Ge\u00e7en hafta yeni a\u00e7\u0131klanan gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) verilerini de\u011ferlendirmi\u015ftim. \u00c7e\u015fitli g\u00f6stergelerin daha \u00f6nceden ima ettikleri gibi, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u00e7 talep bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla sadece y\u00fczde 0.9 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131. Stok azalmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00f6nde etki yapt\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, net d\u0131\u015f talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fcksek oldu ve GSYH y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 3.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.
\nNet d\u0131\u015f talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken dikkatli olmak gerekiyor. \u00d6zellikle de ‘net d\u0131\u015f talebe dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u015flad\u0131k’ falan gibi \u00f6v\u00fcnmeye kalk\u0131\u015f\u0131rken. Zira ihracata dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmek ba\u015fka bir \u015fey, net d\u0131\u015f talebe dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u015fka bir \u015fey. Net d\u0131\u015f talebe dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme nedeniyle \u00f6v\u00fcnenler asl\u0131nda ihracata dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme nedeniyle \u00f6v\u00fcnmek istiyorlar. Ger\u00e7ekten de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin itici g\u00fcc\u00fc ihracat ise \u00f6v\u00fcnebilirler. Ancak net d\u0131\u015f talep, ihracat hi\u00e7 artm\u0131yorken, salt ithalat\u0131n azalmas\u0131 nedeniyle de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye pozitif katk\u0131 yapar. \u0130thalat\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni ise i\u00e7 talepteki azalma olabilir. San\u0131yorum bunun ihracata dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle bir ilgisi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k (Not: \u0130thalat GSYH’yi azalt\u0131c\u0131 bir kalem oldu\u011fundan, ithalattaki azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131na etkisi olumlu y\u00f6nde oluyor).
\nYanl\u0131\u015f anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n; ilk \u00e7eyrekteki b\u00fcy\u00fcmemizde ihracat rol oynamad\u0131 demiyorum. Aksine pozitif y\u00f6nde katk\u0131 yapt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmemize. Ama net d\u0131\u015f talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00fcksek katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir nedeninin de enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ithalat\u0131m\u0131zdaki belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011funun da unutulmamas\u0131 gerekiyor. A\u00e7\u0131k ki ithalattaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7 talebin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, yani daha az yat\u0131r\u0131m ve t\u00fcketim harcamas\u0131 yapmam\u0131z ile ilgili.<\/p>