{"id":1658,"date":"2011-06-17T10:10:00","date_gmt":"2011-06-17T07:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1658"},"modified":"2011-06-17T10:10:07","modified_gmt":"2011-06-17T07:10:07","slug":"hani-piyasalar-bu-sonucu-sevecekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/hani-piyasalar-bu-sonucu-sevecekti\/","title":{"rendered":"Hani Piyasalar Bu Sonucu Sevecekti?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130MKB\u2019nin son 4 g\u00fcnl\u00fck performans\u0131na bakanlar sanki se\u00e7imden istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, yeniden koalisyon d\u00f6nemlerine d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc zanneder. Hadi se\u00e7imlerden \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler anla\u015f\u0131labilir gibiydi: Se\u00e7im riskini almak istemeyenler hisse senetlerini satt\u0131, d\u00f6vizini ald\u0131. Ya se\u00e7imden sonras\u0131na ne demeli. Madem piyasa AKP\u2019nin tek ba\u015f\u0131na h\u00fck\u00fcmet kuracak \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu elde etmesini ama 330\u2019un alt\u0131na kalarak anayasan\u0131n mutabakatla \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyordu, o\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>zaman<\/strong><\/span><\/a> istedi\u011fini ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 halde neden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-438515064\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Cevab\u0131 biraz kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. Cevaba ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce May\u0131s ay\u0131n\u0131n ikinci haftas\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda; \u0130MKB 100 Endeksi 66.500 seviyelerindeyken; de\u011fi\u015fik mecralarda se\u00e7imden sonraki ilk haftan\u0131n kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n (yani bug\u00fcn\u00fcn) 59,750 seviyelerinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmi\u015ftim. \u00d6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse de tahminin ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011funu eklemi\u015ftim. D\u00fcn 59.840 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. E\u011fer bug\u00fcn\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>daha<\/strong><\/span><\/a>a\u015fa\u011f\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmezse iddiay\u0131 \u201ckaybetmi\u015f\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Herkes ya se\u00e7i\u00e7 \u00f6ncesinde ya da se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda bir ralli beklerken benim beklentim bizim piyasalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n se\u00e7imden \u00e7ok i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f ekonomik verilerle hareket edece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Se\u00e7im sonucunun etkisi beklendi\u011fi kadar olmayacakt\u0131. Zira se\u00e7imden kimse \u201cs\u00fcrpriz\u201c beklemiyordu. Yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin nas\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131 bile a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f, bakan toto bile ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Hatta se\u00e7im\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>i\u00e7in<\/strong><\/span><\/a>, EFG \u0130stanbul\u2019dan H\u00fcseyin Kelezo\u011flu\u2019nun deyimiyle \u201cnon event (etkisiz olay)\u201d bir durum bile denebilirdi!<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda temel ekonomik sorunlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n hem se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde hem de sonras\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 daha akla yak\u0131n bir senaryoydu. Bir de \u00fcst\u00fcne Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n art\u0131k zirveye t\u0131rmanan sorunlar\u0131, Haziran sonu itibar\u0131yla Fed\u2019in II. Bedava Para\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>Paketi<\/strong><\/span><\/a>\u2019nin sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor olmas\u0131n\u0131n artan tedirginli\u011fi ve belki de hepsinden \u00f6te her seferinde daha umut k\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 gelen ABD ekonomisine dair veriler k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131 artan oranda olumsuz etkiliyordu.<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>Bu<\/strong><\/span><\/a> olumsuz havada; belki de gere\u011finden fazla konu\u015fulur hale gelen; bizim cari a\u00e7\u0131k meselemiz kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan olumsuz olarak \u201cfiyatlanmaya\u201d ba\u015flad\u0131. Anayasa meselesinin, ekonominin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ece\u011fi endi\u015fesi de hareketi h\u0131zland\u0131ran etmenlerden biri oldu!<\/p>\n<p>Sadece IMKB etkilenmedi tabii ki bu hareketten. Dolar\/TL kuru (bir k\u0131sm\u0131 pariteden kaynaklan\u0131yor olsa da) 1.6275\u2019e kadar y\u00fckselirken, g\u00f6sterge bono bile\u015fik faizi de y\u00fczde 9.18\u2019e kadar y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Devam\u0131 gelecek mi?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Teknik olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda halen daha gidilecek yerler var. Bug\u00fcn dolar\/TL\u2019de 1.6180 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde bir kapan\u0131\u015f olur ise 1.6450-1.6570 seviyeleri resmin i\u00e7ine girecek. Ha keza bono bile\u015fik fazilerinde de 9.25 seviyesi ilk hedef. \u0130MKB i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 2-3 Mart tarihlerinde 58.664 ile 59.428 aras\u0131ndaki \u201cbo\u015flu\u011fa (gap)\u201d kadar devam edebilecek bir hareket yak\u0131n zamanda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3328100416\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ancak son 5 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr gerileyen piyasalar\u0131n da bir s\u00fcre dinlenmesi, toparlanmas\u0131, d\u00fczeltmeler yapmas\u0131 do\u011fald\u0131r. T\u0131pk\u0131 d\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda piyasalar\u0131n toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Ama as\u0131l sorunlar halen da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde ve piyasalar\u0131 olumsuz etkilemeye de devam edecektir. Kald\u0131 ki bu sorunlar\u0131n k\u0131sa zamanda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Ancak yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereke piyasalara \u00f6nceli\u011fin ekonomiye verilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131n\u0131n verilmesi gerekli. \u00dcstelik de bu mesaj\u0131n, cari a\u00e7\u0131k, h\u0131zla artan i\u00e7 talebin kontrol eidlmesine y\u00f6nelik tedbirlerin hepsinin biraraya getirildi\u011fi bir \u201ctedbirler manzumesi\u201d ile birlikte a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6l\u00fck p\u00f6r\u00e7\u00fck, birbirinden kopuk at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00e7ok da fazla bir fayda sa\u011flamas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ali A\u011eAO\u011eLU<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3602175180\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130MKB\u2019nin son 4 g\u00fcnl\u00fck performans\u0131na bakanlar sanki se\u00e7imden istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, yeniden koalisyon d\u00f6nemlerine d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc zanneder. Hadi se\u00e7imlerden \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler anla\u015f\u0131labilir gibiydi: Se\u00e7im riskini almak istemeyenler&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1658","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1658"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1658\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}