{"id":167,"date":"2011-05-19T20:37:41","date_gmt":"2011-05-19T17:37:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=167"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:48:02","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:48:02","slug":"turk-usulu-ekonomi-politikasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/turk-usulu-ekonomi-politikasi\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrk Usul\u00fc Ekonomi Politikas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek \u00f6nemli ama orta-uzun d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelimizi ithalata dayal\u0131 olmaktan \u00e7\u0131karmam\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1950471122\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Krizden \u00f6nce, faizi gereksiz yere y\u00fcksek tutarak s\u0131cak para giri\u015fine ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kurun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik ele\u015ftiriler \u2018y\u00fcksek faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur politikas\u0131\u2019 s\u00f6z\u00fcyle \u00f6zetleniyordu. Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu yanl\u0131\u015f politikadan krizde d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve faizi pe\u015f pe\u015fe d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek s\u0131cak paraya sa\u011flanan \u00e7ekicili\u011fi bir miktar indirdi. Ne var ki geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin \u00e7o\u011funda faizler s\u0131f\u0131r d\u00fczeyine geriledi\u011fi i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de y\u00fczde 8 dolay\u0131ndaki nominal faiz, kendi \u00fclkesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon ya\u015fayan yabanc\u0131lar i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok \u00e7ekici.<br \/>\nMerkez Bankas\u0131, bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce para politikas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirme arac\u0131 olarak kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizini bu amac\u0131n arac\u0131 olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Onun yerine bu kez gecelik repo faizini koydu. Ard\u0131ndan para politikas\u0131 arac\u0131 olarak g\u00f6zden d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olan, hatta bu ama\u00e7la kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na iyi g\u00f6zle bak\u0131lmayan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar politikas\u0131 devreye sokuldu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar <\/strong><br \/>\nMerkez Bankas\u0131 mevduat kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 bir yandan artt\u0131rarak bir yandan da bunlara \u00f6denen faizi \u00f6demekten vazge\u00e7erek bu unutulmu\u015f politika arac\u0131n\u0131 uygulamaya soktu. Bankalar\u0131n faiz kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda toplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 mevduat\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc faizsiz olarak kendisinde toplayarak h\u0131zla artan kredi hacmini denetlemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Faiz \u00f6demeden mevduat kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131na \u2018kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u2019 ad\u0131 veriliyor. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n vergiden pek bir fark\u0131 yok. Bu haliyle bankalara ortalama y\u00fczde 13 dolay\u0131nda bir ek vergi konmu\u015f gibi oldu. \u00dcstelik bu vergi, kazan\u00e7 ya da k\u00e2rdan de\u011fil mevduattan al\u0131n\u0131yor. Yani bir anlamda ciro vergisi gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar, hatta kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar uygulamas\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede olan bir uygulama. Ne var ki bunun oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 10\u2019u ge\u00e7ti\u011finde ve ge\u00e7en b\u00f6l\u00fcme faiz verilmedi\u011finde i\u015fin rengi de\u011fi\u015fiyor.<br \/>\n\u0130lk sonu\u00e7lara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 frenlemekte pek bir i\u015fe yaramad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bence bu \u00f6nlemlerle bu sonucun al\u0131namayaca\u011f\u0131 belliydi. \u015eimdiye kadar bu yolda maliye politikas\u0131 uygulamas\u0131 da yap\u0131lmad\u0131. Bu durumda kritik soru \u015fu: Biz cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek istiyor muyuz? Ben buna hemen olumlu yan\u0131t veremiyorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa dayal\u0131 ekonomi politikas\u0131 <\/strong><br \/>\nY\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve s\u0131cak para giri\u015fi at ba\u015f\u0131 geli\u015fiyor. Her ikisi de TL\u2019nin de\u011ferli olmas\u0131n\u0131, GSYH\u2019nin oldu\u011fundan y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesini, GSYH ile hesaplanan oranlar\u0131n olumlu \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ekonominin daha iyi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesini sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca ucuz TL, ithalat\u0131 artt\u0131rarak ithalattan al\u0131nan vergileri artt\u0131r\u0131yor, bu da b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6te yandan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferli TL, enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na da yard\u0131m ediyor. TL ne kadar de\u011ferli olursa enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 o kadar art\u0131yor. Yani cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131n\u0131n say\u0131lamayacak kadar \u00e7ok yarar\u0131 var. Bu durumda siyaset\u00e7i, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi ni\u00e7in dert edinsin ki? Herkesin \u015fik\u00e2yet etti\u011fi cari a\u00e7\u0131kla m\u00fccadele ediyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnerek para politikas\u0131 uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda siyaset\u00e7iye bir fatura da \u00e7\u0131km\u0131yor. Oysa maliye politikas\u0131, faturan\u0131n siyaset\u00e7iye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lan\u0131r.<br \/>\nBu kadar yarar\u0131 bulunan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n tek riski, bu politikay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilmenin zorlu\u011funda yat\u0131yor. Bu riske kar\u015f\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye son y\u0131llarda bu riskli politikay\u0131 ekonomi politikas\u0131n\u0131n temeli haline getirmi\u015f durumda. K\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek \u00f6nemli, ama orta uzun d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelimizi ithalata dayal\u0131 olmaktan \u00e7\u0131karmam\u0131z gerekiyor. K\u0131sa d\u00f6nemler eklene eklene uzun d\u00f6nem oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek \u00f6nemli ama orta-uzun d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelimizi ithalata dayal\u0131 olmaktan \u00e7\u0131karmam\u0131z gerekiyor. Krizden \u00f6nce, faizi gereksiz yere y\u00fcksek tutarak s\u0131cak para giri\u015fine ve&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":917,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=167"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}