Lehman Brothers krizinden bu yana k\u00fcresel sistem B\u00fcy\u00fck Resesyon denilen krizin i\u00e7inde bulunuyor. Nedenleri ve geli\u015fimi hakk\u0131nda \u00e7ok, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yollar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda az say\u0131da yaz\u0131 yaz\u0131ld\u0131. Bu yaz\u0131da bunlara de\u011finmek yerine krizin gelece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bizi bekleyen \u00f6nemli k\u00fcresel tehlikeleri konu edece\u011fim.<\/div>\n

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ABD: Mali u\u00e7urum (fiscal cliff)<\/strong><\/div>\n
Mali u\u00e7urum deyimiyle kastedilen \u015fey, ABD\u2019de 2012 sonunda ve 2013 ba\u015f\u0131nda otomatik olarak y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girecek bir dizi mali kural\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilen olumsuz ekonomik etkiler. Bu kural de\u011fi\u015fikliklerini iki ba\u015fl\u0131kta toplayabiliriz: (1) Vergiler: Bush d\u00f6neminde y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe konulan vergi indirimleri e\u011fer Kongre taraf\u0131ndan bir yenileme yap\u0131lmazsa 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda ortadan kalkacak ve sistem eski vergi y\u00fcklerine geri d\u00f6necek. (2) Harcamalar: Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l kabul edilen partiler \u00fcst\u00fc yasa ile de 2013 y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda 1,2 trilyon dolarl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e kesintisi yap\u0131lacak.<\/div>\n
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Vergi indirimlerinin kalkmas\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n kesilmesi sonucu ekonomide canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n kaybolmas\u0131ndan ve sistemin yeniden resesyona girmesinden endi\u015fe ediliyor. ABD B\u00fct\u00e7e \u0130daresi (OMB) bu d\u00fczenlemelerin bu \u015fekilde y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesinin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fczde 0,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.<\/div>\n
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Kongre\u2019nin bu konuyu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcp \u00e7\u00f6zmeyece\u011fi konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 var. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l benzer bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma tavan\u0131 konusunda ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f ve Hazine\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma tavan\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 yani art\u0131k yeni bor\u00e7lanma yapamayacak a\u015famaya geldi\u011fi s\u0131rada Kongre sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu kez de benzer bir geli\u015fme ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrenler \u00e7o\u011funlukta bulunuyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bu sorununun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlenememesi ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in yeni resesyonun ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olabilir.<\/div>\n
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AB: Karars\u0131zl\u0131k sendromu<\/strong><\/div>\n
Avrupa\u2019da pe\u015f pe\u015fe bir\u00e7ok kriz ya\u015fand\u0131. Hi\u00e7birisi tam olarak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemedi. \u00d6rne\u011fin Yunanistan konusunda Avrupal\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretmek yerine sanki akademik bir konu tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yormu\u015f gibi yakla\u015f\u0131mda bulunmalar\u0131 tuhaf geliyor insana. Yunanistan konusunda karar alamayan Avrupal\u0131 liderler, ortak tahvil, bankalar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi, ek bir mali gev\u015feme yap\u0131l\u0131p yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131, maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n da para politikas\u0131 gibi ortak bir y\u00f6netime ba\u011flan\u0131p ba\u011flanmayaca\u011f\u0131 konular\u0131nda da karar alamad\u0131lar. \u015eu anda her \u015fey beklemede duruyor. Kimi lider mali gev\u015femeyi savunurken kimisi de mali s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 savunuyor.<\/div>\n
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Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Lehman Brothers krizinden bu yana k\u00fcresel sistem B\u00fcy\u00fck Resesyon denilen krizin i\u00e7inde bulunuyor. Nedenleri ve geli\u015fimi hakk\u0131nda \u00e7ok, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yollar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda az say\u0131da yaz\u0131 yaz\u0131ld\u0131.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":13098,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18702"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18702\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13098"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}