{"id":17730,"date":"2012-07-18T09:14:45","date_gmt":"2012-07-18T07:14:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=17730"},"modified":"2012-07-18T13:14:57","modified_gmt":"2012-07-18T11:14:57","slug":"istihdam-kredi-hacmi-ve-buyume","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/istihdam-kredi-hacmi-ve-buyume\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130stihdam, Kredi Hacmi ve B\u00fcy\u00fcme"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin en g\u00fcncel veriler Nisan 2012 d\u00f6nemine ait. Buna g\u00f6re i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 9.0, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 49.6 ve istihdam oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 45.2 oldu. 2011’nin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde ise durum \u015f\u00f6yleydi: \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 9.9, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 49.9 ve istihdam oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 44.9. Mart d\u00f6neminde i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen 0.9 puanl\u0131k azalman\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131mdaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kaynakland\u0131. Bir k\u0131sm\u0131 da istihdam oran\u0131n artmas\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veriler ise, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 9.4 ile y\u00fczde 9 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kat\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyorlar. Nisan d\u00f6neminde i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 bu aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok az \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti: Y\u00fczde 9.03.
\nMevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f verilerin i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131ndaki temel dinami\u011fi (kriz d\u00f6nemleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda) yans\u0131tt\u0131klar\u0131 belirtilebilir. \u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin uzunca say\u0131labilecek bir s\u00fcre y\u00fczde 9.4 ile y\u00fczde 9 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 da, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ekonomideki belirgin yava\u015flaman\u0131n olumsuz bir sonucu olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Di\u011fer g\u00f6stergelerdeki geli\u015fmelerle birle\u015ftirildi\u011finde ise, en az\u0131ndan ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin ilk ay\u0131ndaki ekonomik faaliyet hacminin ilk \u00e7eyrektekinden farkl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. May\u0131s ay\u0131 i\u00e7in ise hem de\u011fi\u015fmeyen bir faaliyet d\u00fczeyine hem de bir miktar k\u0131p\u0131rdanmaya i\u015fret eden g\u00f6stergeler var.
\nBu ikinci t\u00fcr g\u00f6stergelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda kredi hacminde son haftalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen art\u0131\u015f geliyor. Haftal\u0131k kredi verileri nisan ay\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana kredi arz\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmekte oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 genellikle kredi geli\u015fmelerini on \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k ortalama kredi de\u011ferlerinin bir d\u00f6nem \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fim oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131rarak raporluyor. B\u00f6yle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen ‘d\u00f6nemlik’ kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nemli noktalar \u015f\u00f6yle: Mart 2012 ortalar\u0131ndan itibaren lira cinsinden kredi arz\u0131nda tekrar bir h\u0131zlanma belirleniyor. Birka\u00e7 rakam durumu daha a\u00e7\u0131k ortaya koyacak: 2011’in ilk yedi ay\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemsel de\u011fi\u015fimlerin ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 35.7. 2012’nin sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru yava\u015fl\u0131yor ve y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 18.8 oluyor. Bu de\u011fer 2012’nin ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 15.2’ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. \u0130kinci \u00fc\u00e7 ayda ise y\u00fczde 26.9’luk bir ortalama var. Haziran ay\u0131ndaki haftalarda ise kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 30’a y\u00fckseliyor. T\u00fcketici kredileri ve bireysel kart kullan\u0131m\u0131nda da benzer bir e\u011filim saptamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>

<\/ins>\r\n