{"id":1655,"date":"2011-06-17T10:08:41","date_gmt":"2011-06-17T07:08:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1655"},"modified":"2011-06-17T10:08:48","modified_gmt":"2011-06-17T07:08:48","slug":"twistin-sonuna-geldik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/twistin-sonuna-geldik\/","title":{"rendered":"Twist&#8217;in sonuna geldik"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n banka kaynak maliyetlerini artt\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortadad\u0131r. Yeni bir teorinin zaman\u0131 gelmi\u015ftir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2534713742\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Her dans\u0131n bir sonu vard\u0131r. Bug\u00fcnlerde \u201cMerkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k para politikas\u0131 konusunda ne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorsun?\u201d diye soranlara b\u00f6yle diyorum. Ge\u00e7enlerde Va\u015fington\u2019da uluslararas\u0131 finans \u00e7evrelerinin tam da g\u00f6be\u011finden bir dostum bana \u201cSen twist dans\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yor musun?\u201d dedi. Konu Merkez Bankam\u0131z\u0131n 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k para politikas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesiydi. Ben az\u0131c\u0131k \u201cBuyur?\u201d oldum tabii. Dostum, \u201cTwist, 1960\u2019lardan kalma, modas\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f bir danst\u0131r. Bana kal\u0131rsa sizin Merkez Bankan\u0131z twist yap\u0131yor\u201d dedi. Bir nevi atraksiyon yani. Piyasalar\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtma numaras\u0131. D\u00fcn manal\u0131yd\u0131; ama millet \u201cYahu bunlar yaln\u0131zca twist yap\u0131yor, g\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc boyuyorlar\u201d demeye ba\u015flad\u0131ysa vaziyeti g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmekte fayda vard\u0131r. Gelin bak\u0131n neden \u00f6yledir&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bir dizi \u00f6nlem al\u0131nd\u0131 <\/strong><br \/>\nMerkez Bankas\u0131 Aral\u0131k 2010\u2019dan bug\u00fcne kadar al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir dizi \u00f6nlem a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bir taraftan, d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan getirilip gecelik olarak kendisine emanet edilen paraya \u00f6dedi\u011fi faizi indirdi. Di\u011fer taraftan ise h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesinden dem vurup zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmaya y\u00f6neldi. Bu arada banka, piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k piyasa i\u015flemleri (AP\u0130) vas\u0131tas\u0131yla sabit bir faiz oran\u0131ndan fonlamaya da ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130lk tedbirin amac\u0131, i\u00e7eriye k\u0131sa vadeli, h\u0131zl\u0131 yabanc\u0131 fon giri\u015fini frenlemekti. \u0130kincisinin amac\u0131, bankalar\u0131n artan kaynak maliyeti nedeniyle faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmalar\u0131 ve de daha az kredi a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamakt\u0131. Bunlardan ilki \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131, ikincisi ise \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131. Ama kafalar\u0131 bir kez kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde \u2018kafalar\u0131n kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faydal\u0131 oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yorum. Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerden \u2018yap\u0131c\u0131 belirsizlik\u2019 (constructive ambiguity) kavram\u0131n\u0131 tam da bu ama\u00e7la \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 al\u0131p kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. O g\u00fcn herkesin kafas\u0131nda bir dizi soru i\u015fareti olu\u015fturmak faydal\u0131yd\u0131. Ama art\u0131k \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmacan\u0131n sonuna geldik.<br \/>\nAkla gelmesi gereken ilk soru \u015fudur: Merkez Bankas\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda neden b\u00f6yle bir \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmacaya ihtiya\u00e7 duydu? Gayet basit bir nedenle. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi krizden kontrols\u00fcz bir h\u0131zda \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu. Haziran 2010\u2019da ekonomiyi yava\u015flatmak i\u00e7in al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken tedbirler al\u0131nmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tam tersine, maliye politikas\u0131 gev\u015fek b\u0131rak\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Gev\u015fek kalmaya da devam edecekti. Se\u00e7imler vard\u0131. Yap\u0131sal tedbir ihtimali yoktu. Bankan\u0131n yap\u0131c\u0131 belirsizlik stratejisinin bir anlam\u0131 vard\u0131. Kafalarda soru i\u015faretleri yaratmak, d\u00fcn al\u0131nan bilan\u00e7o pozisyonlar\u0131nda herkesin iki kere d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesini sa\u011flamak faydal\u0131yd\u0131. En az\u0131ndan o vakit ben \u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcm. Zaman\u0131nda \u2018G\u00f6relim bakal\u0131m\u2019 tad\u0131nda laflar gevelemememin nedeni tam da oydu. H\u00e2l\u00e2 da ayn\u0131 noktaday\u0131m. O g\u00fcn dediklerimin yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum. \u00d6yle olsa, yanl\u0131\u015f yapm\u0131\u015f\u0131m derdim. Yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131k biz insanlara \u00f6zg\u00fcd\u00fcr. Yanl\u0131\u015ftan d\u00f6nmek ise erdemdir. Bu ilk noktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 <\/strong><br \/>\nGelelim ikincisine. Merkez Bankas\u0131, zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar vas\u0131tas\u0131yla bankalar\u0131n kaynak maliyetlerini artt\u0131r\u0131yormu\u015f gibi yaparken bir taraftan da AP\u0130 vas\u0131tas\u0131yla bankalar\u0131 sabit bir faiz oran\u0131nda fonlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bir eliyle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6teki eliyle y\u0131kt\u0131. Bir yandan bankalara maliyet y\u00fcklerken \u00f6te taraftan k\u0131sa vadeli sabit faizli bir destekle bankalar\u0131n maliyet y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc hafifletti. Ne oldu? Banka bilan\u00e7olar\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan finansman\u0131n miktar\u0131 her g\u00fcn k\u00fcm\u00fclatif olarak artt\u0131. K\u00fcm\u00fclatif AP\u0130 art\u0131\u015f\u0131, faiz intibak\u0131 engelleniyor demektir. Faiz idari kararla sabitlenince, gecelik finansman oldu, alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k g\u00fcvenilir ve de sabit faizli finansman. \u015eimdilerde tutar\u0131 70 milyar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Eski parayla 70 katrilyon. Mevduat stokunun y\u00fczde 10\u2019u yani. Gecelik kaynakla on y\u0131ll\u0131k kredi a\u00e7mak k\u00f6t\u00fcd\u00fcr. Bankalar\u0131 morfine al\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmakt\u0131r. Biz bu filmi daha \u00f6nce 1990\u2019lar\u0131n sonunda g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Sonra 2000-2001 bankac\u0131l\u0131k krizi olmu\u015ftu. Bu da ikinci tespit.<br \/>\nGeleyim \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fcne. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc geli\u015fme, bankalar\u0131n devlet i\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanma senedi (D\u0130BS) satarak likiditeye ula\u015fmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 oldu. B\u00f6ylece zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k derdi kalmad\u0131. D\u0130BS satan kredi a\u00e7t\u0131. Kredi stoku azalmad\u0131, artt\u0131. Zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yine kozmetik kald\u0131. \u00dcstelik art\u0131k bunu herkes g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<br \/>\nZorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n banka kaynak maliyetlerini artt\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortadad\u0131r. \u015ea\u015f\u0131rtmacay\u0131 tad\u0131nda b\u0131rakmakta ve bir \u015fakan\u0131n \u00fczerine kocaman bir yeni teori in\u015fa etmemekte fayda vard\u0131r. Sistem faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na haz\u0131r hale zaten gelmi\u015ftir. G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm budur.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fcven SAK<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n banka kaynak maliyetlerini artt\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortadad\u0131r. Yeni bir teorinin zaman\u0131 gelmi\u015ftir. Her dans\u0131n bir sonu vard\u0131r. Bug\u00fcnlerde \u201cMerkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k para politikas\u0131 konusunda&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":908,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1655","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1655"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1655\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1655"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1655"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1655"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}