{"id":18323,"date":"2012-08-06T08:32:13","date_gmt":"2012-08-06T06:32:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=18323"},"modified":"2012-08-06T08:32:13","modified_gmt":"2012-08-06T06:32:13","slug":"ispanya-ve-eurodolar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ispanya-ve-eurodolar\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130spanya ve Euro\/Dolar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz iki hafta piyasalarda Draghi\u2019nin r\u00fczgar\u0131 etkili oldu. Bize g\u00f6re piyasa beklentisini y\u00f6netme ad\u0131na piyasan\u0131n dinami\u011fini bozan a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla dolu bir hafta oldu. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi\u2019nin \u00f6nceki hafta per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cEuronun istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in her \u015fey yap\u0131lacak\u201d ifadesini kullanmas\u0131, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131na dair beklentileri y\u00fckseltmi\u015fti. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ay\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ECB\u2019nin bu ay da bir faiz indirimi yap\u0131labilece\u011fi, yeni bir uzun vadeli likidite ihalesi s\u00fcreci ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi ve en \u00f6nemlisi ECB\u2019nin ikincil piyasadan tahvil al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015flatabilece\u011fi beklentiler aras\u0131ndayd\u0131. Toplant\u0131 ard\u0131ndan ilk olarak faizlerde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 duyuruldu ve ard\u0131ndan ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi toplant\u0131ya ili\u015fkin notlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7, likidite ihalesinin ve tahvil al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu. Yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda s\u00fcrekli olarak ECB\u2019nin her \u015feyi yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n vurgulanmas\u0131 ve s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin de\u011ferlendirilmeye devam edildi\u011fine de\u011finmesi sadece hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltma ve gelecek haftalara y\u00f6nelik beklentileri y\u00f6netme denemesi olarak kald\u0131. Draghi\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda ESM ve EFSF\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda ise bu iki fonun bankac\u0131l\u0131k lisans\u0131 alamayaca\u011f\u0131 vurguland\u0131. \u0130sim verilemese de \u0130spanya ve \u0130talya\u2019ya \u00f6ncelikle bu fonlara ba\u015fvurulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi telkini yap\u0131ld\u0131. \u00d6zetle ECB\u2019nin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlara ve Draghi\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalara bakacak olursak, \u00f6nceki hafta per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Draghi\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f tam anlam\u0131yla fos \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bir gazetecinin madem yanl\u0131\u015f anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131n\u0131z neden bug\u00fcne kadar bu konuda bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmad\u0131n\u0131z sorusuna Draghi\u2019nin yap\u0131lan yorumlar ho\u015fuma gitti mealinde bir cevap vermesi, bizce Avrupa\u2019da manip\u00fclasyonun ECB eliyle yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir g\u00f6stergesi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n toplant\u0131da ECB\u2019nin yak\u0131nda s\u0131rad\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler uygulayabilece\u011fine dair yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yeni bir umut \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu. Piyasa bu \u00f6nlemlerin en oldu\u011funu bilmese de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta uygulanmaya ba\u015flayabilir beklentisi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir co\u015fku yaratm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4079805076\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>\u0130spanya yard\u0131ma muhta\u00e7 kalacak co\u015fkusu<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131dan net bir sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 ve ECB\u2019nin ve zorda olan \u00fclkelere adres olarak ESM ve EFSF\u2019yi g\u00f6stermesi, \u0130spanya\u2019dan gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n \u00f6nemini artt\u0131rd\u0131. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130spanya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin 7 ayl\u0131k icraat\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n kendi bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kendisinin finanse etmesi \u00e7ok zor ifadesini kulland\u0131. Bu \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n, inkar a\u015famas\u0131ndan kabul a\u015famas\u0131na ge\u00e7ti\u011finin de resmi beyan\u0131 oldu. Bundan sonraki safha t\u0131pk\u0131 Yunanistan\u2019da oldu\u011fu gibi \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n da yard\u0131m i\u00e7in gerekli mercilerin kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7almas\u0131 olacak. Burada ECB kap\u0131y\u0131 kapatt\u0131 ve ba\u015fta da de\u011findi\u011fimiz gibi ESM ve EFSF\u2019yi adres g\u00f6sterdi. Bizim korkumuz ESM ve EFSF\u2019nin bu maliyetin \u00fcstesinden kalkamama ihtimali. \u0130spanya i\u00e7in ortaya at\u0131lan rakamlar birbirinden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n sorunu k\u00f6kten \u00e7\u00f6zmek yerine nefes ald\u0131racak kadar ad\u0131m atma al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcnce \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n tek seferde d\u00fczl\u00fc\u011fe \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>ABD\u2019de istihdam da i\u015fsizlik de artt\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">ABD\u2019de temmuz ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 163 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Beklenti 100 bin civar\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 da %8,2\u2019den %8,3\u2019 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130stihdam artarken i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131yor olmas\u0131 bir \u00e7eli\u015fki gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de hesaplanma y\u00f6ntemlerinin farkl\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f vs. gibi etkenler bu durumu ortaya \u00e7\u0131karabiliyor. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdamda art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n ayn\u0131 anda i\u015fsizli\u011fin de artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 verilerin etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. \u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, piyasada hala parasal geni\u015fleme i\u00e7in bir umut kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Biz cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc veri sonras\u0131 gelen al\u0131mlarda istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 iyimserlik kadar, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle parasal geni\u015flemenin masada kalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n da etkisi oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>Bu haftaya dair<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Bu hafta bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede sanayi \u00fcretimi verileri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. \u0130zleyece\u011fimiz en \u00f6nemli veriler bunlar olacak. \u0130spanya yine ana g\u00fcndem olmaya aday. \u0130spanya\u2019da 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizler cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %7,40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerini test etti, yard\u0131m ba\u015fvurusu s\u00f6ylentileriyle %6,80\u2019li rakamlara kadar geriledi. Faizlerin bu hafta %7,50 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 yeniden panik havas\u0131 yaratabilir. %7 alt\u0131ndaki rakamlarda s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalacakt\u0131r. \u0130spanya ve \u0130talya faizleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bu hafta takip edece\u011fimiz en \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergelerden biri de Euro\/Dolar paritesi olacak. \u00a0Paritede 1,2350 ve hemen \u00fczerinde 50 g\u00fcl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n da yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 1,24 seviyesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7ler. Bu hafta bu seviyeler a\u015f\u0131labilecek olursa, piyasalarda olumlu y\u00f6nde \u00e7ok ciddi ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f demektir. Bu nedenle bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 yaln\u0131z parite i\u00e7in de\u011fil, hisse senetleri ve emtialar i\u00e7inde iyi bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 do\u011furabilir. Fakat ba\u015fta da de\u011findi\u011fimiz gibi bu b\u00f6lge \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7. Bu nedenle bu seviyelere yak\u0131n yerlerden Euro lehine pozisyon almak yerine 1,24\u2019\u00fcn a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemek daha do\u011fru olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN \/ Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc<\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong>MARBA\u015e Menkul De\u011ferler<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong><a href=\"mailto:uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr\">uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr<br \/>\n<\/a>Telefon: (0212) 286 30 00<\/strong><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4274184076\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz iki hafta piyasalarda Draghi\u2019nin r\u00fczgar\u0131 etkili oldu. Bize g\u00f6re piyasa beklentisini y\u00f6netme ad\u0131na piyasan\u0131n dinami\u011fini bozan a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla dolu bir hafta oldu. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18323","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18323"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18323\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18323"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18323"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18323"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}