\u0130SO’nun “2012 y\u0131l\u0131 ilk yar\u0131 ekonomik durum tespit anketi” ve Naki Bak\u0131r’\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 ilk yar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fc ge\u00e7ti\u011fini, y\u0131l sonu OVP’nin y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131n\u0131n tutmas\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u0131\u015f konjont\u00fcrdeki d\u00fczelmenin\u00a0 getirece\u011fi ikinci yar\u0131 canlanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. Ancak bana g\u00f6re as\u0131l ortaya koydu\u011fu sonu\u00e7, son y\u0131llarda temel ayaklar\u0131 ithalat ve i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelinin art\u0131k s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir modele ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z oldu\u011fu.
\nArkada\u015f\u0131m\u0131z Naki\u00a0 Bak\u0131r, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda T\u00dc\u0130K, Merkez Bankas\u0131, Kalk\u0131nma bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve temel sekt\u00f6rlerin\u00a0 verilerine dayal\u0131 olarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rma haberinde y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda beklenenden daha sert bir ini\u015f oldu\u011fu sonucuna var\u0131yor. \u0130SO’nun “2012 y\u0131l\u0131 ilk yar\u0131 ekonomik durum tespit anketi ” sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da ilk yar\u0131 i\u00e7in benzer sonu\u00e7lar ortaya koyuyor. G\u00f6stergelerin 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan daha k\u00f6t\u00fc oldu\u011fu ankete kat\u0131lanlarca belirtiliyor. Ancak, \u0130SO anketine kat\u0131lanlar \u00f6zellikle geleneksel pazar\u0131m\u0131z Avrupa’da ekonomik iyile\u015fme beklediklerini, bunun sonucunda ikinci yar\u0131n\u0131n daha iyi ge\u00e7ece\u011fine inand\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yorlar. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak da y\u0131l sonu b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini Orta Vadeli programa uygun olarak y\u00fczde 4.1 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yorlar.<\/p>