{"id":1903,"date":"2011-06-22T14:45:13","date_gmt":"2011-06-22T11:45:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1903"},"modified":"2011-06-22T16:18:40","modified_gmt":"2011-06-22T13:18:40","slug":"bir-ekonomi-fotografi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/bir-ekonomi-fotografi\/","title":{"rendered":"Bir Ekonomi Foto\u011fraf\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Israrla s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorum ve yaz\u0131yorum. \u0130steyen inans\u0131n, isteyen inanmas\u0131n ama ekonomik realite g\u00f6steriyor ki, se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecinde kullan\u0131lan \u2018ba\u015far\u0131\u2019 ifadesi koskoca bir palavrad\u0131r. Ortadaki tablonun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7mak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-422056000\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu konuklar ger\u00e7ekleri dile getirmeye ba\u015flay\u0131nca televizyonlardaki j\u00f6leli rekl\u00e2m ka\u00e7\u0131\u015flar\u0131na benzemez. Deveku\u015fu gibi topra\u011fa ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6m\u00fcp ya da konu\u015fulmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyip, sorunu ortadan kald\u0131ramazs\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Ekonominin bir dizi problemi var. \u00c7arp\u0131k yap\u0131 ve bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 bunun temelini olu\u015ftursa da, bug\u00fcnlerde iki mesele g\u00fcndeme geliyor: Bor\u00e7lar ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k\u2026<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de s\u0131cak paran\u0131n 120 milyar dolar seviyesinde gezdi\u011fi bir konjonkt\u00fcrde, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u0131lsonunda 80 milyar dolar\u0131 bulaca\u011f\u0131 tahminlerinin ortaya konuldu\u011fu bir ortamda, sistematik bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulmadan, pansuman tedavileriyle i\u015fin i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131kamazs\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tetikleyen en \u00f6nemli kalem, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re ithal odakl\u0131 ekonominin bor\u00e7 para bulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z s\u00fcrece s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Bu saatten sonra o para bulunur mu bilemem. Ama temin edilse bile hem maliyeti \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek olacak, hem de problemi bor\u00e7lanma yoluyla \u00f6telemekten ba\u015fka bir i\u015fe yaramayacak.<\/p>\n<p>Peki ihracat\u0131n lokomotifi reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ne? 100 milyar dolar. T\u00fcrkiye genelinde pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki rakam ise 394 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131yor. Peki ne anlamak gerekiyor? \u00c7ok basit bir \u00f6rnekleme yaparsak, herkes kabaca bir fikir sahibi olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>2001 krizinde bankac\u0131l\u0131k \u00fczerinden ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z krizi hat\u0131rlay\u0131n. Hepsinin \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131 bankac\u0131l\u0131k ve finans kesiminin 5-6 milyar dolarl\u0131k pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131. Bunun ekonomiye maliyeti de yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 milyar dolar oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ve bu g\u00fcnk\u00fc rakamlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131n. En basitinden reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn 100 milyar dolarl\u0131k pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131da, teminatl\u0131 krediler nedeniyle bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da etkiledi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn. Ya\u015fanma ihtimalinde olanlar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fczde canland\u0131\u011f\u0131na eminim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1599683683\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Gelelim vatanda\u015f\u0131n bor\u00e7lu yap\u0131s\u0131na. Ne deniliyordu? \u0130\u00e7te t\u00fcketimi canland\u0131rmak gerekiyor, bu ama\u00e7la t\u00fcketim kredilerinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 laz\u0131m. Bu anlay\u0131\u015fla krediler da\u011f\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131 ve bu bas\u0131n\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ve ekonomi y\u00f6netimi taraf\u0131ndan da desteklendi.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi manzara ne? Konut ve ta\u015f\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli insanlara bankalar\u0131n da\u011f\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 para 76,5 milyar TL. Burada taksitlerin \u00f6denmesinde aksakl\u0131klar \u00e7\u0131karsa eylem plan\u0131 belli. Birden fazla yere bor\u00e7lu olan bu kesimden paras\u0131n\u0131 kurtarmak i\u00e7in herkes icray\u0131 ilk ba\u015flatan olma yar\u0131\u015f\u0131na girecek. Ne dramatik de\u011fil mi?<\/p>\n<p>Konut ve ta\u015f\u0131t kredileri ise ayr\u0131ca patlamaya aday bir alan. Onlar\u0131 konu\u015fmaya dahi korkuyor insan. \u0130\u015fin \u00f6z\u00fc \u015fu: Sizlere gidin al\u0131\u015fveri\u015f yap\u0131n, krediniz bizden dediler. Al\u0131\u015fveri\u015f merkezlerini, ithal \u00fcr\u00fcn cenneti yap\u0131p Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131lar. \u015eimdi de \u2018niye harcad\u0131n\u2019 diyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Foto\u011fraf alarm veriyor, ama su\u00e7lular teker teker ortadan kayboluyorlar ve su\u00e7lu bulunuyor: Bor\u00e7lu\u2026 Belki de d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00fclkemize yapacaklar\u0131n\u0131n provas\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketici \u00fczerinde uyguluyorlar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1654284271\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Peki buna \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmal\u0131 m\u0131y\u0131z? Se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecinde herkese hakaret edip, sonra da \u2018ben herkesi affettip, hakk\u0131m\u0131 helal ediyorum\u2019 diyen bir ba\u015fbakan\u0131n\u0131z varsa, kimse de \u2018biz sana ne yapt\u0131k, hangi hakk\u0131n\u0131 helal ediyorsun\u2019 diye sormuyorsa tek bir \u015fey s\u00f6ylenebilir: \u0130yi uykular T\u00fcrkiye!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Israrla s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorum ve yaz\u0131yorum. \u0130steyen inans\u0131n, isteyen inanmas\u0131n ama ekonomik realite g\u00f6steriyor ki, se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecinde kullan\u0131lan \u2018ba\u015far\u0131\u2019 ifadesi koskoca bir palavrad\u0131r. Ortadaki tablonun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7mak&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":899,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1903","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1903"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1903\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/899"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1903"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1903"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1903"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}