{"id":15421,"date":"2012-05-15T08:05:43","date_gmt":"2012-05-15T06:05:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=15421"},"modified":"2012-05-15T10:05:57","modified_gmt":"2012-05-15T08:05:57","slug":"daha-az-mi-yumusak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/daha-az-mi-yumusak\/","title":{"rendered":"Daha Az m\u0131 Yumu\u015fak?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa&#8217;daki geli\u015fmeler risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkiledi\u011fi s\u00fcrece, kura bask\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131ndan, TCMB yine y\u00fcksek faize ba\u015fvurur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2217595971\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finin ortalar\u0131na geldik. Mevcut bilgiler T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2011\u2019e k\u0131yasla olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir oranda ama \u2018yumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u2019 senaryosuna uygun bir bi\u00e7imde b\u00fcy\u00fcmekte oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<br \/>\n\u015eubat ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimi geli\u015fmelerini de\u011ferlendirirken mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f verileri kullan\u0131rken dikkatli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) son enflasyon raporunda bu sorunu ele alan yararl\u0131 bir kutu var (sayfa 57). Ar\u0131nd\u0131rma i\u015flemi i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan veri d\u00f6neminde yap\u0131lan ufak bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik bile, olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7abiliyor oradaki analize g\u00f6re. Mesela mevcut resmi ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f verilere g\u00f6re, bir d\u00f6nem \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla son d\u00f6rt \u00e7eyrektir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Oysa ar\u0131nd\u0131rmada kullan\u0131lan veri d\u00f6neminin ba\u015f\u0131ndan az\u0131c\u0131k k\u0131rp\u0131nca, d\u00f6nemsel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n 2011\u2019in ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde dibe vurdu\u011fu, ondan sonra da y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018saptan\u0131yor\u2019!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kredi arz\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nBu sorundan kurtulman\u0131n bir yolu \u2018eski usul\u2019 y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim oranlar\u0131na bakmak. B\u00f6yle bak\u0131nca, \u00fc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k \u00fcretimlerin bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131, 2011\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor: S\u0131ras\u0131yla, y\u00fczde 14.4, 8, 7.6, 6.5 ve 2.8. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f devam eder mi? Yoksa resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda belirtildi\u011fi gibi ikinci \u00e7eyrekten itibaren b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131nda bir miktar y\u00fckselme g\u00f6zlenir mi?<br \/>\nSon haftalarda bankalar\u0131n kredi arz\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6zleniyor. Lira cinsinden kredilerin sekiz haftal\u0131k ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6nemsel de\u011fi\u015fimine bak\u0131nca ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan resim \u015fu: 2011\u2019in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalama haftal\u0131k art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 0.59\u2019du. Temmuz ba\u015f\u0131 ile ekim sonu aras\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.41\u2019e, kas\u0131m ba\u015f\u0131-nisan sonu aras\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 0.31\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Oysa son be\u015f haftan\u0131n (en son nisan sonu verisi var) ortalama art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 0.46 oldu. Dolar cinsinden \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen yabanc\u0131 para kredilerin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki hareketleri lira cinsinden olanlar ile ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde ancak daha \u015fiddetli. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, son be\u015f haftadaki y\u00fckseli\u015f daha belirgin.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.radikal.com.tr\/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalYazar&amp;ArticleID=1088047&amp;Yazar=FATIH-OZATAY&amp;CategoryID=101\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa&#8217;daki geli\u015fmeler risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkiledi\u011fi s\u00fcrece, kura bask\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131ndan, TCMB yine y\u00fcksek faize ba\u015fvurur. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finin ortalar\u0131na geldik. Mevcut bilgiler T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15421","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15421"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15421\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15421"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15421"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15421"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}