{"id":17309,"date":"2012-07-04T09:02:11","date_gmt":"2012-07-04T07:02:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=17309"},"modified":"2012-07-04T09:02:21","modified_gmt":"2012-07-04T07:02:21","slug":"yeniden-dengelenmenin-karanlik-yuzu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yeniden-dengelenmenin-karanlik-yuzu\/","title":{"rendered":"Yeniden Dengelenme\u2019nin Karanl\u0131k Y\u00fcz\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>GSMH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi tahminleri a\u015ft\u0131, TL de\u011fer kazan\u0131yor, cari a\u00e7\u0131k daral\u0131yor, enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Sabahtan bu yana TV\u2019leri izliyorum, dalkavukluk yar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lsa, Guinness Rekorlar Kitab\u0131\u2019na girecek performanslar se\u00e7ilirdi bug\u00fcn ya! Ankara\u2019da bir Zafer Abi veriyor gaz\u0131, bir \u015eim\u015fek. Milletvekilleri s\u00f6z al\u0131p h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ekonomik ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6vmek i\u00e7in g\u00fcre\u015f tutuyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3612724697\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ne yani t\u00fcm bunlar yalan m\u0131?\u00a0 Ekonomi h\u0131zla yeniden dengelenmiyor mu? B\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nde gelen fonlar\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de pozisyon almak i\u00e7in s\u0131raya girmedi mi?\u00a0 Yo, hepsi do\u011fru da, bedelini kimse s\u00f6ylemiyor. \u015eu anda ya\u015fanan yeniden dengelenme kansere tedavi i\u00e7in verilen kemoterapi sonucu diyete benziyor. Hastan\u0131n kilo sorununu hallettik de, bu ay\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131 kesin de\u011fil.\u00a0 Yeniden dengelenmenin karanl\u0131k y\u00fcz\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcyememe.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Tam Zafer Abi kanal kanal dola\u015f\u0131p TANAP\u2019dan fazla gaz veriyordu seyirciye, TUIK\u2019den bir a\u00e7\u0131klama, takvim ve mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme yanl\u0131\u015f hesaplanm\u0131\u015f. Asl\u0131nda \u00e7eyrekten \u00e7eyre\u011fe %0.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme yokmu\u015f, %0.4 daralm\u0131\u015f\u0131z.\u00a0 H\u00fck\u00fcmet saflar\u0131ndan gelen \u201cgulp\u201d seslerini duyar gibi oluyorum.\u00a0 Ben de buzlu kokteylimden b\u00fcy\u00fck bir gulp yap\u0131yorum. Evet, enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorununu ge\u00e7ici olarak hallettik, ama art\u0131k B\u00fcy\u00fcme Mucizesi geride kald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Lehman Krizin\u2019den bu yana bir yandan gev\u015fetildik\u00e7e gev\u015fetilen para ve b\u00fct\u00e7e politikas\u0131, \u00a0\u00f6te yanda QE\u2019ler, \u00a0bankalar\u0131n kredi vermekte s\u0131n\u0131r tan\u0131maz iyimserli\u011fi ve t\u00fcketime a\u00e7 vatanda\u015f\u0131n \u201cnas\u0131l olsa \u00f6derim\u201d vurdumduymazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sayesinde Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n Kaplan\u0131 olduk. Tabii, b\u00fcy\u00fcme hi\u00e7bir model ve plana dayanmayan, \u00fcretimi ve verimlili\u011fi art\u0131rmayan hormonlu b\u00fcy\u00fcmeydi.\u00a0 2002 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana reel GSYIH %35 artarken, dolar baz\u0131nda GSYIH %100\u2019den fazla t\u0131rmand\u0131. Suni olarak de\u011ferlenen kur sayesinde t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyadan bor\u00e7 alm\u0131\u015f, \u00e7o\u011fu ihracata d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmeyecek yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla har vurup harman savurmu\u015ftuk. \u015eimdi bunlar\u0131 geri \u00f6demenin zaman\u0131 geldi, ama kasalar tam tak\u0131r kuru bak\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Gelecek y\u0131l \u00a0b\u00fcy\u00fcme liginde Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n S\u00fct D\u00f6km\u00fc\u015f Uyuz Kedisi olaca\u011f\u0131z. Son 2 \u00e7eyrektir \u00a0b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fcyoruz. Y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 %3.2\u2019ye yava\u015flarken, \u00e7eyrekten \u00e7eyre\u011fe de 2009\u2019un ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana ilk defa darald\u0131k.\u00a0 \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte daha iyi bir sonu\u00e7 elde etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc?\u00a0 Vallahi krediler hari\u00e7 i\u00e7 talepte toparlanmaya i\u015faret eden bir \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge g\u00f6remedim. T\u0130M kay\u0131tlar\u0131na g\u00f6re ihracat da bir hayli yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Haziran PMI yine 50\u2019nin \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ama \u00fcretim cephesi nerden baksan\u0131z kans\u0131z. RKGE ve KKO bu te\u015fhisin kan\u0131tlar\u0131. \u00a0Herhalde \u00e7eyrekten \u00e7eyre\u011fe daralmay\u0131z ama \u00f6yle kallavi bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme de beklemeyin.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/ekonomihaberyorum.haberdesin.com\/yeniden-dengelenmenin-karanlik-yuzu\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>GSMH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi tahminleri a\u015ft\u0131, TL de\u011fer kazan\u0131yor, cari a\u00e7\u0131k daral\u0131yor, enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Sabahtan bu yana TV\u2019leri izliyorum, dalkavukluk yar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lsa, Guinness Rekorlar Kitab\u0131\u2019na girecek performanslar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17309\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}