{"id":18883,"date":"2012-08-24T07:16:18","date_gmt":"2012-08-24T05:16:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=18883"},"modified":"2012-08-24T07:16:40","modified_gmt":"2012-08-24T05:16:40","slug":"seans-oncesi-24-agustos-2012-0845","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/seans-oncesi-24-agustos-2012-0845\/","title":{"rendered":"Seans \u00d6ncesi &#8211; 24 A\u011fustos 2012 &#8211; 08:30"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131m\u0131z \u00fczerinde en \u00f6nemli etki FITCH&#8217;in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131ndan geldi. D\u00dcne damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran di\u011fer geli\u015fmeler ise FED \u00fcyesi Bullard&#8217;\u0131n &#8220;QE3 i\u00e7in pek de aceleye gerek yok&#8221; a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve Merkel ile Holland&#8217;\u0131n yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n euro&#8217;dan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p \u00e7\u0131kmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecek g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleriydi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2425574644\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6nce FITCH raporuna bakal\u0131m. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;Nin notunun yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyeye gelece\u011fine dair zay\u0131f bir sinyal ard\u0131 ama piyasa bunu temkinli kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131. Notumuzun BBB oldu\u011funu teyit eden FITCH baz\u0131 kriterleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Bunlar birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen, daha do\u011frusu birini yaparsan\u0131z di\u011ferinde ba\u015far\u0131 \u015fans\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcrden kriterler. FITCH not art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015fen enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k ama s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme istiyor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5 hedefi konulmu\u015f. Bunu k\u0131sa vadede yakalamak zor. \u00dcstelik de \u015fu an i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n &#8220;faiz indirin&#8221; mesajlar\u0131 ve bask\u0131lar\u0131 varken, biliyoruz ki cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi sa\u011flamak zor. Bu sene i\u00e7in FITCH y\u00fczde 2.8, gelecek sene i\u00e7in de y\u00fczde 4.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyor. Ama kan\u0131mca bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcmemiz en az y\u00fczde 3.4 civar\u0131nda olur diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. E\u011eer y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru ekonomi ivme kazan\u0131rsa ki, TCMB Eyl\u00fcl&#8217;de faiz indirimi sinyali verdi ve bu durum ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir, o zaman not art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha yak\u0131n olabiliriz. Asl\u0131nda derecelendirem kurulu\u015flar\u0131 notumuzu yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyeye getirmese de, uluslararas\u0131 piyasalar zaten di\u011fer \u00fclkeler ile faiz fark\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 (spread) indirerek zaten bize bu notu vermi\u015f durumdalar. S\u00fctten a\u011fz\u0131 yanan derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 yo\u011furdu \u00fcfleyerek yemeyi tercih ediyorlar. FITCH d\u0131\u015f finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 da olumsuz g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor. Bu durumda bize cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de y\u00fczde 4&#8217;\u00fcn \u00fczerine atmak gibi bir g\u00f6rev kal\u0131yor. Bu da kolay de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn FED \u00fcyesi Bullard&#8217;\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 piyasalar \u00fczerinde olumsuz etki yaratt\u0131. Fakat bunun yan\u0131nda di\u011fer bir \u00fcye Evans ise parasal geni\u015fleme olmal\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi. Piyasalar Bullard&#8217;\u0131n mesaj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fcler. BU mesajlar bug\u00fcn de gelmeye devam edebilir. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki FED tahmin etti\u011fim gibi EYl\u00fcl&#8217;de parasal geni\u015fleme yapmayacak. Bernanke bu kozu se\u00e7im sonras\u0131na b\u0131rakacak diye tahmin ediyorum ve bunu da yazlar\u0131mda \u015fu ana kadar vurgulad\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa&#8217;ya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise Yunanistan konusunda kafalar \u00e7ok kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. Alman Maliye bakan\u0131 Schaeuble a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde art\u0131k Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131 Euro&#8217;dan \u00e7\u0131karal\u0131m, bunlar iflah olmaz anlam\u0131na gelecek \u015feyler s\u00f6yledi. Fakat bu kolay de\u011fil. E\u011fer \u0130spanya ve \u0130talya&#8217;ya tahvil al\u0131m\u0131 garantisi verilmeden Yunanistan kendi ba\u015f\u0131na b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131rsa, her yer tarumar olur. Fakat tahvil al\u0131m\u0131 garantisi verildikten sonra Yuannistan Euro&#8217;dan \u00e7\u0131kacak olursa, tersine olumlu etkiler bile g\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Makro verilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise, AB ve \u00c7in\u2019den gelen A\u011fustos \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verilerinin \u00e7ok zay\u0131f a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 ve ABD\u2019de ilk i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n bir ayl\u0131k zirve yapmas\u0131 piyasalar \u00fczerinde olumsuz etki yaratan di\u011fer fakt\u00f6rlerdi.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, Bernanke&#8217;nin 31 A\u011fustos&#8217;da Jackson Hole&#8217;de yapaca\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da s\u00f6yleyecekleri \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r. Ben topyek\u00fcn bir QE3 yerine, dha dar kapsaml\u0131 bir plan ile gidilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Ama piyasalar\u0131 tatmin eder mi bilemiyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Bu sabah Asya&#8217;da sert sat\u0131\u015flar var. Japonya ve \u00c7in ekside bulunuyor. DOw vadelileri ise y\u00fczde 0.09 yukar\u0131da hareket ediyor. G\u00fcne k\u00f6t\u00fc ba\u015flay\u0131p iyi bitirebiliriz. Borsam\u0131z i\u00e7in ilk \u00f6nemli destek 65.500 seviyelerinde bulunuyor. A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda hafif a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli ama 66 bin civar\u0131nda dalgalanma bekliyorum. Di\u011fer piyasalara g\u00f6re biz hala pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumday\u0131z. Hen\u00fcz teknik olarak ciddi bir mal \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali yok. a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ve yukar\u0131 500 puanl\u0131k marjda hareketler olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bug\u00fcn ba\u015fka yorum veremeyece\u011fim. Bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir g\u00fcn olmas\u0131n\u0131 diliyorum&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ekonomik Veriler G\u00fcndemi<\/strong><br \/>\n15:30\/ABD\/Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 T\u00fcketim Mallar\u0131 Sipari\u015fleri\/Temmuz\/Beklenti: + % 2.0\/\u00d6nceki: + % 1.6\/Revize + % 1.3<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1369434811\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>15:30\/ABD\/Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 T\u00fcketim Mallar\u0131 Sipari\u015fleri-Ula\u015f\u0131m Hari\u00e7\/Temmuz\/Beklenti: + % 0.5\/\u00d6nceki: &#8211; % 1.1\/Revize + % 1.4<\/p>\n<p>15:30\/ABD\/Sermaye Mallar\u0131 Sipari\u015fleri-Savunma Hari\u00e7 (ayl\u0131k)\/Temmuz\/\u00d6nceki: &#8211; % 1.4<\/p>\n<p>15:30\/ABD\/Sermaye Mallar\u0131 Sipari\u015fleri-Savunma Hari\u00e7 (y\u0131ll\u0131k)\/Temmuz\/\u00d6nceki: + % 1.2<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131m\u0131z \u00fczerinde en \u00f6nemli etki FITCH&#8217;in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131ndan geldi. D\u00dcne damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran di\u011fer geli\u015fmeler ise FED \u00fcyesi Bullard&#8217;\u0131n &#8220;QE3 i\u00e7in pek de aceleye gerek yok&#8221;&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":9297,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18883","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18883"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18883\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18883"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18883"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18883"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}