{"id":16896,"date":"2012-06-21T09:10:23","date_gmt":"2012-06-21T07:10:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=16896"},"modified":"2012-06-21T09:10:42","modified_gmt":"2012-06-21T07:10:42","slug":"ikinci-ceyrek-ilkinden-farkli-mi-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ikinci-ceyrek-ilkinden-farkli-mi-2\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130kinci \u00c7eyrek \u0130lkinden Farkl\u0131 m\u0131 (2)?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Endeksteki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya gidi\u015f s\u00fcreci ekonomik toparlanman\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in kan\u0131t m\u0131?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-112255935\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalacak gibi duruyor. Kredi hacminin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 nisan ay\u0131ndan itibaren y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131; ilk bak\u0131\u015fta, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan birincisinden farkl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrebilir. Derine inince, b\u00f6yle bir yorumun \u00e7ok da do\u011fru olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130ki nedenle: Birincisi, kredi hacmindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m ve t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ferek \u00fcretimi canland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n belli bir gecikmeyle olmas\u0131 beklenir. \u0130kinci neden, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler endeksinin hareketi.<br \/>\nElimizdeki en son \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge endeksi verisi may\u0131s ay\u0131na ait. \u00d6nc\u00fc endeks, hem sanayi \u00fcretimindeki hem de gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131ladaki (GSYH) devreleri \u00f6nceden haber verme potansiyeline sahip. Mesela, \u00f6nc\u00fc endeksin zirveye eri\u015fip ini\u015f s\u00fcrecine ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarih, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n (sanayi \u00fcretiminin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n) zirveye eri\u015ftikten sonra ge\u00e7ti\u011fi yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/daralma s\u00fcrecinin ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 tarihinden \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. Tersi de ge\u00e7erli. \u00d6nc\u00fc endeksin dibe vurma zaman\u0131 da GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131ndaki (sanayi \u00fcretimi b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131ndaki) dip noktadan \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor.<br \/>\nS\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim ili\u015fkiler Grafik 1\u2019de g\u00f6steriliyor. Grafikte sanayi \u00fcretim endeksindeki y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde art\u0131\u015flar ile endeksin alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde de\u011fi\u015fimleri var. Bir parantez: TCMB ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131 alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimlerin \u00f6nden gelme \u00f6zelli\u011finin a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyorlar. \u0130lgilenenler TCMB\u2019nin web sayfas\u0131ndan ilgili rapora \u2018yay\u0131nlar\/kitaplar\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan ula\u015fabilirler (2005 y\u0131l\u0131nda A. Atabek, E. Co\u015far ve S. \u015eahin\u00f6z taraf\u0131ndan kaleme al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f). Her iki de\u011fi\u015fen aras\u0131nda ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kuvvetli bir ili\u015fki var. Daha \u00f6nemlisi, burada \u00e7ok k\u0131sa bir d\u00f6nem ele al\u0131nmakla birlikte, \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge endeksinin \u2018d\u00f6n\u00fcm\u2019 zamanlar\u0131n\u0131n sanayi \u00fcretimindekilerden \u00f6nce geldi\u011fine dikkat. S\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim yay\u0131nda \u00f6nc\u00fc endeksin \u00f6nden gelme performans\u0131na ili\u015fkin ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bilgi var.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.radikal.com.tr\/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalYazar&amp;ArticleID=1091743&amp;Yazar=FATIH-OZATAY&amp;CategoryID=101\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Endeksteki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya gidi\u015f s\u00fcreci ekonomik toparlanman\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in kan\u0131t m\u0131? \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalacak gibi duruyor. Kredi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16896","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16896","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16896"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16896\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16896"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16896"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16896"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}