Takt\u0131 bu adam kemer s\u0131kma meselesine dedi\u011finizi duyar gibiyim. Hakk\u0131n\u0131z da var. Bir s\u00fcredir, neredeyse \u00fcst \u00fcste,\u00a0 kemer s\u0131kma (austerity) politikalar\u0131 ile ilgili yaz\u0131lar yaz\u0131yorum. Ama bu soruna takan tek ben de\u011filim. Bug\u00fcnlerde hemen herkes bu meseleyle ilgili.
\nK\u00fcresel kriz s\u00fcrecinde ekonomileri yeniden y\u00fczd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in kamu kaynakl\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck hacimli talep-harcama enjeksiyonlar\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. O tarihte ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen bu politikalar bir birine ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 s\u00fcreci tetikledi. \u00d6nce kamu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Bu bor\u00e7lanma gere\u011fini y\u00fckseltti.\u00a0 Artan bor\u00e7lanma da bor\u00e7 stoklar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcterek bor\u00e7lanma gere\u011finin daha da y\u00fckselmesine neden oldu.
\nBu zincirleme s\u00fcreci hemen her \u00fclke ya\u015fad\u0131. Ama hepsinde beklenen sonu\u00e7 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. Baz\u0131s\u0131 kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131- kamu borcu b\u00fcy\u00fcklerinde g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselmelerle ekonomilerini tekrar b\u00fcy\u00fcme ray\u0131na oturtabildiler. Kimilerinde ise bu ba\u015far\u0131lamad\u0131.
\n*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *
\nGeni\u015flemeci politikalarla ekonomilerini yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcme ray\u0131na oturtmay\u0131 ba\u015faramayan \u00fclkelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fcyeleri geliyor. Bu ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n t\u00fcm Avrupa co\u011frafyas\u0131na oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek de do\u011fru olmaz.\u00a0 \u00d6rne\u011fin Almanya krizden g\u00f6rece dengeli bir kamu maliyesi ve makul b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131yla \u00e7\u0131kan \u00fclkelerden birisi. Ama \u00f6zellikle k\u0131tan\u0131n\u00a0 g\u00fcney kesiminde yerle\u015fik ve Euro alan\u0131 i\u00e7inde yer alan \u00fclkelerin hemen hepsinde, de\u011fi\u015fik dozlarda, s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcyen kamu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131, y\u00fckselen bor\u00e7lara ra\u011fmen ekonomilerini yeniden pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ray\u0131na sokamad\u0131 bu \u00fclkeler. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, y\u00fckselen bor\u00e7lulu\u011fa ra\u011fmen bu \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin artan kamu harcamalar\u0131 (tabii b\u00fcy\u00fcyen kamu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131) ile k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rt\u0131lmas\u0131na devam edilmesi gerekti.
\nGeni\u015flemeci olarak nitelenen bu politikalar\u0131 uzun s\u00fcre devam ettirmek zor. Bu t\u00fcr politikalar\u00a0 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmelerini k\u0131s\u0131tlayan sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretiyorlar. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u00f6nemli k\u0131s\u0131tlardan birisi\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131-artan bor\u00e7lanma dinami\u011finin \u00fclkeye d\u00f6n\u00fck risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fctmesi. Risk alg\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi finans\u00f6rlerin bor\u00e7 verme i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7ta finansman\u0131 gereken bor\u00e7 miktar\u0131 artarken finansman kaynaklar\u0131nda bir kuruma \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ortaya. Bor\u00e7lanma imkan\u0131n\u0131n eski bor\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00e7evrilmesine bile yetmedi\u011fi a\u015famada bor\u00e7lu \u00fclke bor\u00e7 \u00f6demesini yapam\u0131yor (default).\u00a0 S\u00fcre\u00e7 karakolda bitiyor. \u00dclke krize s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyor.
\nBu s\u00fcre\u00e7te unutulmamas\u0131 gereken bir nokta var. Bor\u00e7 \u00f6demedi\u011fi i\u00e7in krize giren bir \u00fclkede bor\u00e7lanma imkan\u0131 artm\u0131yor, kaynaklar bolla\u015fm\u0131yor. Tersine ekonomi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclerek bor\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00f6deyecek kayna\u011f\u0131 kendi i\u00e7inde yaratmak zorunda kal\u0131yor.
\nK\u0131sacas\u0131, kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131- bor\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dinami\u011fi ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi tetiklemeyi beceremeyen \u00fclkeler yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nce k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye zorlan\u0131yorlar. Kemer s\u0131kma (austerity) politikalar\u0131n\u0131n hikmeti de bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeyi sa\u011flamak.<\/p>