\u0130lk d\u00f6rt ayl\u0131k kredi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ve ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ciro ve sipari\u015f endekslerinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7lar, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nem geli\u015fmelerinin yar\u0131s\u0131 bir geli\u015fme ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130lk iki aydaki tedirginlik ve g\u00fcvensizli\u011fin ise yava\u015f yava\u015f ortadan kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Mart’tan itibaren bir canlanman\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 rakamlar ortaya koyuyor.\u00a0 Bu da y\u0131l sonunda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 5-6 seviyesinde sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131 tahminin yapanlar\u0131 do\u011frular nitelikte g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.
\n\u0130ki haber var \u00f6n\u00fcmde. Birisi “ilk d\u00f6rt ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yava\u015flamay\u0131” ortaya koyuyor. Di\u011feri T\u00fcik’in Mart ay\u0131 ciro ve sipari\u015f endekslerindeki rakam\u0131. Ben, ciro ve sipari\u015f endekslerinin \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n daha uygun olaca\u011f\u0131na bak\u0131p o sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ele alaca\u011f\u0131m. Bu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131lla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131mda rakamlar hemen hemen yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor\u2026
\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk d\u00f6rt ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7.6 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu y\u0131l ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 4.6 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f. Yani neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131 oran\u0131nda kredi kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Ama tek tek bu y\u0131l\u0131n aylar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda Ocak’ta binde 5 gerileme oldu\u011funu, \u015eubat’ta binde 4 art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Mart’ta y\u00fczde 3.3 gibi \u00f6nemli bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan Nisan’da y\u00fczde 1.3’e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu da ilk aylarda bir “g\u00fcvensizlik ortam\u0131” ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bunun nedenine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za ya\u015fanan k\u00fcresel olumsuzluklar ve Uluslar aras\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131n y\u0131la girerken T\u00fcrkiye 2012 de\u011ferlendirmelerinde ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerindeki olumsuzluklar \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.
\nCiro ve sipari\u015f endekslerine ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda Mart ay\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re ciro endeksi y\u00fczde 13.6, sipari\u015f endeksinde y\u00fczde 16 art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ilk \u00e7eyrek sonu\u00e7lar\u0131nda da ciro endeksinin y\u00fczde 15.8, sipari\u015f endeksinin y\u00fczde 17.7 art\u0131\u011f\u0131na tan\u0131k oluyoruz. Ama ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ciro endeksi y\u00fczde 29.5, sipari\u015f endeksi y\u00fczde 30.3 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu sonu\u00e7lar ciro ve sipari\u015f endekslerinin de bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor.
\nBu iki haberden sonu\u00e7, y\u0131la tedirginlik ve g\u00fcvensizlik i\u00e7inde girilmesinin ard\u0131ndan Mart ay\u0131nda bir canlanma oldu\u011funu, ancak Nisan ay\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle Yunanistan’da ve Suriye’de ya\u015fanan olumsuzluklarla yeniden frene bas\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.
\nBuna ra\u011fmen T\u00fcrkiye’nin y\u0131lsonu b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini uluslar aras\u0131 yeni bir \u00f6nemli olumsuzluk ya da yurt i\u00e7i siyasal sorun ya\u015fanmamas\u0131 durumunda y\u00fczde 5-6 olarak beklemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>