{"id":17999,"date":"2012-07-26T08:27:50","date_gmt":"2012-07-26T06:27:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=17999"},"modified":"2012-07-26T08:28:05","modified_gmt":"2012-07-26T06:28:05","slug":"kuru-arttirmaktan-cikarilabilecek-dersler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kuru-arttirmaktan-cikarilabilecek-dersler\/","title":{"rendered":"Kuru Artt\u0131rmaktan \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131labilecek Dersler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>B\u00f6yle bir politika uygulan\u0131rken asla enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleyi ikinci plana itmemek ve itiliyormu\u015f alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yaratmamak gerekiyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-578089131\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Birka\u00e7 yaz\u0131d\u0131r enflasyonun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra liran\u0131n yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini de g\u00f6zeten bir para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde uygulanabilir oldu\u011funu tart\u0131\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorum. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB), 2010\u2019un sonlar\u0131ndan kabaca A\u011fustos 2011\u2019e kadar uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131, liraya yabanc\u0131 para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zamana yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7imde de\u011fer kaybettirme politikas\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan ileriye y\u00f6nelik \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131m derslerde s\u0131ra.<br \/>\n\u00d6nce temel ilkeyi hat\u0131rlatmakta yarar var: Bu t\u00fcr bir politikan\u0131n kendisinden beklenen yararlar\u0131 sa\u011flayabilmesi i\u00e7in enflasyonu belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseltmemesi gerekiyor. Nedir kendinden beklenen yararlar? Temel olarak, liran\u0131n belli s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde de\u011ferlenmesinin yaratabilece\u011fi finansal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131n \u00f6nlenmesi. Yan \u00fcr\u00fcn olarak ise (baz\u0131 iktisat\u00e7\u0131lara g\u00f6re bu bir yan \u00fcr\u00fcn de\u011fil, temel ama\u00e7) T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f pazarlardaki rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u015f\u0131nmamas\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar hat\u0131rlarda\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0130lk ders \u015fu: D\u00f6viz kurunun sizin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcz\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki nedenlerle artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak bir ortam varsa, bu t\u00fcr bir politikay\u0131 uygulamaya sokmamak gerekiyor. TCMB bu politikay\u0131 uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019daki durum \u015fu s\u0131radaki kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc de\u011fildi belki. Ama 2009\u2019un sonlar\u0131ndan itibaren \u00f6nce Yunanistan\u2019\u0131, sonra da Portekiz\u2019i ve \u0130rlanda\u2019y\u0131 tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 unutmamak gerekiyor. Onlar\u0131 \u0130spanya ve \u0130talya izledi. \u00dcstelik 2010 i\u00e7inde i\u015fe yaramayan bir dolu karar al\u0131nd\u0131. O zaman da Avrupal\u0131 liderler \u00e7ok say\u0131da toplant\u0131 yap\u0131p havanda su d\u00f6vd\u00fcler. K\u0131sacas\u0131 e\u011fer \u015fu s\u0131radaki kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc de\u011fildiyse de baya\u011f\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcyd\u00fc durum. Sonu\u00e7ta A\u011fustos 2011\u2019den itibaren risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde azald\u0131 ve lira kontrol\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer yitirdi. Enflasyondaki y\u00fckselmede bu geli\u015fmenin de \u00f6nemli bir rol\u00fc oldu.<br \/>\n\u0130kincisi, b\u00f6yle bir politika uygulan\u0131rken asla enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleyi ikinci plana itmemek ve itiliyormu\u015f alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yaratmamak gerekiyor. TCMB\u2019nin yeni politikas\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hakl\u0131 ya da haks\u0131z b\u00f6yle bir alg\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015ftu\u011funu san\u0131yorum \u00e7o\u011fu yorumcu kabul edecektir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ya\u015fayanlar\u0131n d\u00f6vizle ha\u015f\u0131r ne\u015fir olma al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n, 2001 krizinden k\u00fcresel krize kadar olan d\u00f6neme kadar belirgin bi\u00e7imde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Oysa kurdaki ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n ve hele bu s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n bir s\u00fcre devam etmeleri durumunda, bu al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131n tekrar hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. B\u00f6yle olunca da d\u00f6viz kurunun enflasyonu etkileme g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki azalmalar kal\u0131c\u0131 olam\u0131yor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc olarak, bu azalman\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olma emareleri g\u00f6sterip g\u00f6stermedi\u011fini de dikkate almak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.radikal.com.tr\/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalYazar&amp;ArticleID=1095269&amp;Yazar=FATIH-OZATAY&amp;CategoryID=101\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>B\u00f6yle bir politika uygulan\u0131rken asla enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleyi ikinci plana itmemek ve itiliyormu\u015f alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yaratmamak gerekiyor. Birka\u00e7 yaz\u0131d\u0131r enflasyonun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra liran\u0131n yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17999","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17999"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17999\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}