{"id":1722,"date":"2011-06-20T01:36:48","date_gmt":"2011-06-19T22:36:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1722"},"modified":"2011-06-20T01:37:00","modified_gmt":"2011-06-19T22:37:00","slug":"ozel-tuketim-ve-secimler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ozel-tuketim-ve-secimler\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00d6zel T\u00fcketim ve Se\u00e7imler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Okuyucular\u0131ma mah\u00e7ubum. A\u00e7\u0131klanan verileri ve di\u011fer\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>g\u00fcncel<\/strong><\/span><\/a>geli\u015fmeleri bo\u015flad\u0131m. \u00d6nce uzun bir konjonkt\u00fcr analizine giri\u015ftim. Ard\u0131ndan se\u00e7imlere odakland\u0131m. Bir s\u00fcre daha ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fclerine s\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131yorum. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay telafi ederim.<br \/>\nAKP\u2019nin\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>se\u00e7im<\/strong><\/span><\/a> zaferine ekonominin\u00a0katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. Ge\u00e7en yaz\u0131da se\u00e7im kampanyalar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131k. CHP\u00a0pop\u00fclizme y\u00f6neldi. AKP istikrar\u0131 savundu. Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ortadaki se\u00e7menin istikrar\u0131 tercih etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<br \/>\nBug\u00fcn basit ama \u00f6nemli bir soruya cevap aramak istiyorum. Sekiz y\u0131ll\u0131k AKP iktidar\u0131 ekonomide ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r? Cevap bizi (maalesef) iktisad\u0131n bitmez t\u00fckenmez \u00f6l\u00e7me sorunlar\u0131na g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<br \/>\n\u0130ki taraf var. Ba\u015fbakan milli geliri dolar cinsinden \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyor. 3.2 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131k,\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>\u00e7ok<\/strong><\/span><\/a> ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131y\u0131z diyor. \u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar ise sabit TL fiyatlar\u0131 ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen milli gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 46 buluyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemlerin alt\u0131ndad\u0131r, h\u00fck\u00fcmet ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 de\u011fildir diyor. Kim hakl\u0131?<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2257176825\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Gene \u00f6l\u00e7me sorunu<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n hesab\u0131 kesinlikle do\u011frudur. Sevgili Ege Cansen her f\u0131rsatta hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. 2010 milli gelirinin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131ndan sonra ben de yazd\u0131m (7 Nisan). Ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 da ayn\u0131 sonucu veriyor.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6ylece kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za bir bilmece geliyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 de\u011filse, AKP\u2019nin oy oran\u0131 neden y\u00fckseldi? \u0130ki ihtimal\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>var<\/strong><\/span><\/a>. Bir: se\u00e7men yanl\u0131\u015f alg\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130ki: iktisat\u00e7\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyor. Cevab\u0131 ba\u015ftan verelim. \u0130kincisidir.<\/p>\n<p>Nasreddin Hoca hikayesine benzedi. \u00d6nce iktisat\u00e7\u0131, sonra se\u00e7men hakl\u0131 dedik. \u00d6l\u00e7me sorunlar\u0131na iyi \u00f6rnektir. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 y\u00f6ntem tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na yerim yok. Olay\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131saca anlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Milli gelir neyi \u00f6l\u00e7er? Refah d\u00fczeyini mi? Hay\u0131r, \u00fcretim hacmini \u00f6l\u00e7er. Uzun d\u00f6nemde ikisi ayn\u0131 \u015feydir. Ama k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde de\u011fildir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc vatanda\u015f i\u00e7in refah\u0131 \u00f6zel t\u00fcketimi ile \u00f6zde\u015ftir. Halbuki k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim \u00fcretimden\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>h\u0131zl\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/a> artabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bir yolu \u00f6zel t\u00fcketimin milli gelirde pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi yani ek refah\u0131n azalan tasarruftan kaynaklanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Di\u011feri ekonominin gelirinin \u00fczerinde harcamas\u0131 yani ek refah\u0131n<\/p>\n<p>d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131kla beslenmesidir. \u0130kisi bir arada \u201ckaymakl\u0131 kaday\u0131f\u201d olur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-120637303\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Etkileyici refah art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yani se\u00e7men i\u00e7in milli gelir soyut bir say\u0131d\u0131r. Kendi t\u00fcketiminde nicel ve nitel de\u011fi\u015fim ise somut ger\u00e7ektir. Ona bakar. Ancak i\u015fimiz burada bitmiyor. \u00dcstelik, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn \u00f6zellikleri \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc birimi tercihini de etkiliyor. A\u00e7al\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Milli gelir sabit TL fiyatlar\u0131 ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr dedik. Ya \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim? Refah kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 yaparken d\u00f6viz (ve kur) anlam kazan\u0131r. Birinci elden biliyoruz. De\u011ferli TL ithal mallar\u0131 ucuzlat\u0131yor. Daha \u00e7ok t\u00fcketilmesini sa\u011fl\u0131yor. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve refah\u0131 beraberce artt\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Say\u0131lara d\u00f6nelim. 2002\u2019de \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim 158 milyar dolard\u0131. 2010\u2019da 523 milyar dolara t\u0131rmand\u0131. Y\u00fczde 21 dolar enflasyonunu ve y\u00fczde 10 n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015felim. Sabit dolarla ile ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 150 oluyor. Sekiz y\u0131lda 2.5 kat\u0131 refah demektir. Etkileyicidir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1498908931\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bilmeceyi \u00e7\u00f6zd\u00fck. Do\u011fru \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcnce se\u00e7menin davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Bu arada analiz yeni bir pencere a\u00e7\u0131yor. H\u00fck\u00fcmet bu ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131 d\u00f6rt y\u0131l daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir mi? S\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeli mi? Hem iktisat politikas\u0131 hem siyaset a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik sorular bunlard\u0131r. Devam edece\u011fim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Asaf Sava\u015f AKAT<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Okuyucular\u0131ma mah\u00e7ubum. A\u00e7\u0131klanan verileri ve di\u011fer\u00a0g\u00fcncelgeli\u015fmeleri bo\u015flad\u0131m. \u00d6nce uzun bir konjonkt\u00fcr analizine giri\u015ftim. Ard\u0131ndan se\u00e7imlere odakland\u0131m. Bir s\u00fcre daha ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fclerine s\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131yorum. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay telafi ederim.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1722","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1722"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1722\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1722"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1722"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1722"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}