2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n birinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bitirmek \u00fczereyiz. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131ndaki tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 umar\u0131m hat\u0131rl\u0131yorsunuzdur. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bu yava\u015flaman\u0131n sert mi yumu\u015fak m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 konusu ciddi bir tart\u0131\u015fma ve ayr\u0131\u015fma konusu olmu\u015ftu.\u00a0 .
\nDikkat ederseniz her iki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ortak bir kabul\u00fc var. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 konusundaki ortak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bu.\u00a0 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda\u00a0 hemen b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin\u00a0 yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131\u00a0 genel kabul g\u00f6ren bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc. Biz de benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7ten ge\u00e7ece\u011fiz, yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131z. D\u00fcnyadan ayr\u0131\u015fmad\u0131k yani.
\nD\u00fcnyada genel bir yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ama yava\u015flaman\u0131n\u00a0 dozuna ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131\u00a0 burada da var.\u00a0 Genel olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde yava\u015flaman\u0131n g\u00f6rece daha sert olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc hakim.\u00a0 Kimilerinde doz \u015fa\u015facak, yava\u015flama resesyon s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na dayanacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Avrupa bunun \u00f6rne\u011fi. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde ise\u00a0 genel olarak yava\u015flaman\u0131n daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve yumu\u015fak olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.
\nBiz malum geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler grubunday\u0131z. Bu grubun genel e\u011filimine uyup,\u00a0 g\u00f6rece yumu\u015fak bir ini\u015f yapaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z s\u00f6ylenebilir. Ancak bunun tersini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrecek baz\u0131 \u00f6zelliklerimizin oldu\u011fu, bunlar\u0131n bizi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke grubundan ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fini de g\u00f6zden uzak tutmamak laz\u0131m. Bu t\u00fcr \u00f6zelliklerimizin ba\u015f\u0131nda\u00a0 Avrupa ile olan ili\u015fki yo\u011funlu\u011fumuz geliyor. Avrupa’n\u0131n a\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n bizi de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekece\u011fi ve yava\u015flama dozumuzu sertle\u015ftirebilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.
\n*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *
\nKendi ad\u0131ma T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisindeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n yumu\u015fak dozda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bunun i\u00e7in de birka\u00e7 nedenim var. Ekonominin son k\u00fcresel krizden a\u011f\u0131r bir yara almadan \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 bunlardan birisi. Kriz s\u00fcrecinde bizde de sert bir ini\u015f oldu ama bunun y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki dozu g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, reel ve finansal alanda ciddi bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ya\u015fanmadan krizi ge\u00e7tik.\u00a0 Bunun 2012 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel yava\u015flamay\u0131 g\u00f6rece yumu\u015fak bir ini\u015fle ge\u00e7memize \u00f6nemli bir katk\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.
\nKriz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131n\u0131n, 2012’ye\u00a0 de b\u00f6yle bir h\u0131zla girilmesinin\u00a0 yumu\u015fak ini\u015fe destek veren bir etken oldu\u011fu kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.
\nNihayet, k\u00fcresel kriz s\u00fcrecinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir mali ve parasal geni\u015flemeyle ge\u00e7ilmesinin olas\u0131 bir sert ini\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131na ciddi bir m\u00fcdahale marj\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.\u00a0 Bu marj\u00a0 y\u00fcksek dozlu bir yava\u015flama e\u011filiminin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde maliye ve\u00a0 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 gev\u015feterek\u00a0 bunu g\u00f6\u011f\u00fcsleme imkan\u0131 verir. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle, yava\u015flaman\u0131n sert ini\u015fe d\u00f6nme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi noktada canland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemleri devreye sokarak yava\u015flamay\u0131 yumu\u015fatmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olur.\u00a0 Bir t\u00fcr b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00f6netme imkan\u0131d\u0131r bu. Bir \u00e7ok \u00fclkede b\u00f6yle bir imkan\u0131n kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zleniyor.\u00a0 B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00f6netebilmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sahip oldu\u011fumuz bu avantaj\u0131n\u00a0 yava\u015flamay\u0131 yumu\u015fak alanda tutmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan etkili olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>