{"id":16511,"date":"2012-06-11T08:46:37","date_gmt":"2012-06-11T06:46:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=16511"},"modified":"2012-06-11T08:46:50","modified_gmt":"2012-06-11T06:46:50","slug":"enflasyon-beklentileri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/enflasyon-beklentileri\/","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyon Beklentileri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel piyasalarda iyimserlik k\u0131sa s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Gergin ortamda mutlaka moral bozan bir haber geliyor. Art\u0131k al\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Borsalar, euro ve petrol beraber d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Y\u00fcksek volatilite daha uzun s\u00fcre devam edece\u011fe benzer.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-422535630\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Wall Street Journal\u2019da \u00e7\u0131kan bir haberin ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle: \u201cT\u00fcrkiye, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ni acil kurtarma eylemi i\u00e7in uyard\u0131.\u201d Ne g\u00fcnlere geldik! Eskiden T\u00fcrkiye uyar\u0131l\u0131rd\u0131. Nitekim d\u00fcn d\u00f6viz sepeti 2.05 TL\u2019ye geriledi.<\/p>\n<p>Sanayi \u00fcretimi Nisan verileri \u201cho\u015f s\u00fcrpriz\u201d yapt\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re hem toplam hem imalat sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 1.8 artt\u0131. Piyasa y\u00fczde 0.3 bekliyordu. Takvim ve mevsim etkisi temizlenince Mart\u2019a g\u00f6re de ikisi de y\u00fckseldi. Yumu\u015fak ini\u015f i\u00e7in \u00e7ok olumlu haberdir.<\/p>\n<p>Nisan d\u0131\u015f ticaret miktar endeksleri de a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re ihracatta y\u00fczde 13 art\u0131\u015f, ithalatta y\u00fczde 6 azal\u0131\u015f var. Takvim ve mevsim etkisi temizlenince Mart\u2019a g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fim de ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. D\u0131\u015f dengede d\u00fczelmenin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Beklenti ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en yaz\u0131da Ba\u015fkan Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n SETA panelinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunumdan s\u00f6z ettim. Yeni para politikas\u0131 \u00f6zetlemek i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 ara\u00e7, \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterge ve iki ama\u00e7 tan\u0131mlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. G\u00f6stergelerden birinin (d\u00f6viz kuru) 2010 sonras\u0131nda seyrine bakt\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kincisini (enflasyon beklentileri) bug\u00fcn ele al\u0131yorum. Ar\u015fivi kontrol ettim. Zaten bir s\u00fcredir ihmal etmi\u015fim. Para politikas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda s\u0131k s\u00f6z\u00fc edilen g\u00f6stergedir. Anlam\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7makta yarar g\u00f6rd\u00fcm.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyon beklentilerini Merkez Bankas\u0131 ayda iki kez yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anketle topluyor. Gelecek d\u00f6nemler i\u00e7in enflasyon, faiz, kur, d\u0131\u015f denge ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri soruluyor. Finans kesimi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ortalama 80 civar\u0131nda kat\u0131l\u0131m oluyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1510988910\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Beklentiler tutuyor mu? Durumu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik \u00f6zetliyor. 2009 sonras\u0131n\u0131 ald\u0131m. \u00c7ok dalgalanan \u00e7izgi fiili y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyonudur. Az dalgalanan \u00e7izgi ise oniki ay \u00f6nce beklenen y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyondur. \u00d6rnek: May\u0131s 2011\u2019de beklenen May\u0131s 2012 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonu y\u00fczde 6.8\u2019di.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/haber.gazetevatan.com\/Haber\/456695\/1\/Gundem\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel piyasalarda iyimserlik k\u0131sa s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Gergin ortamda mutlaka moral bozan bir haber geliyor. Art\u0131k al\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Borsalar, euro ve petrol beraber d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Y\u00fcksek volatilite daha uzun&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16511"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16511\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}