{"id":16957,"date":"2012-06-22T12:51:39","date_gmt":"2012-06-22T10:51:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=16957"},"modified":"2012-06-22T12:51:57","modified_gmt":"2012-06-22T10:51:57","slug":"piyasalar-neden-ralli-yapiyor-karrrdesiiim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/piyasalar-neden-ralli-yapiyor-karrrdesiiim\/","title":{"rendered":"Piyasalar Neden Ralli Yap\u0131yor Karrrde\u015fiiim?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<p><strong>Avrupa\u2026<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2813163992\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130spanya bankalar\u0131n\u0131n sermaye ihtiyac\u0131 en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoya g\u00f6re 62 milyar euro olacakm\u0131\u015f.Bu tutara \u201c\u015fu an\u201d olan ihtiya\u00e7 g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bakmak laz\u0131m.Zira \u0130spanya\u2019da olas\u0131 bat\u0131k kredi miktar\u0131 152 milyar euro\u2019ya ula\u015ft\u0131.Rakam\u0131 para piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 \u00e7ok sorgulamad\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc zaten \u0130spanya bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlanan kredi paketi 100 milyar euro civar\u0131nda dolay\u0131s\u0131yla 62 milyar \u015fimdi al\u0131r gerisini sonra da alabilir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor olmal\u0131lar\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi bu kredi dilimi ve sonras\u0131n\u0131 sorgulayalm\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Bu hafta en \u00e7ok al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klama \u201cEFSF \u00fczerinden bankalar sermayelendirilsin\u201d \u201cEFSF \u00fczerinden bor\u00e7 sorunlu \u00fclke tahvili al\u0131ns\u0131n\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Klasik bu haberler sonras\u0131 Bayan Merkel b\u00f6yle bir \u015feyin olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 net bir \u015fekilde belirtti\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Olay\u0131n bu k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 zaten hepimiz biliyoruz.As\u0131l soru \u015fu EFSF \u00fczerinden bankalar sermayelendirilir veya \u00fclke tahvili al\u0131n\u0131rsa sorun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcyor mu?<\/p>\n<p>EFSF\u2019de kurtar\u0131lan \u00fclkeler sonras\u0131 kalan fon miktar\u0131 200-240 milyar euro civar\u0131nda bu kalan fonun b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n garant\u00f6r\u00fc \u0130spanya\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi geldi\u011fimiz noktada sadece \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 bat\u0131k kredi miktar\u0131n\u0131n 150 milyar oldu\u011funu varsayarsak geri kalan miktarla bor\u00e7 sorunlu \u00fclkelerin tahvil al\u0131m\u0131 ve farkl\u0131 bankalar\u0131n sermayelendirilmesi i\u00e7in yeterli tutar\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fikar\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2789675270\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu krediyi TMSF benzeri bir kurum \u00fczerinden bankalara enjekte edilmesi planlan\u0131yor.Buraya kadar her \u015fey g\u00fczel.As\u0131l sorun \u015fu ki verilen kredinin \u00fclke bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rmas\u0131 sonucu tahvil faizlerinin %7\u2019lere yakla\u015fmas\u0131 ve tabi ki di\u011fer bor\u00e7 sorunlu \u00fclkelere b\u00f6yle bir rahatl\u0131k neden sunulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sm\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde en \u00e7ok konu\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z konulardan biri bence\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Nitekim Y\u00fcnanistan\u2019da h\u00fck\u00fcmet kurmaya aday partiler al\u0131nan kemer s\u0131kma tedbirleri,kredi geri \u00f6demelerini sorgulama konusunda anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gelelim ESM diye bahsedilen kal\u0131c\u0131 kurtarma fonuna\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn ve bu hafta kal\u0131c\u0131 kurtarma fonunun bor\u00e7 sorunlu \u00fclke tahvili alma ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k lisans\u0131 verilmesi konusunu tart\u0131\u015facak Avrupal\u0131 liderler Merkel direnciyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmazlar ise ESM \u00fczerinden tahvil al\u0131m\u0131,banka sermayelendirmesi bir se\u00e7enek olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.Tahmini 500 milyar euro olabilecek fon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne y\u0131l i\u00e7erinde nakit enjekte edilebilecek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3758431736\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Varolan y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131 bu nedenle y\u00fckselen maliyetler,d\u00fc\u015fen konut fiyatlar\u0131,yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme Avrupa i\u00e7in art\u0131k yeterli vaktin kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.S\u00f6ylemlerin krizde hareket etmek i\u00e7in son bir haftaya girildi\u011finin belirtilmesinin sebebi bu\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetlemem gerekirse ESM\u2019yi do\u011fru yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131rlarsa piyasada tahvil faizleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilebilecek,bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki sistem riskini(mevduat ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilmesi) ortadan kald\u0131rabilecek bir ortam yarat\u0131labilir.Bu arada 5 Temmuzda Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz indirimi veya yeni bir LTRO ad\u0131m\u0131 atarsa bu yaz s\u0131ca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 para piyasalar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda rahat ge\u00e7irebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fin ekonomik k\u0131sm\u0131ndaki karanl\u0131k tabloyu konu\u015fmaya devam edece\u011fiz.Ancak para yok olmayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bir g\u00fcn bat\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir g\u00fcn kurtar\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamaya devam edecek.Ekonomik ortam bu kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc iken bu piyasalar neden ralli yap\u0131yor karrrde\u015fiiim? Demeyin\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Para uyumaz\u2026F\u0131rsat\u0131 bulur..De\u011ferlendirir\u2026Kenara \u00e7ekilir\u2026\u015eimdi bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyor\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gelelim ABD\u2019ye\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Son d\u00f6nemde Asya ve ABD\u2019den gelen tahmin ve veriler yava\u015flaman\u0131n sertle\u015fece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.Resmi olarak neredeyse t\u00fcm\u00fc resesyona giren Avrupa \u00fclkelerine bak\u0131nca k\u00f6t\u00fcn\u00fcn iyisi konumunda dursalar da gelecek g\u00fcnlerden herkes gibi bu \u00fclkelerde endi\u015feli.Son d\u00f6nemde \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimi yeni te\u015fvik vs kervan\u0131na FED\u2019de eklenerek operation twist\u2019e devam dedi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Fed\u2019in att\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ad\u0131m para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n beklentisini kar\u015f\u0131lamasa da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6neme y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131\u00a0 yeni parasal geni\u015flemenin habercisi niteli\u011finde zira.anketlere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda pek \u00e7ok ki\u015fi de benim gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Ve i\u00e7erisi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Merkez bankas\u0131 elinde bulundurdu\u011fu politika ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fik \u015fekillerde kullan\u0131yor.Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz d\u00f6nem yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda belirtti\u011fim gibi Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar i\u00e7eride TL likiditeyi art\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6nde devam ediyor.Adl\u0131 ad\u0131nca olmasa da yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etki\u00a0 faiz indirimi niteli\u011finde.\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde faiz\u00a0 koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fi sinyalini ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m bu tavr\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisi yava\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a devam\u0131 gelebilir.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ortam\u0131,d\u00fc\u015fen maliyetler,artan karlar,petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyorsa,cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve enflasyon k\u0131sa vadede risk s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015fse T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin notu neden artmas\u0131n?<\/p>\n<p>Moody\u2019s c\u00f6mertlikle bu hafta bize b\u00f6yle bir jest yapt\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n tavr\u0131na tam ters bu hareket olmas\u0131 gerekenden ge\u00e7 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen s\u00fcrpriz oldu.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u015fu an bulundu\u011fu ortam ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gere\u011fi k\u00f6t\u00fcn\u00fcn iyisiyiz\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Ancak ger\u00e7ek iyilik herkesin ekonomisi iyi oldu\u011funda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar.O zaman veri k\u0131yaslamas\u0131nda benzerlerinizi geride b\u0131rakabiliyorsak ger\u00e7ekten art\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ekonomiyiz demektir\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gelelim i\u015fin teknik k\u0131sm\u0131na\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130MKB:61,000 diren\u00e7 ge\u00e7ilirse teknik olarak yukar\u0131 izlenimi veren endekste bu seviye a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa hareket 63,700\u2019e kadar devam edebilir.Varolan pozisyonlar i\u00e7in takip edilmesi gereken seviye k\u0131sa vadeli 59,200 \u00a0destek orta vade i\u00e7in 58,100(50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama) destek seviyeleridir.Bu seviyeler k\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a pozisyonlar korunabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Parite:\u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerin tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 onaylan\u0131p uygulamaya konulmas\u0131n\u0131n zaman alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00e7ok \u00fcmidim olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fcr\u00fcst\u00e7e itiraf etmem gerekiyor.Varolan sorunlara organize \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm zinciri olu\u015fturamayan Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n bu yava\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 Fed\u2019in atak olu\u015fu paritede olas\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engelliyor.\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde de \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme yakla\u015fan durumlarda tepki vermesini bekledi\u011fim parite i\u00e7in takip edilmesi gereken seviye 1,28(50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama) diren\u00e7 ge\u00e7ilmeden yukar\u0131 hareket h\u0131zlanamaz.Takip edilmesi gereken destek seviyelerine gelince:1,254-1,243-1,229<\/p>\n<p>Alt\u0131n:Fed\u2019den umdu\u011funu bulamayan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in geri \u00e7ekilme noktalar\u0131 1550-1520\u2026<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sa vadede umutlar\u0131n ye\u015fermesi durumunda ki(ben iyimser taraftay\u0131m)1587-1620 tepki verece\u011fi seviyeler\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Dolar: Fed sonras\u0131 1,78 TL destek seviyesi \u00fczerinde hareketin bir s\u00fcre devam\u0131 beklenebilir.1,81-1,82 TL ilk diren\u00e7 seviyeleri olarak g\u00f6ze \u00e7arp\u0131yor\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa\u2026 \u0130spanya bankalar\u0131n\u0131n sermaye ihtiyac\u0131 en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoya g\u00f6re 62 milyar euro olacakm\u0131\u015f.Bu tutara \u201c\u015fu an\u201d olan ihtiya\u00e7 g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bakmak laz\u0131m.Zira \u0130spanya\u2019da olas\u0131 bat\u0131k kredi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14450,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16957"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16957\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}