00e7t\u0131?\u201d ad\u0131yla yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 bu hafta program\u0131nda ele alan \u0130smet Din\u00e7er G\u00f6k\u00e7en\u2019e tekrar te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u0131sa bir aradan sonra yeniden merhaba\u2026 Ohh \u00d6zavc\u0131 gez gez diyorsunuz amma ve lakin durum sand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z gibi de\u011fil\u2026 O servis senin bu hastane benim..Kasko,trafik\u2026 Yani&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14450,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19153"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19153\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}