{"id":17296,"date":"2012-07-04T08:55:37","date_gmt":"2012-07-04T06:55:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=17296"},"modified":"2012-07-04T08:55:47","modified_gmt":"2012-07-04T06:55:47","slug":"buyume-ve-enflasyon-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyume-ve-enflasyon-3\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve Enflasyon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Beklendi\u011fi gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrd\u00fc. 2011&#8217;in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde, bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 11.9 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomimiz, sonraki her \u00e7eyrekte daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re ise 2012&#8217;nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 3.2 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck. B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye esas katk\u0131 net d\u0131\u015f talepten geldi. \u0130\u00e7 talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 bir puan\u0131n alt\u0131nda iken, net d\u0131\u015f talebin katk\u0131s\u0131 4.6 puan oldu. Stok birikimi ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00f6nde \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3393500416\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>GSYH verilerinden \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanan ve daha g\u00fcncel olan kredi, ithalat, ihracat, g\u00fcven endeksleri ve \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler gibi veriler i\u00e7 talebin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyorlard\u0131. Ger\u00e7ekten de GSYH y\u00fczde 3.2 oran\u0131nda artarken, i\u00e7 talepteki art\u0131\u015f sadece y\u00fczde 0.9 d\u00fczeyinde kald\u0131. Oysa ayn\u0131 oran bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 16.1 d\u00fczeyindeydi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede i\u00e7 talepte beklentilerimizle uyumlu olarak keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti (Grafik 1).<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7 talepteki bu geli\u015fme ithalat\u0131m\u0131za da yans\u0131d\u0131. \u00d6te yandan ihracat performans\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7 talepteki azal\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde telafi etti. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 13.2 oran\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. 1999 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana bundan daha y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. 2007&#8217;den bu yana ise sadece 2007 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f bu d\u00fczeyde. B\u00f6ylelikle mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131m\u0131z ile mal ve hizmet ithalat\u0131m\u0131z aras\u0131ndaki fark olarak tan\u0131mlanan net d\u0131\u015f talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 yukar\u0131da belirtti\u011fim gibi olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek oldu. Bu nedenle GSYH art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenenin \u00f6tesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti (Grafik 2).<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcne kadar yay\u0131nlanan veriler ikinci \u00e7eyrekteki ekonomik faaliyet d\u00fczeyinin ilk \u00e7eyrektekinden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 olmam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini ima ediyorlar. Bu veriler, olsa olsa ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin son ay\u0131nda, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk be\u015f ay\u0131ndaki yatay seyrin sona ermi\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyorlard\u0131. Bu durumda ikinci \u00e7eyrekteki b\u00fcy\u00fcme de en az birinci \u00e7eyrekteki kadar olacak. Avrupa nedeniyle k\u00fcresel finansal piyasalar kar\u0131\u015fmazsa zaten y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ekonominin toparlanma s\u00fcrecine girmesi bekleniyordu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n Orta Vadeli Program&#8217;daki y\u00fczde 4 tahminine yakla\u015fmas\u0131 hatta onu ge\u00e7mesi ihtimali art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.dunya.com\/buyume-ve-enflasyon-148862yy.htm\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Beklendi\u011fi gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrd\u00fc. 2011&#8217;in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde, bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17296","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17296"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17296\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17296"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17296"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17296"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}