{"id":16530,"date":"2012-06-11T14:28:47","date_gmt":"2012-06-11T12:28:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=16530"},"modified":"2012-06-11T14:28:58","modified_gmt":"2012-06-11T12:28:58","slug":"enflasyon-ve-cari-acik-gundemden-dusuyor-buyume-riski-geliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/enflasyon-ve-cari-acik-gundemden-dusuyor-buyume-riski-geliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski geliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken d\u00fcnya ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve beklentileri h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Avrupa, banka ve kamu borcu krizi ya\u015f\u0131yor, durgunlukla ba\u015f\u0131 dertte. Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n bu durumu finansal, beklenti ve ticaret kanal\u0131yla Amerika ve Asya&#8217;y\u0131 da etkiliyor. ABD ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ivmeyi koruyam\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin motoru durumundaki \u00c7in milli gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 1 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek y\u00fczde 7.5&#8217;e indirdi, ancak son gelen veriler bu tahminin de alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\u00a0Avrupa mal alamay\u0131nca, Amerika h\u0131z kesince \u00c7in nereye nas\u0131l \u00fcretsin? \u00dcretemeyen \u00c7in neden emtia ithal etsin? \u00c7in yava\u015flay\u0131nca etraf\u0131ndaki Asya \u00fclkeleri de h\u0131z kesiyor. Sonu\u00e7ta k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklenenden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kacak gibi. Beklenen ise IMF&#8217;nin en son raporlar\u0131na g\u00f6re ortalama y\u00fczde 2.9. Ama ba\u015fta \u00c7in ve Hindistan gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerin, ABD ve Almanya gibi geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin h\u0131z kesmesi ile bu oran\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nma ihtimali art\u0131yor.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2512382654\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>B\u00dcY\u00dcMEDE D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e:<\/strong>\u00a0D\u00fc\u015fen k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme emtialara talebi azalt\u0131yor. Emtia talebi azal\u0131nca ve \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in&#8217;in bu talebi azal\u0131nca uzak yol ta\u015f\u0131malar\u0131 veya navlunlar geriliyor. \u015eirketlerin hisse senetleri de\u011fer kaybediyor.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Yukar\u0131da \u00fc\u00e7 grafik var. 19 emtiay\u0131 temsil eden CRB Endeksi 7 ayl\u0131k zamanda y\u00fczde 28 de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015f. Ba\u015fta petrol fiyatlar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere emtia fiyatlar\u0131 geriliyor.<br \/>\n\u25a0 B\u00fcy\u00fck kuru y\u00fck gemilerinin navlunlar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tan Baltic Dry Endeksi, may\u0131s ortas\u0131na kadar k\u00fcresel ekonomideki yava\u015flamay\u0131 pek teyit etmiyordu. Emtia endeksi ile bir paralellik arz etmiyordu. Ger\u00e7i d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne \u00f6nce ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ama sonra da toparlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Toparlanmay\u0131 yine keskin say\u0131lacak bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f izleyince hem emtialar hem de navlunlar ayn\u0131 \u015feyi i\u015faret etti: K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmede d\u00fc\u015fmeyi. Baltic Dry Endeksi yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 ayl\u0131k zamanda y\u00fczde 60 geriledi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn bu kadar keskin olmas\u0131nda ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde gemi arz\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkili oldu\u011fu tahminleri yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/ht-yazarlar\/abdurrahman-yildirim\/1160721-enflasyon-ve-cari-acik-gundemden-dusuyor-buyume-riski-geliyor\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken d\u00fcnya ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve beklentileri h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Avrupa, banka ve kamu borcu krizi ya\u015f\u0131yor, durgunlukla ba\u015f\u0131 dertte. Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n bu durumu finansal,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":994,"featured_media":12631,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16530","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/994"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16530"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16530\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16530"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16530"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16530"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}