{"id":17198,"date":"2012-06-30T00:14:53","date_gmt":"2012-06-29T22:14:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=17198"},"modified":"2012-06-30T00:15:13","modified_gmt":"2012-06-29T22:15:13","slug":"avrupa-nin-fendi-merkel-i-yendi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/avrupa-nin-fendi-merkel-i-yendi\/","title":{"rendered":"Avrupa&#8217; n\u0131n Fendi Merkel&#8217; i Yendi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Sarkozy yerine Holand ge\u00e7ti\u011fi g\u00fcn \u201cilk defa Avrupa i\u00e7in umut var\u201d diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcp s\u00f6yledi\u011fimde herkes beni fazla iyimser bulmu\u015ftu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-789798363\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Zirve \u00f6ncesi gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda herhangi bir sonu\u00e7 beklenmemesi gerekti\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131n net bir \u015fekilde \u00e7izilmesi sonras\u0131 Merkel\u2019in direncinin k\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcm iyimserli\u011fime ra\u011fmen ben bile beSendklemiyordum.En az birka\u00e7 zirve sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordum.Zirve sonucu bende oldu\u011fu gibi para piyasalar\u0131nda da \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Zirve devam ediyor\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u015eu ana kadar \u00e7\u0131kan ba\u015fl\u0131klardan alt\u0131 \u00e7izilmesi gerekenleri k\u0131saca \u00f6zetlemek gerekirse\u2026<\/p>\n<p>EFSF ve ESM birincil ve ikincil piyasadan tahvil alabilecek.Esm ve EFSF \u00fczerinden bankalar do\u011frudan sermayelendirilecek.Bu verilen kaynak \u00fclke bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc hanesine eklenmeyecek.Olas\u0131 bir \u00fclke borcu yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde ESM \u00f6ncelikli alacakl\u0131 olmayacak.\u00a0Yunanistan ve \u0130rlanda i\u00e7in istenilen kemer s\u0131kma tedbirleri gev\u015fetilmesi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclecek.B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye destek olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in 120 milyar euroluk bir kaynak aktar\u0131m\u0131ndan bahsediliyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lk \u00e7\u0131kan mesajlar son d\u00f6nemde \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n ve sonras\u0131nda olas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f kaynak alacak \u00fclkelerin tahvil faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesine sebep olan sorunlar\u0131n\u00a0 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.Tahvil faizlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya tahvil faizlerinde sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 Almanya\u2019n\u0131n tahvil faizlerindeki sert y\u00fckseli\u015f zirvenin sonucunu teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Para piyasalar\u0131 zirve \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00fczerinden att\u0131ktan sonra \u00e7\u0131kan \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerin krizin sonland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na yetip yetmeyece\u011fi k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye bence Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz karar\u0131ndan sonra ba\u015flayacaklar.5 Temmuz\u2019a kadar \u015fu ana kadar yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalardan geri ad\u0131m at\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a olumlu hava s\u00fcrebilir.ECB\u2019den olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimi ve ya yeni bir LTRO haberi olumlu havay\u0131 destekleyecektir.Toplant\u0131 sonucuna y\u00f6nelik beklentiler de bu y\u00f6nde\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Parite zirve sonras\u0131 1,263 direncine kadar tepki verdi.1,243-1,229 destek seviyeleri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.1,273(50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama) direnci yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7ilmeden yukar\u0131 hareketin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1333882841\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>ABD taraf\u0131nda konut piyasas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik son gelen verilerde dipten d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olabilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik bir\u00a0 izlenim var.Ancak as\u0131l kritik veri son iki ayd\u0131r beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim i\u00e7eri\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131kta iyile\u015fme s\u00fcr\u00fcyor mu?B\u00fcy\u00fcme devam ediyor mu?Enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor mu?<\/p>\n<p>Bu sorular\u0131n yan\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015f yava\u015f almaya ba\u015flad\u0131k.Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan beklentilerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen d\u0131\u015f ticaret verisi sonras\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131kta ya\u015fanan iyile\u015fmenin h\u0131z kesti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.Pazartesi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi de d\u0131\u015f ticaret gibi bir miktar hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratabilir.Zira ilk \u00e7eyrek sanayi \u00fcretimi %2,7 civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti.A\u011f\u0131r k\u0131\u015f \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131n hissedildi\u011fi aylara denk gelen 1. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisinin bu rakama yak\u0131n bir yerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenebilir\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2134160549\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ay d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz enflasyon verisinde bu ay baz etkisi nedeniyle y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6rmemiz olas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetlemek gerekirse pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fmaya neden olabilecek i\u00e7eride a\u00e7\u0131klanan veri paketinde bu hafta bir tak\u0131m hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratacak rakamlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabiliriz.\u0130MKB taraf\u0131nda veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczeltmeye sebep olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnsem de d\u0131\u015far\u0131da ki hava bozulmadan trendin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde bozulmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130MKB i\u00e7in teknik olarak 61,200-60,000 destekler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde k\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a hedef 63,600 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar Fed \u00f6ncesi 1,78 TL destek seviyelerini test ettikten sonra i\u00e7eride Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n TL likidite sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar sonras\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede dolar i\u00e7in yeni band\u0131n 1,78 TL-1,84 TL aras\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebilirim.K\u0131sa vadede Fed\u2019den\u00a0 yeni bir parasal geni\u015fleme veya Merkez Bankas\u0131ndan dolar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde bask\u0131lay\u0131c\u0131 bir m\u00fcdahale beklemedi\u011fim i\u00e7in 1,78 TL destek seviyesi alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok olas\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Alt\u0131n 1550-1520 destek noktalar\u0131 takip edilebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Figen \u00d6ZAVCI<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sarkozy yerine Holand ge\u00e7ti\u011fi g\u00fcn \u201cilk defa Avrupa i\u00e7in umut var\u201d diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcp s\u00f6yledi\u011fimde herkes beni fazla iyimser bulmu\u015ftu. Zirve \u00f6ncesi gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda herhangi bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14450,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17198","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17198"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17198\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17198"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17198"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17198"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}