{"id":15685,"date":"2012-05-21T12:52:31","date_gmt":"2012-05-21T10:52:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=15685"},"modified":"2012-05-21T12:52:45","modified_gmt":"2012-05-21T10:52:45","slug":"enflasyon-buyume-ve-riskler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/enflasyon-buyume-ve-riskler\/","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyon, B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve Riskler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k enflasyonun y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemdeyiz. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131 i\u00e7in en iyimser tahmin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3&#8217;\u00fcn alt\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. K\u00f6t\u00fcmser tahminler s\u0131f\u0131ra kadar gidiyor. Enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda zaten y\u00fczde 11&#8217;i g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<br \/>\nUluslararas\u0131 ekonomik konjonkt\u00fcr olumlu de\u011fil. Euro&#8217;nun gelece\u011fi daha yo\u011fun tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Avrupa bankalar\u0131 hakk\u0131ndaki kayg\u0131lar giderek art\u0131yor. Yunanistan&#8217;dan kaynaklanan &#8220;bula\u015fma&#8221; korkusu giderek art\u0131yor. Piyasalar Euro&#8217;dan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n olabilece\u011fini fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131 piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan nas\u0131l beklenenden \u00e7ok daha iyi ge\u00e7tiyse, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131 da o kadar beklenenden k\u00f6t\u00fc ge\u00e7iyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2668022611\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>PARA VE MAL\u0130YE POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI<\/strong><br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde para politikas\u0131n\u0131n itibar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu y\u0131l\u0131n sonuna kadar enflasyonda kayda de\u011fer bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Enflasyonda b\u00f6yle bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde hi\u00e7bir yeri yok. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f rahats\u0131z edici noktalara varabilir. B\u00f6yle bir durum ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, para politikas\u0131, enflasyon ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p daha da fazla itibar kaybetme noktas\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fcklenebilir.<br \/>\nB\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle vergi gelirlerindeki art\u0131\u015f da yava\u015flad\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131nda bir esneklik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, harcamalardaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z kesmeden devam ediyor, hatta h\u0131zlan\u0131yor. Yap\u0131sal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor.<br \/>\nEkonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde konjonkt\u00fcrden kaynaklanan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar (otomatik istikrar mekanizmas\u0131) asl\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131 yapmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan faydal\u0131 da olabilir. Di\u011fer taraftan, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n konjonkt\u00fcr nedeniyle art\u0131yor olmas\u0131, zaten uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde, yurti\u00e7indeki beklentileri de bozup b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi daha fazla da olumsuz etkileyebilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 otomatik istikrar mekanizmas\u0131 olarak de\u011fil de, hep beklentileri bozan bir unsur olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<br \/>\nB\u00fct\u00e7ede yap\u0131sal a\u00e7\u0131k giderek art\u0131yor. Son y\u0131llarda harcamalardaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc tek defal\u0131k gelirlerle kar\u015f\u0131lanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Belki, bu y\u0131lda benzer bir \u015fekilde b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekenden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Ama, tek defal\u0131k gelir elde etmek her y\u0131l m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayabilir. Harcamalar ise devam eder. Bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenmemesi gereken bir risk.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/ht-yazarlar\/ercan-kumcu\/1146249-enflasyon-buyume-ve-riskler\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k enflasyonun y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemdeyiz. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131 i\u00e7in en iyimser tahmin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":675,"featured_media":9441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15685","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15685","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/675"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15685"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15685\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15685"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15685"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15685"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}