{"id":1652,"date":"2011-06-17T10:03:02","date_gmt":"2011-06-17T07:03:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1652"},"modified":"2011-06-17T10:03:10","modified_gmt":"2011-06-17T07:03:10","slug":"dunyanin-ahvali","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dunyanin-ahvali\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00fcnyan\u0131n Ahvali"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Se\u00e7im havas\u0131 sona erdi. Ola\u011fan hayat\u0131m\u0131za d\u00f6nd\u00fck. Ola\u011fandan kast\u0131m genelde izledi\u011fimiz olay ve olgular\u0131 izlemek. Se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecinde ister istemez siyaset \u00f6nplana \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u015eimdi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olartak ekonomiye d\u00f6n\u00fcyoruz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1298406136\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde bir \u015feylerin pek de iyi gitmedi\u011fine dair bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce var. Y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndaki iyimserlikten ihtiyatl\u0131 bir karamsarl\u0131\u011fa do\u011fru d\u00f6n\u00fcyoruz gibi bir izlenim var. Asl\u0131nda bu yeni y\u00f6nelimde pek de yanl\u0131z say\u0131lmay\u0131z.\u00a0 \u00d6teki\u00a0 \u00fclkelerde de sorunlar\u0131n ba\u015fg\u00f6sterdi\u011fi ve performans kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6rece daha olumlu olan beklentiler yava\u015f da olsa y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi, bir karamsarl\u0131k ikliminin yay\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkati \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131 biz se\u00e7imle ha\u015f\u0131r ne\u015fir olurken d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ahvalinin de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi g\u00f6zleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>2011 ba\u015f\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin k\u00fcresel krizden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve y\u0131l i\u00e7inde artan b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bu s\u00fcrecin sorunsuz bi\u00e7imde tamamlanaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Son bir ka\u00e7 haftada bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f eskisi kadar g\u00fcvenle seslendirilmiyor. Zira d\u00fcnyan\u0131n hemen b\u00fct\u00fcn b\u00f6lgelerinde \u00fclkeler b\u00fcy\u00fcme-enflasyon ikilemine tak\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu da b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde g\u00f6rece daha \u00f6nemli konumda olan \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015fl\u0131yor olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli. Ama b\u00fcy\u00fckler aras\u0131nda bir ayr\u0131m yapmak gerekiyor. Son d\u00f6nemde d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin motoru olarak alg\u0131lanan \u00c7in&#8217;de y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposu tam anlam\u0131yla enflasyona kurban olmu\u015f durumda. Burada h\u0131zlanmaya ba\u015flayan enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikalar\u0131n devreye sokulmu\u015f olmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00c7in&#8217;in yava\u015flamas\u0131 ilk ad\u0131mda yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgeyi, Do\u011fu Asya&#8217;y\u0131 yava\u015flat\u0131yor. Bunun d\u00fcnyaya yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnyan\u0131n esas motorunun ABD oldu\u011fu malum. Ahval burada da de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Ama bi\u00e7imi farkl\u0131. ABD&#8217;de hen\u00fcz \u00e7ok belirgin bir enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 yok. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 politikalara d\u00f6nmekte acele edilmiyor. Hatta tersine ABD, \u00f6zellikle de para otoritesi FED,\u00a0 gev\u015fek politikalar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte israr ediyor. Buna ra\u011fmen b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposu beklenenden yava\u015f. Son veriler bu yava\u015flaman\u0131n devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Kimi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flere g\u00f6re Japonya d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan \u00fclkelerde yava\u015flama Haziran ay\u0131nda dip yapt\u0131ktan sonra tekrar h\u0131zlanacak. Ahvale bak\u0131l\u0131rsa bu olduk\u00e7a iyimser bir beklenti. Sanki ezelden beri durgunluk i\u00e7inde olan Japon ekonomisi k\u00fcresel krizden g\u00f6rece d\u00fczg\u00fcn bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yaparken deprem afetine yakaland\u0131. Depremin ekonomik etkilerinin ilk beklentilerin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ti\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130yimser beklentiler Japonya&#8217;da \u00fcretimin\u00a0 Ekim ay\u0131ndan sonra deprem \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00fczeye d\u00f6nece\u011fini tahmin ediyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1352755175\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin \u00c7in d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan \u00fcyelerinde de enflasyonist e\u011filimlerin h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flat\u0131yor. Latin Amerika&#8217;n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomileri bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131dan muzdarip. Enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler ekonomilerdeki canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fczeyin alt\u0131na \u00e7ekiyor. Orta Do\u011fu-Kuzey Afrika ekseninde ya\u015fananlar malum. Bu \u00fclkelerin bir s\u00fcre daha devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak, bu b\u00f6lgedeki olaylar\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen s\u00fcr\u00fcyor olmas\u0131 genel bir risk unsuru olarak \u00f6teki \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinde olumsuz yans\u0131malar yaratmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda ahval de\u011fi\u015fiyor derken g\u00f6rece iyi bir durumdan o kadar da iyi olmayan bir duruma kay\u0131\u015f\u0131 kastediyorum. Ama her yerde b\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmiyor bu. \u00d6rne\u011fin, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin en problemli alan\u0131 olan Avrupa Birli\u011finde ahvalin de\u011fi\u015fip de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi olduk\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131. Zira, k\u00fcresel krizden d\u00fczg\u00fcn bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmay\u0131 beceremeyen AB hala benzer sorunlarla bo\u011fu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Birli\u011fin sorunu ikili. Temel sorun kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lanma dinami\u011fi meselesi. Bunun yan\u0131s\u0131ra bu soruna bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00e7are bulunamamas\u0131 belki de AB&#8217;nin daha temelli bir sorununa i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130stisnalar olmakla birlikte \u00fcye \u00fclkelerin \u00e7o\u011funda bu sorun var. Bu sorun s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e AB&#8217;nin \u00f6teki sorunlar\u0131na, b\u00fcy\u00fcme enflasyon vs ile ilgilenmek hep ikinci planda kal\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3415308302\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00fcnyada ahval de\u011fi\u015firken Avrupa&#8217;da hi\u00e7 bir \u015fey de\u011fi\u015fmiyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Taner BERKSOY<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Se\u00e7im havas\u0131 sona erdi. Ola\u011fan hayat\u0131m\u0131za d\u00f6nd\u00fck. Ola\u011fandan kast\u0131m genelde izledi\u011fimiz olay ve olgular\u0131 izlemek. Se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecinde ister istemez siyaset \u00f6nplana \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u015eimdi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olartak&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1652","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1652"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1652\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1652"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1652"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1652"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}