{"id":17046,"date":"2012-06-26T08:24:16","date_gmt":"2012-06-26T06:24:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=17046"},"modified":"2012-06-26T08:24:36","modified_gmt":"2012-06-26T06:24:36","slug":"hep-buyumeden-feragat-mi-edecegiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/hep-buyumeden-feragat-mi-edecegiz\/","title":{"rendered":"Hep B\u00fcy\u00fcmeden Feragat mi Edece\u011fiz?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden feragat ederek mi hafifletecek, \u00f6nemli bir zafiyet de\u011fil mi bu?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1551187758\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ekonomimiz birinci \u00e7eyrekte \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yava\u015flad\u0131. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin birinciden bu a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00e7ok da farkl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima eden g\u00f6stergeler var. Olsa olsa bu yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6neminin ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru bitmi\u015f olabilece\u011fi belirtilebilir. Sonras\u0131nda ise Avrupa\u2019daki kriz derinle\u015fmezse g\u00f6rece daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6nemine girmemiz bekleniyor. Ama sonu\u00e7ta Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da y\u00fczde 4 olarak tahmin edilen b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalma ihtimalimiz olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. Bu durumda cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fmenin, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda son zamanlarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen d\u00fc\u015fmeye kar\u015f\u0131n birka\u00e7 ay sonra durmas\u0131, sonra da yerini \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 da olsa bozulmaya b\u0131rakmas\u0131 beklenir. Avrupa\u2019daki kriz daha da derinle\u015fir ve k\u00fcresel finansal piyasalar\u0131 tehdit eder hale gelirse elbette bu analiz ge\u00e7erli olmaz.<br \/>\nB\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n bunca d\u00fc\u015fmesine ve potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z olan y\u00fczde 4.5-5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok alt\u0131na inmesine kar\u015f\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriyor olmam\u0131z\u0131 tekrar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmemiz gerekiyor. Bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u015fu: Uluslararas\u0131 risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131y\u0131z. Bu i\u015ftahtaki azalma hemen cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan do\u011fan finansman gereksinmemizi kar\u015f\u0131lamakta zorlanmam\u0131za yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. En son bu olguyu 2011\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ba\u015flayan s\u00fcre\u00e7te ya\u015fad\u0131k.<br \/>\nBu k\u00f6\u015fede hep yapageldi\u011fim gibi net hata ve noksan kaleminden gelen finansman katk\u0131s\u0131yla ve resmi rezervlerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131yla sa\u011flanan finansman\u0131 bir tarafa b\u0131rak\u0131p, \u2018normal finansman\u2019 olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131m sermaye hareketlerine odaklan\u0131nca, son aylarda \u00f6nemli bir finansman a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fu hemen saptan\u0131yor. Grafikte, on iki ayl\u0131k toplamlar olarak hem finansman ihtiyac\u0131 (cari a\u00e7\u0131k) hem de normal finansman ile finansman ihtiyac\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark g\u00f6steriliyor. Bu fark\u0131n art\u0131 de\u011ferler almas\u0131 finansman fazlas\u0131 oldu\u011funu ifade ediyor. G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi 2011\u2019in a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan bu yana finansman a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. Bu a\u00e7\u0131k Nisan 2012\u2019de 18.2 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Do\u011fru; son on iki ayl\u0131k toplamlara de\u011fil de ayl\u0131k verilere bak\u0131nca elimizdeki en g\u00fcncel verilerin oldu\u011fu nisan ay\u0131nda finansman a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerine fazlas\u0131 oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu, olumlu bir geli\u015fme elbette. Ancak sonucu de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor; yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda gerginlik artt\u0131k\u00e7a finansmanda zorlan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.radikal.com.tr\/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalYazar&amp;ArticleID=1092262&amp;Yazar=FATIH-OZATAY&amp;CategoryID=101\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden feragat ederek mi hafifletecek, \u00f6nemli bir zafiyet de\u011fil mi bu? Ekonomimiz birinci \u00e7eyrekte \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yava\u015flad\u0131. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin birinciden&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17046","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17046"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17046\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17046"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17046"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17046"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}