{"id":176,"date":"2011-05-19T20:47:24","date_gmt":"2011-05-19T17:47:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=176"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:47:44","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:47:44","slug":"reel-faiz-ve-maliye-politikasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/reel-faiz-ve-maliye-politikasi\/","title":{"rendered":"Reel Faiz ve Maliye Politikas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Reel faizle ilgili analize ba\u015flad\u0131k ama bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc sonunu getiremedik. Araya d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k, Yunanistan ve istihdam gibi g\u00fcncel konular girdi. Daha fazla so\u011fumadan bitirmeye karar verdim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1761718412\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2001 krizi sonras\u0131nda reel faizlerin fevkalade y\u00fcksek seyretmesi benim de aralar\u0131nda oldu\u011fum bir kesim taraf\u0131ndan \u00e7ok ele\u015ftirildi. \u00d6zellikle TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131kla ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 vurguland\u0131. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n bilindi\u011fini varsay\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n<p>2008 krizi \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc tetikledi. Nominal ve reel TL faizler daha \u00f6nce tahayy\u00fcl bile edilemeyecek d\u00fczeylere geriledi. Bu kez d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi konusu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu arada Ba\u015fbakan da \u201cs\u0131f\u0131r reel faiz\u201d talebi ile tart\u0131\u015fmaya kat\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lk iki yaz\u0131da reel faiz, enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme ili\u015fkisine bakt\u0131m. Say\u0131lar ezberlere uymad\u0131. Y\u00fcksek faizle h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyonun m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131 ele al\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cUzun d\u00f6nemde hepimiz \u00f6lece\u011fiz\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Maliye politikas\u0131 konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn en kritik belirleyicilerinden biridir. Bir dizi \u00f6nemli ezberin de kayna\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi ile enflasyon ve faiz aras\u0131nda adeta otomatik bir ili\u015fki kurulur. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131nca enflasyon ve faizin de y\u00fckselece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Bu t\u00fcr g\u00f6zlemler uzun d\u00f6nemde do\u011frudur. Vergi yerine bor\u00e7la kar\u015f\u0131lanan kamu harcamalar\u0131 eninde sonunda kamu borcunu patlat\u0131r. Y\u00fcksek faiz \u00f6denemez hale gelince banknot matbaas\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Yunanistan\u2019a bakmak yeterlidir.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak, bu mekanizman\u0131n i\u015flemesi i\u00e7in y\u0131llar, hatta on y\u0131llar gerekebilir. Keynes\u2019in \u00fcnl\u00fc \u201cuzun d\u00f6nemde hepimiz \u00f6lece\u011fiz\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn gerisinde bu ger\u00e7ek vard\u0131r. K\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde s\u00fcre\u00e7 \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Bu ili\u015fki ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini kaybeder.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1447362419\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye uygulamak i\u00e7in 2003 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve reel faiz ili\u015fkisini kulland\u0131m. Neden 2003\u2019le ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Hazine\u2019nin reel faiz hesab\u0131 \u00f6ncesine gitmiyor. Sadece resmi verileri kullanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte \u00e7ubuklar (sa\u011f eksen) b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Grafi\u011fin daha rahat okunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u015faretini art\u0131 yapt\u0131m. Bor\u00e7lanma gere\u011fi \u015feklinde de okunabilir. \u00c7izgi ise piyasaya sat\u0131lan TL tahvillerinin reel faizidir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Maliye politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Grafik \u00e7ok \u00f6\u011freticidir. Yararl\u0131 g\u00f6zlemlere imk\u00e2n sa\u011fl\u0131yor. En \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 ile ba\u015flayal\u0131m. 2004 ve 2009\u2019da b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 ayn\u0131: y\u00fczde 5\u2019in biraz \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Halbuki reel faiz 2004\u2019te y\u00fczde 17 iken 2009\u2019da y\u00fczde 1.6\u2019ya iniyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1247976739\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Devam edelim. 2005-2008 aras\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda. Ama reel faiz ayn\u0131 oranda d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fcyor. Y\u00fczde 8-12 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tak\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan 2009 ve 2010\u2019da b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131rken reel faiz \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcyor. Tek tutarl\u0131 gibi duran g\u00f6zlem 2003\u2019t\u00fcr. Orada bile y\u00fczde 9 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n neden y\u00fczde 26 reel faize yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorusu cevaps\u0131zd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu arada b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerine kamu borcunu koyunca resmin de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyelim. Neticede, \u00f6zellikle 2004-2008 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fcksek reel faizi maliye politikas\u0131 ile a\u00e7\u0131klamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn durmuyor. B\u00f6ylece i\u015fin \u00f6z\u00fcne, yani para politikas\u0131na geliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Reel faizle ilgili analize ba\u015flad\u0131k ama bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc sonunu getiremedik. Araya d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k, Yunanistan ve istihdam gibi g\u00fcncel konular girdi. Daha fazla so\u011fumadan bitirmeye karar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/176","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=176"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/176\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=176"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=176"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=176"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}