{"id":1550,"date":"2011-06-15T09:10:52","date_gmt":"2011-06-15T06:10:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1550"},"modified":"2011-06-15T09:57:16","modified_gmt":"2011-06-15T06:57:16","slug":"secim-olasiliklari-ve-ekonomi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/secim-olasiliklari-ve-ekonomi\/","title":{"rendered":"Se\u00e7im Olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ve Ekonomi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Se\u00e7imleri kazas\u0131z belas\u0131z tamamlad\u0131k. Se\u00e7men \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7o\u011funlukla AKP&#8217;yi\u00a0 yeniden\u00a0 iktidar yapt\u0131.\u00a0 Buna \u015fa\u015f\u0131ran da olmad\u0131.\u00a0 Olay\u0131n aritmeti\u011fi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 gelebilir. \u00d6yle ya, iktidar partisinin\u00a0 se\u00e7men say\u0131s\u0131 ve oy oran\u0131 artarken parlementodaki koltuk say\u0131s\u0131 azald\u0131. Bu \u00e7arp\u0131k bir durum ama bizim se\u00e7im d\u00fczenlemelerimizi\u00a0 bilenler i\u00e7in bunun da \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bir yan\u0131 olmamal\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1319021342\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Genel se\u00e7imler ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan her zaman risktir. Bu se\u00e7im a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da b\u00f6yleydi. Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 itibariyle farkl\u0131 riskler\u00a0 ta\u015f\u0131yan \u00fc\u00e7 olas\u0131l\u0131k vard\u0131. Se\u00e7eneklerin birisi AKP&#8217;yi iktidardan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek ve mecliste yer alan \u00f6teki partilerin tek ba\u015flar\u0131na veya koalisyon kurarak iktidar olmalar\u0131na imkan verecek\u00a0 bir oy ve koltuk da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yd\u0131. \u0130kinci olas\u0131l\u0131k AKP&#8217;nin\u00a0 tek ba\u015f\u0131na serbest\u00e7e karar verip hareket edebilece\u011fi, gerekirse anayasay\u0131 kendi bildi\u011fi gibi de\u011fi\u015ftirme imkan\u0131n\u0131 bulabilece\u011fi\u00a0 temsil e\u015fi\u011fini, yani 367 milletvekilini a\u015fmas\u0131yd\u0131. AKP&#8217;nin yine tek ba\u015f\u0131na iktidar olabilece\u011fi ama icraat\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle kendi ba\u015f\u0131na kalamayaca\u011f\u0131 say\u0131da milletvekili \u00e7\u0131kartmas\u0131 da \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc olas\u0131l\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomide karar alan akt\u00f6rler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en y\u00fcksek riskli olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n birincisi oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc se\u00e7im sonucunda iktidar\u0131n el de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 beraberinde yo\u011fun belirsizlik getirir. Belirsizlik yeni iktidar\u0131n tercihlerinin ve uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 iktisat politikalar\u0131ndaki bilinmezlik katsay\u0131s\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131r. Bilinmezlik ve belirsizlik ciddi riskler\u00a0 bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131r. Birinci olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n en y\u00fcksek riski ta\u015f\u0131yan durum olarak alg\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni budur. K\u0131sacas\u0131, iktisadi akt\u00f6rler iktidar de\u011fi\u015ftirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan se\u00e7imleri sevmezler.<\/p>\n<p>Akt\u00f6rlerin bunun tam tersini, se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin ikinci olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, yani mevcut iktidar\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7le donat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u015fekilde yeniden iktidar olmas\u0131n\u0131 sevecekleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. \u00c7\u0131plak mant\u0131k b\u00f6yle s\u00f6ylese de ger\u00e7ekte durum b\u00f6yle de\u011fildir. Akt\u00f6rler b\u00f6yle bir olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n iktidar\u0131 otoriter ve m\u00fcdahaleci bir yap\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrebilece\u011finden kayg\u0131lan\u0131rlar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, \u00f6zellikle ekonomide mutlakiyet\u00e7i- m\u00fcdahaleci\u00a0 tav\u0131rlar\u0131n bilinmezli\u011fi ve belirsizli\u011fi besledi\u011fini ya\u015fayan \u00f6rneklerinden \u00f6\u011frenir, bilirler.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda se\u00e7im sonucu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en fazla tercih edilen olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir.\u00a0 Tercihleri ve icraat\u0131 bilinen, b\u00fcy\u00fck riskler yaratmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nm\u0131\u015f, ne yapaca\u011f\u0131 kolayca kestirilebilen, genelde memnuniyet sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f olan bir iktidar\u0131n, benzer g\u00fc\u00e7 imkanlar\u0131yla, se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda da iktidar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek olmas\u0131\u00a0 riski en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck se\u00e7enek olarak alg\u0131lan\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Dikkat ederseniz bu se\u00e7imde bizde de benzer bir tercihler dizisi \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ortaya. En y\u00fcksek riski bar\u0131nd\u0131ran birinci olas\u0131l\u0131k, yani AKP&#8217;nin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 ve iktidar\u0131n el de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi durumu, bu se\u00e7imde g\u00fcndeme bile gelmedi. Riski en y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k bdaha ba\u015ftan d\u0131\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in 2011 se\u00e7iminin\u00a0 ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1951809675\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde a\u00e7\u0131k ya da \u00f6rt\u00fck bi\u00e7imde a\u00e7\u0131klanan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ve tercihler akt\u00f6rlerin ikinci olas\u0131\u011f\u0131 da istemediklerini g\u00f6steriyordu. Yerlilere k\u0131yasla yabanc\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin bu noktada daha a\u00e7\u0131k ve net bir tav\u0131r segilemeleri de san\u0131r\u0131m bu se\u00e7imin ilgin\u00e7 \u00f6zelliklerinden birisiydi. Genel olarak akt\u00f6rlerin AKP&#8217;nin yeniden iktidar olmas\u0131n\u0131n istedikleri fakat\u00a0 iktidar\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir oy oran\u0131 ve milletvekili say\u0131s\u0131 ile mutlak- otoriter bir yap\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesine de raz\u0131 olmad\u0131klar\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yordu. Bu ko\u015fullu tercihin nedeni ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek mutlakiyet\u00e7i bir yap\u0131n\u0131n akt\u00f6rler taraf\u0131ndan y\u00fcksek riskli olarak alg\u0131lanmas\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7ta se\u00e7imin iktisadi akt\u00f6rlerin en \u00e7ok tercih ettikleri \u015fekilde sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Temel tercihleri, politika se\u00e7i\u015fleri, icraat\u0131 bilinen ve destek alan AKP&#8217;nin, herhangi bir ilave g\u00fc\u00e7le donat\u0131lmadan, tekrar iktidar yap\u0131lmas\u0131 riski en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck se\u00e7enekti. Akt\u00f6rler bunun ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en iyi se\u00e7enek oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordu. Se\u00e7imin sonucu da b\u00f6yle oldu. Hay\u0131rl\u0131s\u0131 olsun.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Taner BERKSOY<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Se\u00e7imleri kazas\u0131z belas\u0131z tamamlad\u0131k. Se\u00e7men \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7o\u011funlukla AKP&#8217;yi\u00a0 yeniden\u00a0 iktidar yapt\u0131.\u00a0 Buna \u015fa\u015f\u0131ran da olmad\u0131.\u00a0 Olay\u0131n aritmeti\u011fi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 gelebilir. \u00d6yle ya, iktidar partisinin\u00a0 se\u00e7men&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1550"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1550\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}