{"id":18612,"date":"2012-08-14T07:47:15","date_gmt":"2012-08-14T05:47:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=18612"},"modified":"2012-08-14T07:47:28","modified_gmt":"2012-08-14T05:47:28","slug":"hangi-pencereden-baksak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/hangi-pencereden-baksak\/","title":{"rendered":"Hangi Pencereden Baksak?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, yani d\u0131\u015f kaynak ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131zdaki azalmay\u0131 &#8216;iyile\u015fme&#8217; olarak nitelemek gerekir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1020877358\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Haziran ay\u0131na ait \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Beklendi\u011fi gibi cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki azalma s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Son on iki ay\u0131n cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 63.5 milyar dolar oldu. Bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla on milyar dolarl\u0131k bir azalmaya i\u015faret ediyor bu rakam. En dikkat \u00e7ekici geli\u015fme ise enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari dengede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Yirmi yedi ayd\u0131r enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k veriyorduk. Haziran ay\u0131nda bu sefer k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de olsa fazla verdik. B\u00f6ylelikle son on iki ay\u0131n enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 on iki milyar dolara d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na k\u0131yasa yakla\u015f\u0131k yirmi milyar dolarl\u0131k bir azalma anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00c7arklar yava\u015f d\u00f6n\u00fcyor\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nDikkat ederseniz cari dengeye ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmeleri anlat\u0131rken ya \u2018azalma\u2019 ya da \u2018d\u00fc\u015fme\u2019 s\u00f6zc\u00fcklerini kulland\u0131m. \u2018\u0130yile\u015fme\u2019 s\u00f6zc\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc tercih etmedim. \u2018\u0130yile\u015fme\u2019 diyerek niteliksel bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor ve sonu\u00e7ta bir yarg\u0131ya varm\u0131\u015f oluyorsunuz. Oysa cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u2018iyile\u015fme\u2019 olarak nitelendirilmesi hangi pencereden bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131za ba\u011fl\u0131. Gelin iki farkl\u0131 pencereden bakal\u0131m.<br \/>\nPencerelerden ilki, b\u00fcy\u00fcme penceresi. \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131zda ilk yar\u0131da art\u0131\u015f var. Ancak bu art\u0131\u015f, 2011\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fenin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda. Oysa ithalat\u0131m\u0131z y\u0131l\u0131n ilk alt\u0131 ay\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131n artmay\u0131, bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminden de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir d\u00fczeyde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ithalat\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in bu geli\u015fme \u00e7ok daha belirgin. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ithalat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n artmamas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. Bunun ne anlama geldi\u011fi san\u0131yorum a\u00e7\u0131k: Ekonomimizde \u00e7arklar yava\u015f d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,4 olarak kabul edelim (ilk \u00e7eyrek y\u00fczde 3,2 idi). Bu, potansiyelimizin alt\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131. Potansiyelimizin alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fimiz 2012\u2019de cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi alt s\u0131n\u0131r (milli gelire oran olarak) y\u00fczde 7-8 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olacak. Eskiden bu kadar y\u00fcksek bir cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 r\u00fcyam\u0131zda g\u00f6rsek hayra yormazd\u0131k. Bu pencereden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u2018iyile\u015fme\u2019 olarak nitelemek, ku\u015fkusuz, m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.radikal.com.tr\/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalYazar&amp;ArticleID=1097133&amp;Yazar=FATIH-OZATAY&amp;CategoryID=101\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, yani d\u0131\u015f kaynak ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131zdaki azalmay\u0131 &#8216;iyile\u015fme&#8217; olarak nitelemek gerekir. Haziran ay\u0131na ait \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Beklendi\u011fi gibi cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18612","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18612"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18612\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18612"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18612"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18612"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}