{"id":17146,"date":"2012-06-28T08:21:52","date_gmt":"2012-06-28T06:21:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=17146"},"modified":"2012-06-28T08:22:19","modified_gmt":"2012-06-28T06:22:19","slug":"ikinci-ceyrek-buyumesi-giderek-belirginlesiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ikinci-ceyrek-buyumesi-giderek-belirginlesiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130kinci \u00c7eyrek B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi Giderek Belirginle\u015fiyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>N\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131f\u0131r b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ya da \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmenin ikinci \u00e7eyrekte de s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 ihtimali \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-484785200\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin en g\u00fcncel veri hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Art\u0131k haziran ay\u0131na ait reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksinin ve endeksi olu\u015fturan alt kalemlerin de\u011ferlerini biliyoruz. Endeksin 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda de\u011ferler almas\u0131, endeksin olu\u015fturulmas\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan ankete yan\u0131t veren T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerinin ekonomiye g\u00fcven duymad\u0131klar\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Endeks de\u011feri ne kadar 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda ise bu g\u00fcvensizlik o kadar fazla oluyor. 100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeki de\u011ferler i\u00e7in tam tersi ge\u00e7erli. Kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde, endeks uzun s\u00fcre 100\u2019\u00fcn olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. En son 2008\u2019in sonlar\u0131 ve 2009\u2019un \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131nda durum b\u00f6yleydi. 2010\u2019un ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ise sadece bir kez 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, o da 2011\u2019in son ay\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bu bir ayl\u0131k g\u00f6zleme \u2018tak\u0131lmamak\u2019 gerekiyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Haziran 2012 itibariyle reel kesimin ekonomiye g\u00fcven duydu\u011funu belirtmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<br \/>\nSon yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 arad\u0131\u011f\u0131m soru a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise endeksin 100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ya da alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131ndan \u00e7ok, son aylarda nas\u0131l seyretti\u011fi \u00f6nemli. Zira merak etti\u011fim \u015fu: 2012\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yava\u015flayan ekonomimiz ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ne durumda? Bug\u00fcne kadar yay\u0131mlanan veriler ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin ilkinden pek farkl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyor. Ancak \u00e7o\u011fu veri nisan ay\u0131na ait, birka\u00e7 tane de may\u0131s ay\u0131 verisi var elimizde. \u0130lk defa haziran ay\u0131na ait bir veri yay\u0131mland\u0131. Grafikte reel kesim endeksinin ayl\u0131k de\u011ferlerinin bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re ne kadar de\u011fi\u015ftikleri g\u00f6steriliyor. S\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki de\u011ferler bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla g\u00fcvende erozyon oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. \u0130lk saptama \u015fu: Ekonomiye g\u00fcven duyuluyor olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n 2011\u2019in a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan bu yana bu g\u00fcvende bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla azalma var. \u00dcstelik son aylarda g\u00fcven kayb\u0131 ortadan kalk\u0131yor gibiyken haziran ay\u0131nda artarak s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.radikal.com.tr\/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalYazar&amp;ArticleID=1092478&amp;Yazar=FATIH-OZATAY&amp;CategoryID=101\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>N\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131f\u0131r b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ya da \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmenin ikinci \u00e7eyrekte de s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 ihtimali \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin en g\u00fcncel veri&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17146","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17146","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17146"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17146\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17146"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17146"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17146"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}