{"id":1914,"date":"2011-06-23T09:49:30","date_gmt":"2011-06-23T06:49:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1914"},"modified":"2011-06-23T09:49:40","modified_gmt":"2011-06-23T06:49:40","slug":"bddknin-kararlarina-farkli-bir-bakis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/bddknin-kararlarina-farkli-bir-bakis\/","title":{"rendered":"BDDK&#8217;n\u0131n Kararlar\u0131na Farkl\u0131 Bir Bak\u0131\u015f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>BDDK&#8217;n\u0131n son ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlar\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemiyorum. Vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m, etkiyi artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir karar almam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4222677008\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bankac\u0131l\u0131k D\u00fczenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu\u2019nun (BDDK) son kararlar\u0131 \u00fczerine son \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u00e7ok say\u0131da haber ve yorum \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Al\u0131nan kararlar, ta\u015f\u0131t ve konut kredileri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan t\u00fcketici kredilerine ve kiralama i\u015flemlerine ili\u015fkin. Bu kararlarla birlikte s\u00f6z konusu kredilerin faiz oranlar\u0131nda bir miktar art\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131, bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da kredi talebinin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyerek (arzuland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi) kredi geni\u015flemesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bu iddialar\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ge\u00e7erli olduklar\u0131 ba\u015fka bir yaz\u0131 konusu.<br \/>\nDikkat ederseniz MB\u2019nin daha \u00f6nce ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlar ile BDDK\u2019n\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu kararlar\u0131n\u0131n temel ama\u00e7lar\u0131 ayn\u0131: Kararlar, kredi arz\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 biraz olsun yava\u015flatmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Benim zihnimin tak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 nokta ise farkl\u0131. Bug\u00fcn, as\u0131l olarak, BDDK kararlar\u0131n\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131 (MB) ile koordinasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ele almak istiyorum. A\u00e7ay\u0131m.<br \/>\nMB\u2019nin kararlar\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcne kadar etkili olmamas\u0131n\u0131n temel nedenini hat\u0131rlay\u0131n: Uygulanan enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde MB\u2019nin belirledi\u011fi politika faizinin bir anlam\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in MB, bankalar\u0131n kendisinden talep ettikleri k\u0131sa vadeli (haftal\u0131k) krediyi bankalara vermek zorundayd\u0131. Aksi halde, k\u0131sa vadeli para piyasas\u0131nda bankalar\u0131n arz ve talepleri sonucunda olu\u015fan faiz, politika faizinden \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sapabilirdi. Bu sapma s\u00fcreklilik kazan\u0131rsa da politika faizi anlam\u0131n\u0131 yitirirdi. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle, MB\u2019nin enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimini unutmas\u0131 gerekirdi. Ku\u015fkusuz enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131labilir. Ama MB bu rejimi uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorsa, piyasadaki faizin politika faizi civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi de a\u00e7\u0131k.<br \/>\nBu durumda MB\u2019nin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlar\u0131n havada kalmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in bankalar\u0131n ya kendiliklerinden MB\u2019den giderek artan miktarda k\u0131sa vadeli fon talep etmemeleri ya da BDDK\u2019n\u0131n kararlar\u0131 ile bu talebin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilmesi gerekiyordu. Bug\u00fcne kadar yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00e7ok say\u0131da yaz\u0131da bu i\u015fin neden kendili\u011finden olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlatt\u0131m: Birincisi, mevduat\u0131n vadesi \u00e7ok k\u0131sa; bankalar, MB\u2019nin el koydu\u011fu mevduat\u0131, MB\u2019den k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanarak telafi ediyorlar. \u0130kincisi, bankalar\u0131n telafiye gitmelerini engellemek i\u00e7in, MB\u2019ye bor\u00e7 almak \u00fczere bir sonraki geli\u015flerinde bor\u00e7lanma faizlerinin daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 riski bulunmal\u0131. Oysa bu durumda ya MB\u2019nin piyasadaki faizin politika faizinden \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sapmas\u0131na izin vermesi ya da politika faizini artt\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u0130lkinin sak\u0131ncas\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131da belirttim. \u0130kincisi ise bankalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk de\u011fil. \u0130ki nedenle: MB\u2019nin el koydu\u011fu mevduat\u0131n vadesi 50 g\u00fcn. Bu s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde en fazla iki para politikas\u0131 kurulu karar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar. MB faizi ne kadar artt\u0131rabilir ki? Kald\u0131 ki b\u00f6yle bir artt\u0131r\u0131m MB\u2019nin \u2018k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015flerini azaltmak politikas\u0131 ile ve y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda enflasyonun yolunda gitti\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcyle birlikte yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz indirimleri ile \u00e7eli\u015fir. Bu durumda top BDDK\u2019ya ge\u00e7iyordu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>K\u0131sa vadeye ceza <\/strong><br \/>\nMB\u2019nin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlar\u0131n bir anlam\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in BDDK\u2019n\u0131n almas\u0131 gereken en \u00f6nemli karar \u015fu: Bankalar\u0131n MB\u2019den k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131 cezaland\u0131rmak. Bu yap\u0131l\u0131rsa, MB\u2019nin zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rarak el koydu\u011fu mevduat\u0131 telafi etmek \u00fczere bankalar MB\u2019den k\u0131sa vadeli fon talebini artt\u0131ramayacaklar. Elbette g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanabilecekler MB\u2019den, ama bu bor\u00e7, \u015fu anda oldu\u011fu gibi garip d\u00fczeylere \u00e7\u0131kamayacak.<br \/>\nBu yap\u0131lmad\u0131. Dikkat ederseniz BDDK\u2019n\u0131n son ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlar\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu falan s\u00f6ylemiyorum. Kararlar\u0131n etkilerini de tart\u0131\u015fm\u0131yorum. Vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z kurumlar\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fini sorgulatmak pahas\u0131na, koordinasyon sa\u011flamak s\u00f6ylemi ile Finansal \u0130stikrar Komitesi kurulurken, komitede yer alan bir kurumun, yine komitede yer alan di\u011fer kurumun daha \u00f6nce ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlar\u0131n etkisini artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir karar almam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Ha, belki de tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar aralar\u0131nda ve b\u00f6yle bir karar\u0131n gerekli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcler. O zaman da MB\u2019nin kararlar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7maz, kararlar\u0131 alanlarca anla\u015f\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f demektir. O kadar\u0131n\u0131 bilemem.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fatih \u00d6ZATAY<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BDDK&#8217;n\u0131n son ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlar\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemiyorum. Vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m, etkiyi artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir karar almam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k D\u00fczenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu\u2019nun (BDDK) son kararlar\u0131 \u00fczerine son \u00fc\u00e7&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1914"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1914\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}