{"id":15921,"date":"2012-05-27T16:30:15","date_gmt":"2012-05-27T14:30:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=15921"},"modified":"2020-06-01T09:54:06","modified_gmt":"2020-06-01T06:54:06","slug":"husmen-dayi-yatirimciligi-ogretiyor-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/husmen-dayi-yatirimciligi-ogretiyor-1\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00fcsmen Day\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00d6\u011fretiyor &#8211; 1"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Daha \u00f6nce sizlere &#8220;Hayat\u0131n Basit Bir Denklem&#8221; ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir yaz\u0131 yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Bu yaz\u0131y\u0131 daha sonra i\u015flerimin yo\u011funlu\u011fu nedeniyle devam ettiremi\u015ftim ama yaz\u0131 dizisini daha \u00e7ok okuyucuya ula\u015fmak \u00fczere Para dergisine aktard\u0131m. Buradaki okuyucular\u0131m\u0131 da mahrum etmemek ad\u0131na para dergisindeki yaz\u0131 dizisini buraya aktard\u0131m. \u00a0Fakat a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki yaz\u0131 bir hafta gecikmeyle gidiyor. Yani bu pazar dergide yay\u0131nlanan yaz\u0131 burada yok. Gelecek pazartesi eklenecektir. Telif haklar\u0131 nedeniyle para dergisinde yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m yaz\u0131y\u0131 ayn\u0131 hafta burada yay\u0131nlayam\u0131yorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1875162259\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">****<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>H\u00fcsmen Day\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00d6\u011fretiyor &#8211; 1<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Daha \u00f6nce de sizlere duyurdu\u011fum \u00fczere, bilgilendirici ve bilgi d\u00fczeyinizi art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 yaz\u0131lar\u0131n daha faydal\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015ftim. Bug\u00fcnden itibaren ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi bir kocaman bir &#8220;T&#8221; harfi \u00e7iziniz. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki gibi;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/T-harfi.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"T harfi\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/T-harfi.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"509\" height=\"389\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Bunun sol taraf\u0131na sahip oldu\u011funuz varl\u0131klar\u0131 yaz\u0131n\u0131z. \u00d6rne\u011fin araban\u0131z, eviniz, televizyonunuz, cep telefonunuz, ayakkab\u0131n\u0131z, \u00e7orab\u0131n\u0131z vs. vs&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Sonra da bu varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 acaba \u015fu an satmaya kalksan\u0131z ka\u00e7 TL ederdi? Bunu da yan\u0131na yaz\u0131n\u0131z. Varsayal\u0131m ki varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n toplam\u0131 200.000 Tl olsun.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/T-harfi-varliklar-2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"T harfi-varliklar-2\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/T-harfi-varliklar-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"509\" height=\"389\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi de T harfinin sol taraf\u0131na geri \u00f6demekle y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fc oldu\u011funuz bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 yaz\u0131n\u0131z. \u00d6rne\u011fin evinizi banka kredisi ile alm\u0131\u015fsan\u0131z ve 40 bin TL borcunuz varsa sol tarafa yazacaks\u0131n\u0131z. Ya da \u00f6deyece\u011finiz telefon faturas\u0131, elektrik, su, okul paras\u0131 vs&#8230; Bunun toplam\u0131n\u0131n da 60.000 Tl oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2426688392\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/T-harfi-yukumluluk.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"T harfi-yukumluluk\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/T-harfi-yukumluluk.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"509\" height=\"389\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Demek ki VARLIKLARINIZ = 200.000 TL \u00a0(Fakat dikkat ediniz&#8230; varl\u0131klar\u0131 bug\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa fiyat\u0131 ile belirledik. Yani satsak ka\u00e7 para eder sorusunu sorarak belirledik. Bunlar\u0131 al\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131m\u0131zla g\u00f6stermedik. \u00d6rne\u011fin aya\u011f\u0131m\u0131zdaki \u00e7orap varl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zd\u0131r ama satsak kimse almaz, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bunun de\u011feri s\u0131f\u0131rd\u0131r.)<\/p>\n<p>BOR\u00c7LARINIZ = 60.000 TL olarak belirlendi.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi de TOPLAM VARLIKLARINIZDAN, BOR\u00c7LARINIZI \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131n. YAN\u0130<\/p>\n<p>TOPLAM VARLIKLAR (200.000 TL) &#8211; TOPLAM BOR\u00c7LAR (60.000 TL) \u00a0=\u00a0<strong>140.000 TL\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2106803423\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte buldu\u011fumuz bu 140.000 TL say\u0131s\u0131 bizim \u00d6ZVARLI\u011eIMIZDIR. \u00a0Bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle toplam varl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131zdan bor\u00e7lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131nca bize ne kal\u0131yorsa bu bizim \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/T-harfi-ozvarlik.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"T harfi-ozvarlik\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/T-harfi-ozvarlik.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"509\" height=\"389\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Acaba \u015fimdi gidip bankadan 300 bin TL kredi \u00e7ekme imkan\u0131m\u0131z olsa ve 300 bin TL de\u011ferinde bir ev alsak Toplam varl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ne olur?<\/p>\n<p>Evet do\u011fru cevap &#8220;500.000 TL &#8221; \u015feklindeydi.<\/p>\n<p>Peki borcumuz ne olur?<\/p>\n<p>Evet do\u011fru Cevap &#8220;360.000 TL &#8221; \u015feklinde olacak. G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz \u00fczere toplam varl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z artabiliyor ama \u00d6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z art\u0131yor mu?<\/p>\n<p>HAYIR&#8230; \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc &#8212;&#8212;&gt; 500.000 &#8211; 360.000 = 140.000 TL oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Demek ki, bir ki\u015finin ya da \u015firketin varl\u0131klar\u0131 artabilir ama bu ki\u015finin ya da bu bilan\u00e7o bir \u015firkete aitse bu \u00a0\u015firketin i\u00e7meye ayran\u0131 olmayabilir. Yani varl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n KAYNA\u011eI sadece \u00a0BOR\u00c7 olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Peki \u00d6zvarl\u0131k nas\u0131l aratacak?<\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki bilan\u00e7onun \u00a0H\u00fcsmen day\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7osu oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. \u00a0E\u011fer H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 her ay 5000 TL kazan\u0131p bunun 1500 TL&#8217;sini tasarruf ederse bir y\u0131lda 1500*12=18.000 TL tasarruf etmi\u015f olur ve 1 y\u0131l sonra H\u00fcsmen day\u0131n\u0131n bankadaki paras\u0131 13.000 TL&#8217;den 31.000 TL&#8217;ye \u00e7\u0131kar. H\u00fcsmen day\u0131n\u0131n borcunun artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayal\u0131m. Bu durumda 1 y\u0131l sonra \u00d6ZVARLIKLARI 18.000 TL Artacakt\u0131r ve 158.000 TL olacakt\u0131r. E\u011fer bu arada tasarruflar\u0131na da faiz veya Kat\u0131l\u0131m hesab\u0131ndan k\u00e2r pay\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f olsa ve 1000 TL&#8217;de oradan gelse, \u00d6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 159.000 TL olur.<\/p>\n<p>H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 \u00f6rne\u011finde, \u00a0her ay harcamalar\u0131ndan sonra artt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 paraya\u00a0<strong>TASARRUF<\/strong>\u00a0diyoruz. \u015eirketlerde ise buna\u00a0<strong>K\u00c2R<\/strong>\u00a0diyoruz. Bu y\u00fczden \u015firketlerde\u00a0<strong>\u00d6ZVARLI\u011eI ARTIRAN TEK UNSUR K\u00c2R<\/strong>&#8216;d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>UNUTMAYINIZ<\/strong>:&#8230;.\u00a0<strong>Asl\u0131nda fark\u0131nda de\u011filsiniz ama h<strong>epiniz\u00a0<\/strong>kendi bilan\u00e7onuzda b\u00fct\u00fcn hayat\u0131n\u0131z boyunca \u00a0\u00d6ZVARLI\u011eINIZI art\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorsunuz&#8230;\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu amaca ula\u015fabilmek i\u00e7in okuyoruz. Ticaret yap\u0131yoruz. Sanat\u00e7\u0131 oluyoruz ya da futbolcu oluyoruz&#8230; vs.. vs&#8230; \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ne kadar iyi bir e\u011fitim al\u0131rsak o kadar y\u00fcksek maa\u015f ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z&#8230; ya da sanat\u00e7\u0131 olursak b\u00fcy\u00fck paralar kazanaca\u011f\u0131z.. \u00d6ZVARLI\u011eIMIZ daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artacak&#8230; HErkesin tek ideali var&#8230; Bu i\u011freti d\u00fcnyada \u00d6ZVARLI\u011eIMIZI olabildi\u011fince h\u0131zla art\u0131rmak. \u00a0Elbette ki eroin satarak \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131rabilirsiniz. Ama R\u0130SK \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek&#8230; Etik ve ahlaki de\u011ferleri bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131rsak, \u00a0uyu\u015fturucu satarak H\u0131zla art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z \u00f6zvarl\u0131k bir polis operasyonuyla s\u0131f\u0131ra inebilir. \u0130\u015fte \u00a0bu R\u0130SK \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u00f6zvarl\u0131k h\u0131zl\u0131 artar. \u00a0 Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 Murtaza a\u011fbi, \u00a0her ay tasarruf etti\u011fi 1500 TL&#8217;yi bankaya yat\u0131rmak yerine borsaya da yat\u0131rabilir ve \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131n\u0131 isteyebilirdi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hisse sendi piyasas\u0131 Bankadaki mevduat hesab\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha risklidir. \u00a0E\u011fer Murtaza abi de h\u0131rsa kap\u0131l\u0131p paras\u0131n\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131 ve bu sayede \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in BORSAYA G\u0130RERSE ne olur H\u00fcsmen day\u0131??<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \u0130yi halt eder&#8230;\u00a0\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00d6ZVARLIK ARTI\u015eIYLA, HIRS aras\u0131nda ters bir orant\u0131 vard\u0131r. Bu, y\u00fcce Allah&#8217;\u0131n beynimize koydu\u011fu bir software sayesinde b\u00f6yle olmaktad\u0131r. \u00a0\u00d6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n ne kadar \u00e7abuk ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde artmas\u0131n\u0131 istiyor ve acele ediyorsan\u0131z&#8230;. Sonra da bu yolda bir karar al\u0131yor ve bu KARARDAN ASLA TEREDD\u00dcT ETM\u0130YORSANIZ ve Y\u00dcZDE Y\u00dcZ EM\u0130NSEN\u0130Z, biliniz ki \u00d6ZVARLI\u011eINIZ HIZLA ER\u0130YECEKT\u0130R&#8230;. Hayat bunun \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00f6rne\u011fi ile doludur. Geriye do\u011fru gidin ve ge\u00e7mi\u015fi hat\u0131rlay\u0131n&#8230; Hani o t\u00fcyo gelmi\u015fti&#8230; hani \u00f6nce \u00e7ok teredd\u00fct etmi\u015ftiniz&#8230; sonra da s\u00f6ylene ka\u011f\u0131d\u0131 alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131n\u0131z da ka\u011f\u0131t tavan kapatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve o gece sevin\u00e7ten uyuyamam\u0131\u015f ve sabah\u0131 zor etmi\u015ftiniz&#8230; Ne g\u00fczel hayaller kurup ne kadar mutlu bir gece ge\u00e7irmi\u015ftiniz&#8230; \u00a0Sonunu hat\u0131rlamak istemiyorsunuz de\u011fil mi? \u00a0\u0130kinci tavanda sat\u0131p paray\u0131 cebinize koydu\u011funuzda mutluydunuz ama ka\u011f\u0131t hala y\u00fckselmeye devam ettik\u00e7e dayanamay\u0131p yeniden ald\u0131n\u0131z ve SONUN BA\u015eLANGICI OLMADI MI?<\/p>\n<p>NEyse biz yine bilan\u00e7oya d\u00f6nelim&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>T tablosundaki \u00a0bor\u00e7lar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 1 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde mutlaka \u00a0\u00f6deyeceksiniz. Bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 da belki 1 y\u0131ldan daha uzun s\u00fcrede \u00f6deyeceksiniz. \u00d6rne\u011fin evinizin 40 bin TL borcu var ama e\u011fer 10 bin TL&#8217;si 1 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u00f6denecekse ve 30 bin TL&#8217;si 1 y\u0131ldan daha uzun vadede \u00f6denecekse 30 bin TL&#8217;lik k\u0131sm\u0131<strong>\u00a0UZUN VADEL\u0130 BOR\u00c7<\/strong>\u00a0olurken di\u011fer bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131z da\u00a0<strong>KISA VADEL\u0130 BOR\u00c7<\/strong>\u00a0oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>VARLIKLARINIZIN bir k\u0131sm\u0131 parad\u0131r ya da hemen \u00a0paraya \u00e7evrilebilecek varl\u0131kt\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin bankada mevduat\u0131n\u0131z varsa ve 1 ayl\u0131k mevduat ise, bunu 1 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde paraya \u00e7evirebilirsiniz. ya da bir alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z varsa ve arkada\u015f\u0131n\u0131zdan bu alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 3 ay sonra alacaksan\u0131z 1 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde paraya \u00e7evrilebilecek varl\u0131kt\u0131r. Baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ise bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde paraya \u00e7evirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorsunuz ya da \u00e7evirmeniz imkans\u0131z olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin Evinizi 1 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde paraya \u00e7evirmeyi (satmay\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorsan\u0131z buna\u00a0<strong>DURAN VARLIK<\/strong>\u00a0denir. E\u011fer bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde paraya \u00e7evrilebilecek nitelikteyse\u00a0<strong>D\u00d6NEN VARLIK<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0ad\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bir ki\u015fi ya da \u015firket bilan\u00e7osu farkl\u0131 de\u011fildir. \u00c7ok ama \u00e7ok basittir. Yani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki gibidir ve gerisi teferruatt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bir sonraki yaz\u0131da \u00e7ooook ilgin\u00e7 noktalar\u0131 fark edeceksiniz&#8230; H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 &#8220;herkesi ger\u00e7ek anlamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131m&#8221; diyor.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/T-harfi-tablo.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"T harfi-tablo\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/T-harfi-tablo.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"436\" height=\"359\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Demek ki bu haftan\u0131n temel mesaj\u0131 \u015fudur.\u00a0 Bir bilan\u00e7odaki en \u00f6nemli kalem \u00d6zvarl\u0131klard\u0131r. Herkes \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak ister. \u015eirketler de buna \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. \u00d6ZVARLIKLARI ARTIRAN TEK UNSUR K\u00c2R\u2019DIR. \u00a0H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 \u015fimdi \u015fu soruyu soruyor; &#8220;\u0130ki \u015firket olsun ve ikisinin de \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 100 TL olsun.\u00a0 Acaba hangi \u015firkete ortak olurdunuz?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">****<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Para Dergisi 22 Nisan 2012 &#8211; <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>H\u00fcsmen \u00a0Day\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00d6\u011fretiyor &#8211; 2<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en haftaki yaz\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 H\u00fcsmen day\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu sorusuyla \u00a0bitirmi\u015ftik;<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u00d6ZVARLIKLARI ARTIRAN TEK UNSUR K\u00c2R\u2019DIR. \u015eimdi \u015fu soruyu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn. \u0130ki \u015firket olsun ve ikisinin de \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 100 TL olsun.\u00a0 Acaba hangi \u015firkete ortak olurdunuz?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Tabi ki bu iki \u015firketten hangisi\u00a0 \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131racaksa o \u015firkete ortak olmak isterdik. E\u011fer A \u015firketi 100 TL olan \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 120 TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, B \u015firketi \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 130 TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rsa, bu \u015firketin bir orta\u011f\u0131 olarak benim \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131m da artm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r.\u00a0 Bu \u00f6rnekte \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 130 TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karacak olan B \u015firketine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak ak\u0131ll\u0131cad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00f6rnekte her iki \u015firketin de \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta 100 TL olarak ald\u0131k. Varsayal\u0131m ki; A \u015firketinin \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta 300 TL iken bir y\u0131l sonra 360 TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olsun.\u00a0 B \u015firketinin \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da 2500 TL iken bir y\u0131l sonra 2750 TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olsun.<\/p>\n<p>Hangi \u015firkete ortak olmak daha karl\u0131 olurdu?<\/p>\n<p>Tabi ki A \u015firketine ortak olmak daha anlaml\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc A \u015firketi, \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 20 art\u0131r\u0131rken (60\/300=0.20), B \u015firketi \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 10 art\u0131rabilmi\u015ftir (250\/2500=0.10).<\/p>\n<p>Diyelim ki H\u00fcsmen day\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunun VARLIKLAR b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde 100 TL de\u011ferinde (\u015firketin \u00f6zvarl\u0131k de\u011ferlemesine\u00a0 g\u00f6re) A \u015firketi hisseleri vard\u0131. Bir y\u0131l sonra H\u00fcsmen day\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131klar\u0131nda 20 TL art\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Bilan\u00e7osunun VARLIKLAR (AKT\u0130F) k\u0131sm\u0131nda 20 TL art\u0131\u015f olunca, sa\u011f tarafta da ayn\u0131 de\u011ferde art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 gerekir.\u00a0 \u0130\u015fte bu varl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131, bilan\u00e7onun sa\u011f taraf\u0131na (PAS\u0130F k\u0131sm\u0131nda) \u00d6zvarl\u0131k kaleminin alt\u0131ndaki K\u00c2R kaleminde g\u00f6sterilecek ve \u00d6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00a020 TL artm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda, yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lacak \u015firket hissesini bulabilmek i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli soru \u015fu oluyor: \u201c\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde (veya iki, \u00fc\u00e7, be\u015f ya da on y\u0131l i\u00e7inde) hangi \u015firket \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 en \u00e7ok art\u0131racakt\u0131r?\u201d Bu a\u015famadan sonra H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 bize yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6\u011fretecek. H\u00fcsmen day\u0131y\u0131 k\u0131saca size tan\u0131tay\u0131m. Kendisi\u00a0 \u015fu an 65 ya\u015flar\u0131nda \u00e7ok g\u00fcler y\u00fczl\u00fc, babacan bir duayen\u2026 \u00d6mr\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla ge\u00e7mi\u015f\u2026 \u00d6nce bankac\u0131 olarak i\u015fe ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ama kader O\u2019nu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerde en \u00fcst d\u00fczeyde y\u00f6neticiliklere ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f\u2026 \u015eirketler i\u00e7in uzun vadeli vizyonlar belirlemi\u015f\u2026 El att\u0131\u011f\u0131 her \u015firketin de\u011feri y\u0131llar i\u00e7inde katlan\u0131p gitmi\u015f\u2026 Sonra emekli olmu\u015f\u2026 \u015eu an \u00e7ok \u015firin bir k\u0131y\u0131 kasabas\u0131nda hayat\u0131na devam ettiriyor\u2026 S\u0131radan ama \u00e7ok mutlu\u00a0 bir hayat ya\u015f\u0131yor\u2026 Yaz aylar\u0131nda o k\u0131y\u0131 kabas\u0131na tatile gelen fon y\u00f6neticileri, para y\u00f6neticileri, \u015firket y\u00f6neticileri kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131yor ve mutlaka sohbet etmek, derin tecr\u00fcbelerinden faydalanmak\u00a0 istiyorlar\u2026 Onlar\u0131 k\u0131rm\u0131yor, deniz k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131nda, bir \u00e7arda\u011f\u0131n alt\u0131nda, sala\u015f bir\u00a0 restoranda ak\u015famlar\u0131\u00a0 H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 konu\u015fuyor,\u00a0 herkes sessizce dinliyor ve \u00e7ok sevdikleri bu insana \u201cH\u00fcsmen day\u0131\u201d diyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 ne diyorsun? Bu soruya cevap vermek kolay m\u0131? Sen nas\u0131l cevap verirdin?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Evlat\u2026 herkes bu soruya cevap verebilseydi \u00e7ok zengin olurdu. Sen \u015fimdi bana en zor soruyu sordun.\u00a0 Ama bu soruya \u00f6nce sen cevap ver. Elimizde \u00fc\u00e7 \u015firket olsun ve bunlar da A, B ve C \u015firketleri olsun\u2026 \u0130nceleme yapmaya ilk \u00f6nce nerden ba\u015flard\u0131n?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Herhalde \u00fc\u00e7 \u015firketin de \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bulurdum. Yani KAR\/\u00d6ZVARLIK form\u00fcl\u00fcyle en y\u00fcksek \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na (\u00d6VK) sahip \u015firketi bulurdum. E\u011fer A\u2019n\u0131n \u00d6VK\u2019s\u0131 y\u00fczde 15, B\u2019nin ki y\u00fczde 30 ve C\u2019nin ki y\u00fczde 20 ise ben B \u015firketinin hisselerini al\u0131rd\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Yanl\u0131\u015f cevap evlat\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Neden?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 B \u015firketinin ge\u00e7mi\u015f\u00a0 bir y\u0131lda elde etti\u011fi \u00d6VK oran\u0131 di\u011fer \u015firketlerden y\u00fcksek olabilir ama, gelecek y\u0131l yine hepsinden y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 nereden biliyorsun?\u00a0 Gelecek y\u0131l B \u015firketinin \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya eksi y\u00fczde 20 olursa\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Neden \u00f6yle olsun day\u0131? \u015eaka m\u0131 yap\u0131yorsun O kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck fark olur mu?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Evet evlat \u00e7oooook b\u00fcy\u00fck farklar olabilir. Bunlar\u0131 daha sonra sana g\u00f6sterece\u011fim ama istersen \u00f6nce bu soruya do\u011fru d\u00fcr\u00fcst bir cevap bulal\u0131m<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 O zaman ben de bu \u00fc\u00e7 \u015firketin ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llardaki \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamalar\u0131na bakard\u0131m\u2026 Hangisi en y\u00fcksekse o \u015firketi se\u00e7erdim\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ehh.. bu olabilir ama yine eksik cevap\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Neden eksik?<\/p>\n<p>Gelecek hafta devam edece\u011fiz\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>****<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Para Dergisi &#8211; 29 Nisan 2012 <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>H\u00fcsmen Day\u0131 Borsada Yat\u0131r\u0131m Yapmay\u0131 \u00d6\u011fretiyor -3<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir yerde kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k.\u00a0 \u0130stersen tekrar \u00f6zetleyeyim. E\u011fer uzun vadede borsada kazanmak istiyorsak \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 en \u00e7ok art\u0131racak olan \u015firketi bulmam\u0131z gerekiyordu.\u00a0 Sen \u015fu soruyu sormu\u015ftun; \u201cElimizde \u00fc\u00e7 \u015firket olsun ve bunlar da A, B ve C \u015firketleri olsun\u2026 \u0130nceleme yapmaya ilk \u00f6nce nerden ba\u015flard\u0131n?\u201d Ben de \u015fu cevab\u0131 vermi\u015ftim; \u201cHerhalde \u00fc\u00e7 \u015firketin de \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bulurdum. Yani KAR\/\u00d6ZVARLIK form\u00fcl\u00fcyle en y\u00fcksek \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na (\u00d6VK) sahip \u015firketi bulurdum. E\u011fer A\u2019n\u0131n\u00a0 \u00d6VK\u2019s\u0131 y\u00fczde 15, B\u2019nin ki y\u00fczde 30 ve C\u2019nin ki y\u00fczde 20 ise ben B \u015firketinin hisselerini al\u0131rd\u0131m.\u201d\u00a0 Demi\u015ftim.\u00a0 Bunun \u00fczerine sen bana\u00a0 \u201cYanl\u0131\u015f cevap evlat\u2026\u201d demi\u015ftin.\u00a0 Bu cevap neden yanl\u0131\u015f?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc sen bir \u015firketin <strong>\u015fu anki<\/strong> \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na bak\u0131yorsun. Bizi ilgilendiren \u015fey ise gelecekteki \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bir \u015firket bu sene \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015f olabilir ve bu sene \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ciddi boyutta art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olabilir. Ama bu durum gelecekte de ayn\u0131 oranda art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 garanti etmez. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00a0bu bilgi zaten fiyat\u0131n i\u00e7ine girer ve \u015firketin o durumu fiyatlara yans\u0131r.\u00a0 \u00d6nemli olan konu \u015firketin bundan sonraki d\u00f6nemde ne yapaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Peki her \u015firketin \u00f6rne\u011fin ge\u00e7mi\u015f be\u015f on y\u0131ldaki \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na bak\u0131p ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 alsak ve bu konuda ortalamas\u0131 en y\u00fcksek \u015firketi se\u00e7sek nas\u0131l olur?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Do\u011fru g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olsa da bu t\u00fcr bir hisse se\u00e7me stratejisi de eksiktir. Yani son be\u015f on y\u0131lda ortalama olarak en y\u00fcksek \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na sahip olan \u015firketi se\u00e7mek yeterli olmaz.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Neden H\u00fcsmen day\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u015eimdi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloyu birlikte inceleyelim. Bu tabloda A, B ve C \u015firketlerinin y\u0131llar itibariyle \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 verilmi\u015f. Tabloda her \u015firketin 2004-2010 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00d6VK ortalamas\u0131 26\u2019d\u0131r. Yani bu \u015firketler ortalama olarak her y\u0131l \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00fczde 26 ekleme yapm\u0131\u015flar. Ama A \u015firketi istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde her y\u0131l \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 20 ile 32 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen oranlarda art\u0131r\u0131rken, B \u015firketi Bir y\u0131l y\u00fczde 55 art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ama di\u011fer y\u0131l y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. C \u015firketi ise her y\u0131l asl\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5-6 art\u0131\u015f yaparken 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda belki bir arsa satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in veya faaliyeti d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir geliri nedeniyle y\u00fczde 147 art\u0131\u015f sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f ve ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 26 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-01.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-15922\" title=\"husmen-01\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-01.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"442\" height=\"72\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-01.png 442w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-01-300x48.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 442px) 100vw, 442px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Evet H\u00fcsmen day\u0131, ger\u00e7ekten de ortalamaya bakmak \u00e7ok hatal\u0131 olabiliyor. Asl\u0131nda burada \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 en istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde art\u0131ran \u015firket A \u015firketidir. Ama sadece ortalamalara bakacak olsak, sanki hepsi ayn\u0131ym\u0131\u015f gibi olacakt\u0131. \u00a0Bu durumda e\u011fer 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda hepsinin \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 100 TL olsayd\u0131, acaba 2010 sonunda bu \u015firketlerin \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 ne olurdu?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00c7ok g\u00fczel soru evlat\u2026 Bak o tabloyu da haz\u0131rlad\u0131m. E\u011fer 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 \u015firketin \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 100 TL olsayd\u0131 ve yukar\u0131daki tablodaki oranlar\u0131 baz alarak hepsini art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flasayd\u0131k, hepsinin ortalama art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 26 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen A \u015firketinin \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 494 TL, B \u015firketininki 381 TL ve C\u00a0 \u015firketinin \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 da 337 TL olacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-02.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-15923\" title=\"husmen-02\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-02.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"384\" height=\"87\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-02.png 384w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-02-300x67.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 384px) 100vw, 384px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ger\u00e7ekten de \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir bilgi verdin day\u0131. Demek ki ortalama art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131na bakarken dikkatli olmak gerekiyor. \u015eimdi bir \u015fey daha soraca\u011f\u0131m. Bu ortalamalar\u0131 daha g\u00fcvenli k\u0131lacak olan ba\u015fka bir hesaplama y\u00f6ntemi var m\u0131? Yani ben ortalamaya bakmak yerine ba\u015fka nas\u0131l bir rakama bakay\u0131m da, \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 <strong>her y\u0131l<\/strong> <strong>istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde art\u0131ran<\/strong> \u015firketleri bulay\u0131m?\u00a0 \u015e\u00f6yle bir \u015fey yapabilir miyiz? \u00d6rne\u011fin 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu \u015firketlerin \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 100 TL idi, yukar\u0131daki tabloya g\u00f6re A \u015firketi 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda 494 TL oldu. Di\u011ferleri de zaten tabloda yer al\u0131yor. En son y\u0131l\u0131n rakam\u0131n\u0131 ilk y\u0131l\u0131n rakam\u0131na b\u00f6lsek? Yani 494\/100=4.94 oluyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla A \u015firketi \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 4.94 kat art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f oluyor. B \u015firketi 3.81 kat ve C \u015firketi de 3.37 kat art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f oluyor. Ne dersin H\u00fcsmen day\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bu daha da yanl\u0131\u015f olur evlat. Bir \u015firket d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ki y\u0131llar boyunca bu \u015firketin \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ayn\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015f olsun yani 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda 100 TL ike 2009 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde hala 100 Tl olsun ama 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda aniden elindeki arsa \u00e7ok de\u011ferlenip satm\u0131\u015f olsun ve \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kar yazs\u0131n ve o y\u0131lki k\u00e2r\u0131 400 TL olunca \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 da 500TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olsun. Bu durumda yine yukar\u0131daki sorunla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131rs\u0131n. Yani 2004\u2019den 2009\u2019a kadar \u00f6zvarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 \u201c0\u201d iken son y\u0131l y\u00fczde 400 olur.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Evet hakl\u0131s\u0131n H\u00fcsmen day\u0131\u2026 Ne yapaca\u011f\u0131z o zaman? Yani istikrar\u0131 veren bir form\u00fcl\u00fcn var m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Evet var\u2026 Her \u015firketin y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 oranlar\u0131n\u0131n \u015feyini hesaplayacaks\u0131n\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Neyini?????<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Yerimiz bitti, gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131m.. Sen bir hafta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015f bakal\u0131m\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ufff \u00e7ok k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fcn H\u00fcsmen day\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0Evlat unutma\u2026 \u00e7aba g\u00f6stermeden alaca\u011f\u0131n her bilgi kaybolmaya ve unutulmaya mahkumdur.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u00a0****\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Para Dergisi &#8211; 6 May\u0131s 2012 <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>H\u00fcsmen Day\u0131 Borsada Yat\u0131r\u0131m Yapmay\u0131 \u00d6\u011fretiyor -4<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 bu hafta \u00e7ok heyecanl\u0131y\u0131m. \u0130nan \u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m ve ge\u00e7en hafta senin cevap vermedi\u011fin sorumun cevab\u0131n\u0131 kendim buldum. Hani demi\u015ftin ya \u201c\u00c7al\u0131\u015fmadan elde edece\u011fin her bilgi kaybolmaya mahkumdur\u201d. Ger\u00e7ekten de \u00f6yleymi\u015f. Me\u011fer bize \u00fcniversitede bu konuyu \u00f6\u011fretmi\u015fler. \u00d6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00a0(\u00d6K) veya herhangi bir ba\u015fka veri serisinin istikrarl\u0131 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en arac\u0131 bana \u00f6\u011fretmi\u015fler. Ama ben unutmu\u015fum. \u00dcstelik de \u00dcniversite birinci s\u0131n\u0131fta \u00f6\u011fretmi\u015fler\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Aferiiinn\u2026 art\u0131k unutmazs\u0131n. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu bilgiye ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in eminim \u00e7ok \u00e7aba sarf ettin.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Evet H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00e7aba sarf ettim. \u00dc\u00e7 g\u00fcn boyunca internette ara\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131m ama ancak d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn fark\u0131na varabildim. Me\u011fer elimin alt\u0131ndaym\u0131\u015f\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Peki o zaman sen anlat ben de dinleyeyim\u2026 Her y\u0131l \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde art\u0131ran \u015firketleri nas\u0131l bir hesaplama y\u00f6ntemiyle buldun?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ge\u00e7en hafta bana bir \u00f6rnek vermi\u015ftin. A, B ve C isimli \u015firketler vard\u0131. Bunlar\u0131n her y\u0131l elde etti\u011fi \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplam\u0131\u015ft\u0131n ve en son kolonda da ortalamalar vard\u0131 ve hepsinin ortalama \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ortalamas\u0131 26 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Evet do\u011fru\u2026 Peki sen nas\u0131l bir katk\u0131 yapt\u0131n da en istikrarl\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 buldun?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloyu haz\u0131rlad\u0131m ve en son kolona \u00d6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 hesaplad\u0131m. Bu tabloda A hissesinin \u00d6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n standart sapmas\u0131 sadece 4.4 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-03.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-15924\" title=\"husmen-03\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-03.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"453\" height=\"79\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-03.png 453w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-03-300x52.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 453px) 100vw, 453px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Dur acele etme evlat. Standart sapma dedi\u011fin \u015fey nedir? Bir yerden form\u00fcl bulup, ezbere bir hesaplama m\u0131 yapt\u0131n yoksa ger\u00e7ekten de bunun\u00a0 anlam\u0131n\u0131 (\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc) \u00f6\u011frendin mi?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00d6\u011frendim day\u0131\u2026 E\u011fer bir \u015firketin \u00d6K de\u011ferleri her y\u0131l ortalamaya \u00e7ok yak\u0131n de\u011ferler oluyorsa\u00a0 veya ortalamadan fazla bir sapma g\u00f6stermiyorsa, bu durumda standart sapmalar\u0131n\u0131n (Yani ortalamadan sapmalar\u0131n\u0131n) de\u011feri \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0 \u00c7nk\u00fc b\u00fct\u00fcn de\u011ferler ortalaman\u0131n etraf\u0131nda bir yerde oluyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin bu tabloya g\u00f6re A \u015firketinin \u00d6K standart sapmas\u0131 4.4 \u00e7\u0131karken, B \u015firketininki 41 ve C \u015firketininki de 53.6 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu tablo bize g\u00f6steriyor ki \u00d6K de\u011ferleri her y\u0131l istikrarl\u0131 olan \u015firket A \u015firketidir. Di\u011fer iki \u015firketin \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck sapmalar g\u00f6sterebiliyor. Asl\u0131nda C \u015firketinin \u00d6K de\u011ferleri her y\u0131l istikrarl\u0131 giderken son y\u0131ldaki %147 b\u00fcy\u00fcme b\u00fct\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bozmu\u015f. E\u011fer 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu \u015firketin \u00d6K de\u011feri y\u00fczde 147 olmasayd\u0131 da y\u00fczde 5 olsayd\u0131 bu durumda C \u015firketinin standart sapmas\u0131 1.3 \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kafamda yeni bir soru daha olu\u015ftu\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Nedir bu soru evlat?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Asl\u0131nda C \u015firketinin \u00d6K de\u011ferleri her y\u0131l istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde y\u00fczde 5 ile 7 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015firken birden 147 de\u011feri b\u00fct\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bozuyor ve sanki B \u015firketinden daha da istikrars\u0131z bir durum olu\u015fuyor. Halbuki asl\u0131nda C \u015firketinin de\u011ferleri bana g\u00f6re B\u2019ninkinden daha istikrarl\u0131 ama standart sapma de\u011ferleri b\u00f6yle s\u00f6ylemiyor. E\u011fer sadece bir tane veri,\u00a0 standart sapmay\u0131 bu kadar bozuyorsa biz bunu nas\u0131l anlar\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Aferin evlat\u2026 G\u00fczel bir noktay\u0131 yakalad\u0131n. Ger\u00e7ekten de B \u015firketinin de\u011ferleri -10 ile 90 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015firken C\u2019ninki normalde 5 ile 7 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Ama C\u2019de yer alan 147 de\u011feri sanki C\u2019nin \u00e7ok daha fazla dalgal\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sen borsadaki 350 \u015firket i\u00e7in bu de\u011ferleri hesaplatt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belki de durumu istikrarl\u0131 olan bir \u015firket sadece bir veri y\u00fcz\u00fcnden \u00e7ok istikrars\u0131zm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnecektir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla her \u015firketin bu t\u00fcr bir tablosunu tek tek g\u00f6zle taraman gerekecek. Ama sana g\u00fczel bir haberim var. \u0130statistikte i\u015fte bu t\u00fcr durumlar\u0131 g\u00f6ren bilim adamlar\u0131 ba\u015fka bir form\u00fcl daha geli\u015ftirerek bu t\u00fcr durumlar\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 ba\u015farm\u0131\u015flar.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Yapma H\u00fcsmen day\u0131\u2026 Sen g\u00f6z\u00fcme b\u00f6yle bakmaya ba\u015flay\u0131nca korkuyorum\u2026 \u015eimdi de \u201cgit bu form\u00fcl\u00fc ara\u015ft\u0131r bul\u201d diyeceksin de\u011fil mi?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00c7ok zekisin evlat\u2026 Tastamam \u00f6yle\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ne olursun day\u0131, bari bunu s\u00f6yle\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Hay\u0131r.. tabi ki s\u00f6ylemeyece\u011fim\u2026 Ben bug\u00fcne bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en iyi analisti olmaya aday\u00a0 birine rehberlik yap\u0131yorum. Bu y\u00fczden her bilgiye \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak ula\u015facaks\u0131n. Unutma! Sana haz\u0131rca verilen her bilgi kaybolmaya mahkumdur\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 kafam iyice kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve konular i\u00e7inde kayboldum. Biz bu noktaya nas\u0131l geldik?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Evlat\u2026 dedik ki,\u00a0 biz e\u011fer her y\u0131l \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek oranda\u00a0 art\u0131ran (yani \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 ve\u00a0 faizden y\u00fcksek olan), bu kar\u0131 da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131yla s\u00fcrekli olarak payla\u015fan \u015firketleri ar\u0131yoruz. Ama sen daha hen\u00fcz \u201changi \u015firketler her y\u0131l istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor?\u201d sorusuna cevap ar\u0131yorsun. \u00d6nce bu istikrarl\u0131 \u015firketleri bulal\u0131m sonra da daha \u00e7oook analiz yapaca\u011f\u0131z\u2026 Standart sapma konusunu\u00a0 iyi yakalam\u0131\u015fs\u0131n ama C \u015firketinin durumunu a\u00e7\u0131klamakta yeterli olmad\u0131. \u00dcmidini kesme ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u2026 bu e\u011fitim sonunda sen ciddi bir analist olacaks\u0131n \u00c7EK\u0130RGE\u2026 \u015eimdi git ve C \u015firketinin durumunda oldu\u011fu gibi, asl\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 giden ama bir veri sebebiyle sanki istikrars\u0131zm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen \u015firketleri ay\u0131klatacak form\u00fcl\u00fc bul gel\u2026 haydi mar\u015f mar\u015f\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>****<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Para Dergisi &#8211; 13 May\u0131s 2012\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>H\u00fcsmen Day\u0131 Borsada Yat\u0131r\u0131m Yapmay\u0131 \u00d6\u011fretiyor &#8211; 5<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta beni \u00e7ok zorlad\u0131n. Bu hafta da \u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Ama ge\u00e7en hafta sordu\u011fun soruya net bir cevap bulamad\u0131m. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda asl\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde k\u00e2r eden ve\u00a0 \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirli bir de\u011fer etraf\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen C \u015firketinin istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sadece 2009 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki 147 de\u011feri bozuyordu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla standart sapmas\u0131 da y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu. Sen bu tip \u015firketleri ay\u0131klayabilecek bir form\u00fclden bahsettin. Ama ben bulamad\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Demek bulamad\u0131n. Bu durumda ben sana yard\u0131m edece\u011fim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc samimi bir \u015fekilde ara\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyorum.\u00a0 Bu t\u00fcr durumlarda, standart sapma de\u011ferini hesaplad\u0131ktan sonra ayr\u0131ca \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da (Skewness) hesaplamakta fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00c7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131 nedir?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bak \u015f\u00f6yle anlatay\u0131m. A \u015firketinin \u00d6K de\u011ferleri ortalamaya \u00e7ok yak\u0131n de\u011ferleri i\u00e7eriyor ve 26 de\u011ferinin sa\u011f\u0131nda ve solunda neredeyse e\u015fit da\u011f\u0131l\u0131yor. Yani bu t\u00fcr durumlarda biz \u201cnormal da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u201d dan bahsediyoruz. E\u011fer bir \u015firketin \u00d6K de\u011ferleri ortalama etraf\u0131nda normal olarak da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015fsa, bu \u015firketlerin gelecekte elde edece\u011fi \u00d6K de\u011ferleri de ortalamaya yak\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. Yani gelece\u011fi tahmin etmek istatistiksel olarak daha kolay olacakt\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte az \u00f6nce bahsetti\u011fim \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131 ne kadar \u201cs\u0131f\u0131r\u201d de\u011ferine yak\u0131n \u00e7\u0131karsa, ilgili \u00d6K de\u011ferleri o kadar normal da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Fakat \u00c7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131 ne kadar s\u0131f\u0131rdan uzakla\u015f\u0131rsa, normal da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mdan o kadar uzakla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 bu \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l hesaplayaca\u011f\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 E\u011fer \u015fimdi burada form\u00fcl verirsem \u00e7ok kafan\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olurum. Bu hesaplamay\u0131 excel\u2019de yapmak i\u00e7in<\/p>\n<p>=\u00c7ARPIKLIK(a2:F2)<\/p>\n<p>yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a2 ile f2 h\u00fccreleri aras\u0131ndaki de\u011ferlerin \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131 hesaplanm\u0131\u015f oluyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-04.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-15925\" title=\"husmen-04\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-04.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"413\" height=\"116\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-04.png 413w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-04-300x84.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 413px) 100vw, 413px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Daha \u00f6nce incelemeye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hipotetik \u015firketlerin \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131lar\u0131 bu tabloda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Dikkat edersen, B \u015firketi asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok dalgal\u0131 bir \u00d6K de\u011feri izlemesine ra\u011fmen, \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131 sadece 0.6 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f. Yani asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok dalgal\u0131 fakat belirli bir de\u011fer etraf\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n C \u015firketinin \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131 2.6 gibi bir de\u011fer \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f. Yani\u00a0 C \u015firketinin ortalama de\u011feri asl\u0131nda ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131tm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Yani H\u00fcsmen day\u0131, anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m kadar\u0131yla \u201cortalama de\u011fer ne kadar ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor ya da yans\u0131tm\u0131yor\u201d sorusuna cevap vermek i\u00e7in \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131na bakaca\u011f\u0131z. Bunu mu anlamal\u0131y\u0131m?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Evet tastamam \u00f6yle\u2026 Peki Standart sapma ile \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki emel fark nedir s\u00f6yle bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Standart sapma de\u011feri e\u011fer \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yorsa ve \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131nsa bu durumda \u00d6K de\u011ferleri ortalama de\u011ferden uzak de\u011ferler alabiliyor ve \u00e7ok sapma g\u00f6sterebiliyor. Fakat \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in normal bir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m g\u00f6steriyor, yani sadece bir veya iki de\u011fer ortalamay\u0131 asl\u0131nda fazla bozmuyor.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Evet.. \u00e7ok do\u011fru\u2026 Peki standart sapma \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck iken, \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131karsa ne anlama gelir?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bu durumda \u00d6K de\u011ferleri ortalama de\u011fere asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok \u00e7ok yak\u0131n olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen sadece bir tane de\u011fer bu ortalamay\u0131 bozmu\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Demek ki evlat ne yapacakm\u0131\u015fs\u0131n?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Neyi ne yapacak m\u0131\u015f\u0131m?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Yani borsadaki \u015firketlerin \u00a0\u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131k rakamlar\u0131na bakacakt\u0131n ve son 10-15 y\u0131lda en \u00e7ok \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131ran \u015firketleri bulacakt\u0131n. Daha sonra da bu \u015firketlerin borsadaki fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar s\u00fcrede ne kadar prim yapt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayacakt\u0131n. S\u00f6yle bakal\u0131m bu\u00a0 bilgileri \u00f6\u011frendikten sonra nas\u0131l bir yol izleyeceksin?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00d6ncelikle borsadaki her \u015firketin her y\u0131l elde etti\u011fi \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayaca\u011f\u0131m. Yani her y\u0131la ait net k\u00e2r rakam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zvarl\u0131k de\u011ferine b\u00f6lece\u011fim. Sonra bunlar\u0131n ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131 alaca\u011f\u0131m. Ayr\u0131ca standart sapma ve \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 da hesaplayaca\u011f\u0131m.\u00a0 Sonra da bunlar\u0131n i\u00e7inden en istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde her sene \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan \u015firketleri tespit edece\u011fim. Bunu yaparken de en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck standart sapma ve en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131 olan \u015firketler en istikrarl\u0131 olanlar olarak tespit edilmi\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Ard\u0131ndan da, bu \u015firketlerin hisse senedi fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde ne kadar prim yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakaca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Aferin evlat ama i\u015f bununla bitmeyecek. Sen \u00f6nce bunlar\u0131 bir haz\u0131rla ve bana getir. Daha sonra ba\u015fka sorulara da cevap vermen gerekecek. Haydi kolay gelsin\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Sa\u011folas\u0131n H\u00fcsmen day\u0131, bu \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011frendi\u011fim \u00e7ok iyi oldu. Gelecek hafta bir\u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ile sana gelece\u011fim\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>****<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Para Dergisi &#8211; 20 May\u0131s 2012\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>H\u00fcsmen Day\u0131 Borsada Yat\u0131r\u0131m Yapmay\u0131 \u00d6\u011fretiyor &#8211; 6<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta bana \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k konusunu \u00f6\u011frettin ve sevinerek eve gittim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc art\u0131k \u015firketleri hemen ay\u0131klayacakt\u0131m. Her \u015firketin \u00d6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 ve Net kar rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 buldum. Sonra da Net Kar rakam\u0131n\u0131 \u00d6zvarl\u0131k rakam\u0131na b\u00f6ld\u00fcm. \u00a0Yani \u015firketlerin hepsinin y\u0131llar itibariyle \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131k rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplad\u0131m.\u00a0 Bu i\u015f o kadar kolay g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesine ra\u011fmen, ba\u015f\u0131m yine belada. Basit bir \u00f6zvarl\u0131l\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131k rakam\u0131n\u0131 bile bulmay\u0131 beceremedi\u011fim \u015firketler oldu.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Derdini ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak anlat bakal\u0131m evlad\u0131m. Nedir derdin? Ni\u00e7in \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131k rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamakta zorland\u0131n J<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 ni\u00e7in g\u00fcl\u00fcyorsun\u2026 Bozuluyorum<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Eeeeee\u2026 ge\u00e7en hafta sana s\u00f6ylemi\u015ftim, daha \u00e7oook sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facaks\u0131n demi\u015ftim. Borsadan para kazanmak \u00f6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kadar kolay de\u011fil. Bak ka\u00e7 haftad\u0131r deliler gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorsun ve hala bir \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 rakam\u0131n\u0131 bile hesaplayamam\u0131\u015fs\u0131n.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Vallahi bu kadar zor oldu\u011funu bilseydim bu i\u015fe kak\u0131\u015fmazd\u0131m ama ba\u015flad\u0131k bir kere\u2026 Neyse derdimi anlatay\u0131m\u2026 A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda baz\u0131 \u015firketlerin 2008\u2019den bu yana ger\u00e7ek \u00f6zvarl\u0131k ve net kar rakamlar\u0131 var.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-05.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-15926\" title=\"husmen-05\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-05.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"453\" height=\"282\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-05.png 453w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/husmen-05-300x186.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 453px) 100vw, 453px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 G\u00fczel bir tablo haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015fs\u0131n evlat..<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Sa\u011folas\u0131n ama sorunum b\u00fcy\u00fck. \u015eimdi tabloda AYGAZ sat\u0131r\u0131na bakal\u0131m. Burada Sorun yok. Her y\u0131la ait Net Kar rakam\u0131n\u0131 \u00d6zsermaye rakam\u0131na b\u00f6l\u00fcyorum. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2008 t\u0131l\u0131nda aygaz\u2019\u0131n \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 (\u00d6VK) y\u00fczde 1.8 olmu\u015f. \u00a0Benzer \u015fekilde 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 18.4, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 12.1 ve 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 15.3 olmu\u015f.\u00a0 H\u00fcsmen day\u0131c\u0131\u011f\u0131m burada hi\u00e7bir sorun yok. Fakaaat\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Dur bakal\u0131m evlat, ger\u00e7ekten de AYGAZ\u2019\u0131n \u00d6VK hesdaplamalar\u0131nda sorun yok mu?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Yok tabi ki,<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Hay\u0131r ciddi bir sorun var\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00fcsmen day\u0131 ne diyorsun? Benimle kafa m\u0131 buluyorsun? Sorun Nedir?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 AYGAZ\u2019In 2008 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00f6zsermaye rakam\u0131 nedir?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Tabloda g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz i\u015fte 1400.1 (yani 1 milyar 400 milyon TL)<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Peki K\u00e2r rakam\u0131 nedir?<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 25.8 milyon TL\u2019dir.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Sen bu iki kalemi birbirine b\u00f6ld\u00fcn. Ama hat\u0131rla bakal\u0131m. Ne demi\u015ftik. \u00d6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131ran en \u00f6nemli kalem K\u00e2r\u2019d\u0131r. K\u00e2r nedeniyle \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde ka\u00e7 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r? Yani 2008 i\u00e7in \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 verisini hesaplarken, net k\u00e2r\u0131 2007\u2019nin \u00f6zvarl\u0131k rakam\u0131na b\u00f6lmen laz\u0131m. B\u00f6ylece 2007 sonundan 2008 sonuna kadar olan bir y\u0131lda \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten k\u00e2r nedeniyle y\u00fczde ka\u00e7 artm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu bulursun. Unutmaman gereken bir \u015fey var. Piyasalar beklentileri sat\u0131n al\u0131r. Yani hi\u00e7 kimse \u015fu anki Net K\u00e2r\u0131 \u00d6zvarl\u0131\u011fa b\u00f6lerek hiseye yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaz. Gelecekte elde edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc K\u00e2r\u0131 \u015fu anki \u00d6zvarl\u0131k rakam\u0131na b\u00f6ler ve e\u011fer \u015fu anki \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar \u00f6rne\u011fin banka faizlerinden daha fazla artacaksa\u00a0 o hisseye yat\u0131r\u0131m yapar. Bu y\u00fczden bir firman\u0131n ger\u00e7ek \u00f6zvarl\u0131k k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 rakam\u0131n\u0131 hesaplarken bu y\u0131l\u0131n Net K\u00e2r rakam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n \u00d6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131na b\u00f6lmelisin.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Anlad\u0131m H\u00fcsmen day\u0131. O zaman bu tabloyu bir daha haz\u0131rlamam gerekecek.\u00a0 Fakat tabloyu tekrar haz\u0131rlamadan \u00f6nce en can al\u0131c\u0131 soruyu soray\u0131m. Baz\u0131 \u015firketlerin \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 negatif (eksi) ayn\u0131 zamanda Net kar rakam\u0131 da eksi. E\u011fer iki tane negatif rakam\u0131 birbirine b\u00f6lersek sonu\u00e7 art\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0 Tabloda BISAS tekstil 2009-2011 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda sanki y\u00fczde 100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde \u00f6zvarl\u0131k karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de durum \u00f6yle de\u011fil. Bu i\u015fin i\u00e7inden nas\u0131l \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131m? Bu tip garip durumlar\u0131 sar\u0131 ve k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 olarak boyad\u0131m. Dikkat \u00e7eksin diye\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u0130yi yapm\u0131\u015fs\u0131n\u2026ama bu hafta yerimiz bu kadar gelecek hafta devam edelim\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Daha \u00f6nce sizlere &#8220;Hayat\u0131n Basit Bir Denklem&#8221; ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir yaz\u0131 yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Bu yaz\u0131y\u0131 daha sonra i\u015flerimin yo\u011funlu\u011fu nedeniyle devam ettiremi\u015ftim ama yaz\u0131 dizisini daha \u00e7ok&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":9297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15921"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15921\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15921"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}