{"id":17833,"date":"2012-07-21T12:25:12","date_gmt":"2012-07-21T10:25:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=17833"},"modified":"2012-07-21T12:25:21","modified_gmt":"2012-07-21T10:25:21","slug":"taammuden","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/taammuden\/","title":{"rendered":"Taamm\u00fcden"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Enflasyon rejimi TL&#8217;nin yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini arzulanan d\u00fczeye yak\u0131n tutacak bi\u00e7imde d\u00fczenlenebilir mi?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-518187271\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) \u00e7e\u015fitli raporlar\u0131nda ve yetkililerinin sunumlar\u0131nda iki y\u0131la yak\u0131n bir s\u00fcredir kullan\u0131lan bir grafik var. Mesela 2011.III say\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon raporunun ikinci, 2012.II say\u0131l\u0131 raporunun ilk grafi\u011fi. Bu grafiklerde on geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 2010\u2019un kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan itibaren seyri ile liran\u0131n yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferinin (d\u00f6viz kurunun) seyri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. 2011.III say\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon raporunda bu grafi\u011fe at\u0131fta bulunularak \u015f\u00f6yle deniliyor: \u201cTCMB\u2019nin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikalar\u0131n bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011feri benzer grupta yer alan \u00fclkelerden arzu edilen do\u011frultuda ayr\u0131\u015fmaya devam etmi\u015ftir.\u201d<br \/>\n\u2018Arzu edilen do\u011frultuda ayr\u0131\u015fma\u2019 vurgusuna dikkatinizi \u00e7ekerim. Son yaz\u0131mda bu arzuyu \u2018liraya taamm\u00fcden de\u011fer kaybettirme\u2019 politikas\u0131 olarak adland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. TCMB\u2019nin bu arzusunun arkas\u0131ndaki temel neden bir s\u0131r de\u011fil. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n yo\u011fun bir bi\u00e7imde parasal geni\u015flemeye gitmeleri ve faizlerini \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeylerde tutmalar\u0131 sonucunda, T\u00fcrkiye ve TCMB\u2019nin grafi\u011finde kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkeler yo\u011fun k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015flerine maruz kald\u0131lar. TCMB, bu olgunun param\u0131zda olu\u015fturdu\u011fu de\u011ferlenme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rmak ve bu bask\u0131n\u0131n cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkisini azaltmak \u00fczere, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u2018liraya zamana yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7imde de\u011fer kaybettirme\u2019 politikas\u0131 uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu politika kabaca A\u011fustos 2011\u2019e kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Sonra Avrupa\u2019da ortal\u0131k kar\u0131\u015f\u0131nca bu politika terk edildi.<br \/>\nBu k\u00f6\u015feyi d\u00fczenli izleyen okuyucular\u0131m hat\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r; 2006\u2019dan 2007 ortalar\u0131na kadar \u00fczerinde tart\u0131\u015fmam\u0131z gereken bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini tekrarlay\u0131p durdum. Soru \u015fuydu: \u201cTCMB\u2019nin uygulamakta oldu\u011fu enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimini, param\u0131z\u0131n yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki (reel) de\u011ferini arzulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00fczeye yak\u0131n yerde tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak bi\u00e7imde yeniden d\u00fczenlemesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir mi?\u201d Yan\u0131t\u0131m \u201cEvet olabilir\u201d \u015feklindeydi. Ama bir ko\u015fulla: Enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fczde 4 etraf\u0131nda dalgalanaca\u011f\u0131ndan emin olunduktan sonra.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.radikal.com.tr\/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalYazar&amp;ArticleID=1094819&amp;Yazar=FATIH-OZATAY&amp;CategoryID=101\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Enflasyon rejimi TL&#8217;nin yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini arzulanan d\u00fczeye yak\u0131n tutacak bi\u00e7imde d\u00fczenlenebilir mi? Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) \u00e7e\u015fitli raporlar\u0131nda ve yetkililerinin sunumlar\u0131nda iki y\u0131la yak\u0131n&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17833"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17833\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}