{"id":16849,"date":"2012-06-20T09:47:09","date_gmt":"2012-06-20T07:47:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=16849"},"modified":"2012-06-20T11:47:19","modified_gmt":"2012-06-20T09:47:19","slug":"ekonomimizde-toparlanma-basliyor-mu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ekonomimizde-toparlanma-basliyor-mu\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomimizde Toparlanma Ba\u015fl\u0131yor mu?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir d\u00fczeye ula\u015fan b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z giderek d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda ekonomimizdeki \u00e7arklar olduk\u00e7a yava\u015f d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Muhtemelen ilk \u00e7eyrekteki y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 2&#8217;nin alt\u0131nda kalacak. 2011&#8217;in son \u00e7eyre\u011findeki y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5.2 oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlan\u0131nca, y\u00fczde 2&#8217;nin alt\u0131n\u0131n baya\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00c7o\u011fu veri, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011findeki faaliyet hacminin ilk \u00e7eyrektekinden \u00e7ok da farkl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2224445582\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, elimizdeki en g\u00fcncel verilerden iki tanesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru e\u011filimin \u015fu s\u0131ralarda tersine d\u00f6nmekte olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bunlardan ilki yurti\u00e7i kredi hacmi. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak ilk be\u015f aydaki kredi geli\u015fmelerini incelemi\u015ftim. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131ndaki kredi hacminin d\u00f6nemsel art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir d\u00fczeydeydi (Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, haftal\u0131k kredi rakamlar\u0131na son on \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 olarak bak\u0131nca). T\u00fcketici kredilerinde d\u00f6nemsel art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 ancak enflasyon kadard\u0131. Lira cinsinden kredilerde ise enflasyonun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu ama aradaki fark k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckt\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Oysa sonra durum de\u011fi\u015fti. Elimizde en son 1 Haziran ile biten haftan\u0131n verileri var. Kredilerde nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren bir art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6zleniyor. Ancak bu y\u00fckseli\u015f ekonomide toparlanman\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemiyor bize. Zira kredi hacmindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m ve t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ferek \u00fcretimi canland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n belli bir gecikmeyle olmas\u0131 beklenir.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ikinci olumlu sinyal, Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 &#8216;bile\u015fik \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler endeksi&#8217;nden geliyor. Ancak bu \u00e7ok zay\u0131f bir sinyal. Bu veri hem sanayi \u00fcretimindeki hem de gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131ladaki (GSYH) devreleri \u00f6nceden haber verme potansiyeline sahip. Mesela, \u00f6nc\u00fc endeksin zirveye eri\u015fip ini\u015f s\u00fcrecine ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarih, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n (sanayi \u00fcretiminin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n) zirveye eri\u015ftikten sonra ge\u00e7ti\u011fi yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/daralma s\u00fcrecinin ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 tarihinden \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. Tersi de ge\u00e7erli. \u00d6nc\u00fc endeksin dibe vurma zaman\u0131 da GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131ndaki (sanayi \u00fcretimi b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131ndaki) dip noktadan \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. \u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge endeksi bir s\u00fcredir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya ini\u015f s\u00fcrecindeydi. Bu s\u00fcrecin \u015eubat 2012 itibariyle durdu\u011funa ili\u015fkin \u00e7ok ama \u00e7ok zay\u0131f bir sinyal var. Elimizdeki en son \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge endeksi verisinin may\u0131s ay\u0131na ait oldu\u011funu da belirteyim.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.dunya.com\/ekonomimizde-toparlanma-basliyor-mu-148719yy.htm\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir d\u00fczeye ula\u015fan b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z giderek d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda ekonomimizdeki \u00e7arklar olduk\u00e7a yava\u015f d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Muhtemelen&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16849","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16849"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16849\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}