{"id":15233,"date":"2012-05-10T08:27:56","date_gmt":"2012-05-10T06:27:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=15233"},"modified":"2012-05-10T08:28:13","modified_gmt":"2012-05-10T06:28:13","slug":"acin-su-perdeleri-artik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/acin-su-perdeleri-artik\/","title":{"rendered":"A\u00e7\u0131n \u015eu Perdeleri Art\u0131k"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bir kuruma \u00f6vg\u00fc d\u00fczerken g\u00f6zlerinin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki perdeyi hafif\u00e7e de olsa kald\u0131rmay\u0131 denese bu \u00f6vg\u00fc d\u00fczenler, daha yararl\u0131 olmayacak m\u0131?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4263985859\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6nce \u015funu makul g\u00f6rmek gerekiyor: Bir y\u0131l ya da iki y\u0131l enflasyon hedeften sapabilir. Hedefinizi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z ve bu hedefe g\u00f6re \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131, faizlerini ve fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 belirlemelerini istedi\u011finiz kesimlere sapmalar\u0131n nedenlerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131ktan ve bu sapmalar\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in elinizden geleni yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131za onlar\u0131 ikna ettikten sonra bir sorun yok.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye 2002 y\u0131l\u0131ndan beri enflasyon hedeflemesi uyguluyor. 2006\u2019ya kadar \u00f6rt\u00fck, sonra da a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde. 2006\u2019dan bu yana d\u00f6rt kez hedefin \u00e7ok yukar\u0131s\u0131nda kald\u0131 enflasyon. Son olarak 2011\u2019de hedef y\u00fczde 5.5 iken enflasyon y\u00fczde 10.4 oldu. Alt\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bu performans enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye zarar veriyor. \u00dcstelik 2011 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmede 2010 sonundan itibaren uygulanan para politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir rol\u00fc var.<br \/>\nBunun en a\u00e7\u0131k kan\u0131t\u0131na sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131mda yer verdim. 2010\u2019un sonlar\u0131ndan 2011\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na kadar olan d\u00f6nemde Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) d\u00f6viz kurunu artt\u0131rma politikas\u0131 uygulad\u0131. Bu politika sayesinde, di\u011fer y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomilerinin paralar\u0131 de\u011ferlenip rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fc t\u00f6rp\u00fclenirken liran\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmesiyle rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn artt\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na, hep raporlar\u0131nda i\u015faret etti. TCMB\u2019nin bu kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 yapmak i\u00e7in kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkeler ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enflasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131nca ac\u0131 ger\u00e7ek ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor:<br \/>\nTCMB\u2019nin dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 on \u00fclkenin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnde 2011\u2019de enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, birinde de\u011fi\u015fmiyor, alt\u0131s\u0131nda ise art\u0131yor. En y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019da (2.6 puan), ondan sonraki en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f ise Polonya ve \u015eili\u2019de (1.5 puan). Bu on \u00fclkenin 2011 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki enflasyonlar\u0131 ile 2010 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki enflasyonlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 sadece 0.4 puan. Yani, T\u00fcrkiye ile ayn\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullarda ya\u015fayan bu \u00fclkelerde enflasyon 2011 sonunda, 2010 sonuna k\u0131yasla ortalamada sadece 0.4 puan y\u00fckselmi\u015f. Oysa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyon ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde 4 puan artt\u0131! TCMB\u2019nin yeni para politikas\u0131n\u0131 her t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00f6nyarg\u0131dan uzak, m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca bilimsel bir zemine oturtarak tart\u0131\u015fmak gerekiyor. Ne yaz\u0131k ki bu t\u00fcr \u00e7abalar genellikle desteklenmedi, hatta gazete k\u00f6\u015felerindeki polemiklerle engellenmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Oysa o kadar \u00f6nemli ki. Bir \u00f6rnek: TCMB 2010 sonundan itibaren zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Ama\u00e7, kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 azaltmakt\u0131. Bunun, Bankac\u0131l\u0131k D\u00fczenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK) devreye girmeden neden bir i\u015fe yaramayaca\u011f\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bu k\u00f6\u015fede \u00e7ok say\u0131da yaz\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ger\u00e7ekten de BDDK sekiz ay sonra devreye girene kadar kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 yava\u015flamad\u0131. Haziran 2011\u2019de al\u0131nan BDDK kararlar\u0131 ise olduk\u00e7a etkili oldu. \u0130kinci \u00f6rnek ise yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ne olaca\u011f\u0131 belirsiz iken yukar\u0131da de\u011finilen liraya de\u011fer kaybettirme politikas\u0131. Avrupa 2011\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda kar\u0131\u015f\u0131nca, \u00e7ok \u00e7abuk bu politikan\u0131n tam tersine d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.radikal.com.tr\/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalYazar&amp;ArticleID=1087530&amp;Yazar=FATIH-OZATAY&amp;CategoryID=101\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bir kuruma \u00f6vg\u00fc d\u00fczerken g\u00f6zlerinin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki perdeyi hafif\u00e7e de olsa kald\u0131rmay\u0131 denese bu \u00f6vg\u00fc d\u00fczenler, daha yararl\u0131 olmayacak m\u0131? \u00d6nce \u015funu makul g\u00f6rmek gerekiyor: Bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15233","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15233"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15233\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15233"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15233"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15233"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}