{"id":172,"date":"2011-05-09T20:44:37","date_gmt":"2011-05-09T17:44:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=172"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:50:47","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:50:47","slug":"reel-faiz-ve-enflasyon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/reel-faiz-ve-enflasyon\/","title":{"rendered":"Reel faiz ve enflasyon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Haftan\u0131n son iki g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc k\u00fcresel piyasalar heyecanl\u0131 ge\u00e7irdi. \u0130ki g\u00fcnde petrol fiyat\u0131 y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yak\u0131n tarihin en sert hareketidir. Alt\u0131n, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, vs. di\u011fer hammadde fiyatlar\u0131 da benzer \u015fekilde geriledi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3046592796\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130ki tefsir var. Biri arz-talep dengesini vurguluyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski art\u0131yor. Emtia talebini olumsuz etkiler. Di\u011feri spek\u00fclasyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131yor. Fiyat\u0131 \u015fi\u015firen spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler \u015fimdi sat\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ti diyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lgin\u00e7 \u015fekilde, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 euro-dolar paritesini de \u00e7arpt\u0131. K\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 1.50 ve \u00fcst\u00fc i\u00e7in kesin konu\u015fuluyordu. E\u011filim aniden tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Parite d\u00fcn 1.43\u2019e geriledi. Ne diyelim! Kur dalgalanmalar\u0131 insan\u0131 sersem ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>The Economist\u2019in son say\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kan T\u00fcrkiye yaz\u0131s\u0131 medyaya yans\u0131d\u0131. Maalesef daha g\u00f6remedim. Dergiyi \u00e7ok \u00f6nemsedi\u011fim biliniyor. Analizini merak ediyorum. Belki bir yaz\u0131 konusu yapar\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cAcaba?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r reel faiz talebi \u00fczerine tart\u0131\u015fmalar yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131. Bunda Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n konuyu canl\u0131 tutmas\u0131n\u0131n da etkisi var. Kampanya s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u00f6ylesine s\u00f6ylenen bir slogan olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6ncelikleri aras\u0131na girdi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131saca de\u011finip ge\u00e7mi\u015ftim. Y\u00fcksek faizin enflasyona yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kategorik kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131m: \u201cY\u00fcksek faiz enflasyonun nedeni de\u011fildir. Nokta. Sonucu da olmayabilir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sevgili dostum Ege Cansen d\u00fcn H\u00fcrriyet\u2019teki k\u00f6\u015fesinden hemen ayar\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015f. \u201cAcaba?\u201d diyor. Ya \u00f6yle de\u011filse demeye getiriyor. Ard\u0131ndan y\u00fcksek faizin enflasyonu t\u0131rmand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 hallere \u00f6rnekler veriyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2053739896\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ustan\u0131n laf\u0131n\u0131 daima ciddiye al\u0131r\u0131m. Bizim meslekte hayattan kopuk genellemelere \u00e7ok raslan\u0131r. Soyut modellerin teorik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fin kendi gibi alg\u0131lama huyu maalesef yayg\u0131nd\u0131r. Sa\u00e7ma sapan ezberler b\u00f6yle olu\u015fur.<\/p>\n<p>Bir ba\u015fka sorun daha var. Makro teori mevcut haline ABD\u2019de ula\u015ft\u0131. Do\u011fal olarak, ABD\u2019nin yap\u0131sal ve konjonkt\u00fcrel \u00f6zellikleri veri al\u0131nd\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ko\u015fullar\u0131 ise \u00e7ok farkl\u0131d\u0131r. Ge\u00e7i\u015fi sa\u011flayabilecek ara\u00e7lar ise yeni yeni beliriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Garip bir bar\u0131\u015f<\/p>\n<p>Bir ekonomiyi y\u00fcksek reel faize ta\u015f\u0131yan s\u00fcre\u00e7 fevkalade karma\u015f\u0131kt\u0131r. Garip \u00e7evrisellikler i\u00e7erir. \u00dclkeden \u00fclkeye, d\u00f6nemden d\u00f6neme farkl\u0131l\u0131klar g\u00f6sterir. T\u00fcrkiye y\u00fcksek kronik enflasyonun y\u00fcksek reel faizi nas\u0131l tetikledi\u011fini ya\u015fayarak \u00f6\u011frendi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2290579770\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bence \u00fc\u00e7 neden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bir: Y\u00fcksek enflasyonun dalga boyu b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr. Y\u00fczde 3 enflasyonun iki kat\u0131 y\u00fczde 6, y\u00fczde 60 enflasyonun ise y\u00fczde 120\u2019dir. Bu riski ancak y\u00fcksek reel faiz kapat\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ki: Y\u00fcksek enflasyon dolarizasyonu te\u015fvik eder. Yerle\u015fiklerin kendi paralar\u0131na sald\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131 ancak y\u00fcksek reel faiz engeller. \u00dc\u00e7: Y\u00fcksek enflasyon y\u00fcksek nominal faiz ve b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 demektir. Risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131 reel faizi y\u00fckseltir.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim esas soruna. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyonda y\u00fcksek reel faiz talebi k\u0131sarak enflasyonu denetleme arac\u0131d\u0131r. Halbuki y\u00fcksek enflasyon bu mekanizmay\u0131 bozar. Yani y\u00fcksek reel faiz ve y\u00fcksek enflasyon bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7inde ya\u015far. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fi yeterince kan\u0131tt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu noktada iktisat politikalar\u0131na girmek gerekiyor. Bug\u00fcn yerim bitti. Y\u00fcksek reel faize do\u011fru te\u015fhisin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc anlamay\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Devam edece\u011fim.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Haftan\u0131n son iki g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc k\u00fcresel piyasalar heyecanl\u0131 ge\u00e7irdi. \u0130ki g\u00fcnde petrol fiyat\u0131 y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yak\u0131n tarihin en sert hareketidir. Alt\u0131n, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, vs. di\u011fer hammadde&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=172"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=172"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=172"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=172"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}