{"id":15918,"date":"2012-05-27T11:31:11","date_gmt":"2012-05-27T09:31:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=15918"},"modified":"2012-05-27T11:31:22","modified_gmt":"2012-05-27T09:31:22","slug":"buyume-butce-ve-imkb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyume-butce-ve-imkb\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme, B\u00fct\u00e7e ve \u0130MKB"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Niye bir tek ben Avrupal\u0131lar\u2019\u0131n ak\u0131lc\u0131 davranaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum? Hafta sonunu yine \u00e7ok sevdi\u011fim korku romanlar\u0131n\u0131 okumakla ge\u00e7iriyorum: Yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131: Deutsche ve Citi hem uzunluk hem de sex, entrika ve skandal dozu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tavsiyeye \u015fayan. Her ikisinde de ortak bir kanaat var: AB\u2019nin karar alma mekanizmalar\u0131 18 Haziran\u2019a kalan k\u0131sa zamanda Grexit\u2019in PIIGS\u2019e bula\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 etkin tedbir alacak durumda de\u011fil. Dua edin, ve kemerlerinizi ba\u011flay\u0131n. Ben \u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesem de, Temmuz sonlar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrecek bir Grexit-PIIGS f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, b\u00fct\u00e7e ve dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile D\u0130BS ve \u0130MKB\u2019ye verece\u011fi zarar\u0131 hesaplamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3857083546\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Tahimlerimi twitterde TT yap\u0131p alay etmeleri i\u00e7in herkesle payla\u015fmadan \u00f6nce \u015fu noktay\u0131 hat\u0131rlay\u0131n: Benim senaryom bu de\u011fil. Ben piyasalarda k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede toparlanma bekliyorum. Temmuz ba\u015f\u0131nda Grexit\u2019in fiyatlardan tamamen \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyim. O senaryoda \u0130MKB\u2019de ilk hedef 65 bin, D\u0130BS\u2019de ise getiri %8\u2019lere kadar inebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Grexit f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 k\u00fcresel ekonomiye 3 kanaldan yay\u0131l\u0131r. En \u00f6nemlisi, g\u00fcven yani psikolojik kanal. Grexit\u2019in ard\u0131ndan \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n da iflasa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesi ve ordan bankalara bula\u015facak bir kay\u0131p dalgas\u0131 hem i\u015fd\u00fcnyas\u0131 hem de t\u00fcketicileri bir s\u00fcre harcamaktan al\u0131koyabilir. Sermaye piyasalar\u0131nda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fan\u0131r. Bu kanaldan gelecek zarara en iyimser ihtimalle k\u00fcresel GSYIH\u2019nin %0.5\u2019i civar\u0131nda olur diyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kincisi, AB ekonomisinde daralman\u0131n derinle\u015fmesinden kaynaklanan ticaret \u015foku. Buna da bir %0.3 yaz\u0131yorum. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc ve en tehlikelisi ise bankalar\u0131n birbirleri ile al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fi kesip, bir s\u00fcre kredilerde frene basmalar\u0131. Bu etkinin boyutunu hesaplamak nerdeyse imkans\u0131z, Likidite Tuza\u011f\u0131\u2019na girersek ikinci Lehman\u2019a gideriz. Hadi, makul davranal\u0131m. \u0130yi y\u00f6netilemeyen Grexit\u2019in d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden %1 \u00e7alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye gibi yat\u0131r\u0131m yapl\u0131r notunda olmayan \u00fclkelerin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin de net 50 baz puan y\u00fckselece\u011fini varsayal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eoklar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye \u00f6nce s\u0131cak para ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve T\u00fcrk \u015firketlerinin yurt\u0131d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kredi bulmakta zorluk \u00e7ekmesi ile (ya da pahal\u0131 krediyi kullanmaktan vazge\u00e7mesi) bula\u015f\u0131yor. Ard\u0131ndan, ihracat da bir miktar geriliyor. AB\u2019deki f\u0131rt\u0131nan\u0131n t\u00fcketici ve i\u015fd\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcvenini sarsararak art\u00e7\u0131l \u015foklara neden olmas\u0131 da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. E\u011fer Grexit ve art\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 Temmuz sonlar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrecekse, TCMB bu s\u00fcrenin \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc TL\u2019yi savunmak i\u00e7in istisnai g\u00fcnlerde ge\u00e7irecek.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130stisnai g\u00fcnler rejiminin ekonomiye hasar verdi\u011fini ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan KKO ve RSGE\u2019i verilerinden g\u00f6rd\u00fck. 2 ay daha s\u00fcrecek y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131, d\u0131\u015f krediye eri\u015fimin zorla\u015fmas\u0131 ve olas\u0131 art\u00e7\u0131 g\u00fcven \u015foklar\u0131 2\u00c7\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u0131f\u0131rlar. 3\u00c7\u2019de ise %0.5\u2019e kadar yava\u015flat\u0131r. 4\u00c7\u2019de aniden h\u0131zlan\u0131p %1 b\u00fcy\u00fcsek bile, y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1.5 civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/ekonomihaberyorum.haberdesin.com\/buyume-butce-ve-imkb\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Niye bir tek ben Avrupal\u0131lar\u2019\u0131n ak\u0131lc\u0131 davranaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum? Hafta sonunu yine \u00e7ok sevdi\u011fim korku romanlar\u0131n\u0131 okumakla ge\u00e7iriyorum: Yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131: Deutsche ve Citi hem uzunluk&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15918","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15918"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15918\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15918"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15918"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15918"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}